Ireland v Australia
Ireland set for another southern scalp
Sam Bruce
November 20, 2014
Jonathan Sexton is the key man
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There's just a little bit of symmetry to this week's clash between Ireland and Australia at Aviva Stadium. This time last year, it was New Zealander Joe Schmidt who'd barely wet his feet in the Test arena. The Kiwi was just three games into his Ireland stint as he tried to continue an unbeaten start to international rugby against the Wallabies in Dublin. Schmidt received a major reality check when his side was easily brushed aside 32-15, the Wallabies scoring four tries in a superb attacking display. Fast forward 12 months and its Michael Cheika who's the new man on the Test block. As was the case with Schmidt 12 months ago, Cheika will pace about Landsdowne Road knowing all too well this is the biggest challenge of his short tenure so far. The Wallabies coach has, however, already received a wake-up call; last week's 29-25 loss to France ended the honeymoon period prematurely, and questions about the Wallabies' ability to play his up-tempo style of rugby are starting to fly. Ireland can cast further doubt on the capabilities of Cheika's Wallabies; Schmidt, one year in, has them flying.
In formIt's been a whirlwind few months for Ireland fly-half Jonny Sexton. After announcing he would be returning to Leinster next season after two years in France with Racing Metro, Sexton has broken his jaw, been nominated as one of five nominees - and the only European - for the World Rugby Player of the Year and then kicked 16 points as Ireland recorded an impressive 29-15 win over South Africa. Sexton is the northern hemisphere's premier fly-half and, with a greater licence to move the ball under Schmidt, he is capable of causing plenty of problems for a Wallabies side likely to be back-tracking under the pressure of a strong Irish pack. James Slipper forms part of a Wallabies front-row consistently at the mercy of opposition packs, but little of the blame can be laid at the feet of the man who is arguably Australia's most-consistent Test performer. On a Paris night when even the seemingly mistake-free Israel Folau got a case of the dropsies, Slipper set about his usual business and made headway against a resilient French defensive unit. A touch of footwork at the line often sees Slipper beat the first defender, and only the Wallabies' reputation at scrum time denies him a position as one of world rugby's finest props. Team News
Out of formThere was once a time, probably when dinosaurs roamed the earth, where an Irish centre pairing without either of the names Brian O'Driscoll or Gordon D'Arcy was common place. So you'll understand if a few Dubliners were on the lookout for Pterodactyls a fortnight ago, when neither name showed up on the team-sheet against South Africa. O'Driscoll has of course retired, but D'Arcy is still running about at the age of 34 and made his comeback from injury against Georgia last weekend. An injury to New Zealand-born Ulsterman Jarryd Payne sees D'Arcy retain his place from last week, and book a showdown with recalled Matt Toomua at inside centre, but he has to prove he is more than a light of former years. Michael Hooper has been one of the leading lights in Australian rugby this season, winning the Greg Growden Medal as Super Rugby Player of the Year and leading the Wallabies poll, but he has been a little below par on this end-of-year tour of Europe and could easily be showing the effects of a long and stressful season in which he has inherited both the Waratahs and Australia captaincy. He was unable to make ground with ball in hand in Paris, and questions were raised after the game about his performance in tight.
Key battleBall retention is all well and good, but 10-plus phase sets mean little if you're not making any impact on the defensive line. The Wallabies' inability to encroach on the advantage line against France meant the visitors found themselves moving from side to side in Paris, with the likes of Bernard Foley and Christian Leali'ifano finding themselves as one-out runners. The lack of a damaging ball-runner either at lock or in the back-row is holding the Wallabies back. This isn't a problem for Ireland, with veteran lock Paul O'Connell and No.8 Jamie Heaslip capable of getting the hosts on the front foot. If Ireland dominate the advantage line, it could be a long night for the Wallabies.
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Odds Ireland are slight favourites at $1.82; Australia are $2. Tip Michael Cheika has an intimate knowledge of Irish rugby from his time as Leinster coach, but that intellectual property was stockpiled long before the arrival of Joe Schmidt. Ireland will take a second southern scalp in the autumn with a three-point win. © ESPN Sports Media Ltd
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