IRB World Rankings
Four in the running for fourth place
IRB
November 18, 2008
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The pool draw for Rugby World Cup 2011 in New Zealand will take place on December 1 © IRB
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Argentina may currently occupy fourth position in the IRB World Rankings, but were they to lose to Ireland at Croke Park this weekend then they could lose that position to England, France or Wales depending on results elsewhere.

The race to occupy that fourth spot come the end of November has added a fresh twist to the autumn internationals in Europe with the position meaning they will not be drawn in the same pool as New Zealand, South Africa or Australia for RWC 2011.

That RWC 2011 Pool Allocation Draw takes place on 1 December in London, when for the first time the IRB World Rankings will be used to seed the 12 teams which qualified automatically from the 2007 tournament in France.

New Zealand, South Africa and Australia cannot slip out of the top three positions this weekend, but fourth place is still up for grabs with only Argentina playing a side below them of the quartet still dreaming of securing a place in band one for the Draw.

The only way Wales can jump from seventh to fourth is by beating New Zealand for the first time since December 1953 - although they would still also need Argentina, England and France to all lose to Ireland, South Africa and Australia respectively.

For France to leapfrog England and Argentina into fourth they would need to beat Australia at the Stade de France by more than 15 points and the other three contenders all lose - or that Wales do not beat the All Blacks by a similar margin.

Were Argentina, England, France and Wales all to suffer defeat on Saturday then the Pumas would retain fourth spot by just over a tenth from England, although Wales would climb above France into sixth place by less than a tenth.

However if the quartet all lose with Argentina going down by more than 15 points to Ireland they would swap places with England, even if Martin Johnson's side were also to lose by a similar margin against South Africa at Twickenham.

This means that in the event of a heavy loss for Argentina - allied to an England defeat and wins for Wales and France - then the Pumas could actually end the weekend with an IRB World Ranking of seventh, so placing them in band two for the Draw.

Even victory over Ireland may not be enough to keep Argentina in fourth position. It should be providing England do not also manage to defeat the side that beat them in the RWC 2007 final 13 months ago by more than 15 points.

If England do secure this convincing victory then - even if Argentina also beat Ireland by a similar margin - they would sneak above the Pumas into fourth spot by less than two tenths simply by being able to gain more points by defeating a side above them.

Wales cannot slip any lower than seventh position, even with a heavy loss to the All Blacks at the Millennium Stadium and an emphatic Ireland win over Argentina as this would still leave the two sides separated by around half a rating point.

Ireland, though, can slip to ninth - and so into band three for the RWC 2011 Pool Allocation Draw - with a defeat by Argentina. They would swap places with Scotland, providing that Frank Hadden's side had not slipped up against lower ranked Canada.

A Scotland victory will not improve their own rating points, but if they were to suffer a third defeat in four outings against Canada then they would slip below Fiji and also potentially Italy with the Canadians jumping above Georgia and Tonga into 13th.

There is also the possibility of changes to the top three with Australia able to climb above South Africa if they win in Paris and the Springboks see their five-match winning streak come to an end against England.

On the other hand, the world champions could actually return to the summit of the IRB World Rankings providing that they beat England by more than 15 points and New Zealand lose by the same margin to Wales.

Away from the battle to improve rankings ahead of the Rugby World Cup 2011 Pool Allocation Draw, there are three other internationals which could have an impact on the IRB World Rankings this weekend.

The first takes place in Tokyo where Japan will be looking to repeat their 29-19 defeat of USA last weekend. A victory will only improve their rating by around three tenths to leave them 16th and the USA 19th.

However a first Eagles victory over Japan since the RWC 2003 pool stages and they would climb above Russia to sit directly below the Japanese, who would slip one beneath Romania. A win by more than 15 points and USA would actually climb above Japan into 17th.

Meanwhile the South American Championship concludes with Uruguay tackling Chile in Montevideo on Saturday in the knowledge that a defeat could see them lose their position as the region's second highest side behind Argentina.

Uruguay would remain 20th with a draw or win, but would slide one or two places depending on the margin of defeat by Chile. The visitors will rise one to 23rd - above Portugal - with victory, but could climb above Uruguay to 21st with a convincing win.

The remaining match sees Moldova travel to Prague to face the Czech Republic in Division 2A of the European Nations Cup, a competition which doubles as the region's qualifying process for Rugby World Cup 2011.

Moldova are now the higher ranked side, having climbed five places to 31st after beating Belgium last weekend, while the Czechs slide four to 39th on the back of their loss on home soil against lower ranked Poland.

A win for Czech Republic and they would bounce back two or three positions depending on the margin of victory with Moldova losing all those places they gained last weekend and potentially sliding further to 38th with a heavy loss.

By contrast if Moldova can claim the victory that will take them to the top of Division 2A then they would edge closer to their highest ever position with a two place climb to 29th and cause their hosts to slide another three or four places further down the rankings.

The other European Nations Cup match of the weekend, between Greece and Israel in Division 3C, will not impact the IRB World Rankings as Greece are not yet a Member Union of the International Rugby Board and therefore not ranked.

Latest IRB World Rankings: (as of November 17, 2008)

1 (1) New Zealand 92.41pts
2 (2) South Africa 88.45
3 (3) Australia 86.70
4 (5) Argentina 82.82
5 (4) England 82.11
6 (6) France 80.13
7 (7) Wales 79.58
8 (8) Ireland 77.18
9 (9) Scotland 76.76
10 (11) Fiji 75.24
11 (10) Italy 74.64
12 (12) Samoa 72.57
13 (13) Tonga 70.05
14 (14) Georgia 69.43
15 (15) Canada 69.12
16 (16) Japan 67.74
17 (17) Romania 67.20
18 (18) Russia 64.63
19 (19) USA 63.86
20 (20) Uruguay 62.55

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