Rugby World Cup
Preview: France vs. Ireland -- Irish desperate to end French jinx
Michael Beattie
October 10, 2015
Michalak and Sexton will be crucial

France and Ireland have been reading from similar scripts so far in this Rugby World Cup: arrive as dark horses -- with Wales, they are the best teams to have never won the competition - and roll through the pool with a hat-trick of performances best categorised as the underwhelming side of steady. But the auditions are over; now the real drama begins. The sides have faced off three times at previous World Cups, with France winning all three, but Ireland have not lost to the French since 2011, winning the last two. The Six Nations winners for the past two seasons face the 2011 World Cup finalists with the privilege of avoiding world champions New Zealand, and facing Argentina in the quarterfinals, at stake. As big a reward as two qualified teams could fight for, and - should both side hit their straps in Cardiff -- as fine a contest as a neutral could ask for.

Jonathan Sexton
Jonathan Sexton© Mike Hewitt/Getty Images

Team news

France make just two changes to the team that faced Canada, the fewest changes Les Bleus have made between world Cup pool matches since 1991. Louis Picamoles and Noa Nakaitaci, both rested after 160 minutes in France's opening fixtures, return - Picamoles at the base of the scrum, shunting Damien Chouly to the openside as Bernard Le Roux drops to the bench, and Nakaitaci a straight swap for wing Remy Grosso.

Captain Paul O'Connell ties Brian O'Driscoll's World Cup caps record for Ireland with his 17th appearance in another largely unchanged side. In all there are just three switches from the XV that eased past Georgia: Cian Healy replaces Jack McGrath in the front row, Devin Toner takes Iain Henderson's spot in the second row and Rob Kearney gets the nod at fullback, with Simon Zebo missing out on a spot in the matchday 23.

France: Scott Spedding, Noa Nakaitaci, Mathieu Bastareaud, Wesley Fofana, Brice Dulin, Frederic Michalak, Sebastien Tillous-Borde; Eddy Ben Arous, Guilhem Guirado, Rabah Slimani, Pascal Pape, Yoann Maestri, Thierry Dusautoir (captain), Damien Chouly, Louis Picamoles.

Replacements: Benjamin Kayser, Vincent Debaty, Nicolas Mas, Alexandre Flanquart, Bernard Le Roux, Morgan Parra, Remi Tales, Alexandre Dumoulin.

Ireland: Rob Kearney, Tommy Bowe, Keith Earls, Robbie Henshaw, Dave Kearney, Jonathan Sexton, Conor Murray; Cian Healy, Rory Best, Mike Ross, Devin Toner, Paul O'Connell (captain), Peter O'Mahony, Sean O'Brien, Jamie Heaslip.

Replacements: Richardt Strauss, Jack McGrath, Nathan White, Iain Henderson, Chris Henry, Eoin Reddan, Ian Madigan, Luke Fitzgerald,

Frederic Michalak
Frederic Michalak© Mike Hewitt/Getty Images

Key head-to-head

France have made no secret of the fact that they will be targeting Johnny Sexton, well known to the squad at both international and club level from his time with Racing Metro. And Sexton will expect nothing less -- he was carted off with a head injury in the 2014 Six Nations clash in Paris as Ireland ran out 22-20 winners to secure the title, and returned from a concussion for the return fixture in Dublin -- another Irish win, but one in which Mathieu Bastareaud hunted him down relentlessly throughout. Protecting the pivot will once again be pivotal for the men in green, while French No. 10 Frederic Michalak has been a revelation during this World Cup with virtuoso performances against Italy and Canada. Can he produce the same against an outfit as accomplished as the Irish, or will coach Joe Schmidt have a trick up his sleeve?

O'Connell: France a mountain of a challenge
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Key stats

* France have won 55 of the 93 Tests between the sides, with Ireland winning 31. Seven have been drawn, but two of those seven draws have come in the last four years -- 17-17 in 2012 and 13-13 in 2013.

* The front row trio of Cian Healy, Rory Best and Mike Ross line up together for the 30th time, an international first in the professional era and an all-time first for a northern hemisphere side. The record for all Test rugby is 36, set by Tony Daly, Phil Kearns, and Ewen McKenzie of Australia in the 1990s.

* Nicolas Mas comes will equal Sylvain Marconnet's French record of 84 caps for a prop if he comes off the bench. The world record is held by Gethin Jenkins who has played his 123 tests for Wales and the British & Irish Lions.

Ugly Ireland victory will give France hope
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Odds

With both sides already through to the knockout stages, the risk-reward balance will be a little skewed and tries may be at a premium neither side can face paying. Unibet will pay out 20/1 for a try-free contest.

Weather

It'll be another pleasant afternoon in Cardiff -- not that the players will notice underneath the Millennium Stadium roof.

Prediction

As thankless tasks go, calling this one is up there. Both sides knowing that defeat is not (quite) a death sentence for their World Cup prospects, but that didn't stop Wales and Australia from serving up one of the matches of the tournament on Saturday. Ireland may rue the absence of the departed Jared Payne in the centre, handing Keith Earls and Robbie Henshaw an ominous midfield battle against Bastareaud and Wesley Fofana, while Cian Healy's experience in the scrum will be critical. If France can control the breakdown influence of Peter O'Mahony and Sean O'Brien, they will win - but a single score either way will settle it.

© ESPN Sports Media Ltd.

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