Three Points
Rebels learning harsh reality of what it takes to contend
Brett McKay
May 27, 2015
Stormers 31-15 Rebels (Australia only)

Super Rugby Round 15 saw yet more movement on the Super Rugby table, with the Australian and South African conference leads changing hands yet again and the Hurricanes' grip on top spot only getting that much firmer again.

And after making the reference to the Chiefs needing open trials to fill spots last week, it was hard to feel anything but sympathy for Dave Rennie and his team as yet more injuries struck. I genuinely can't recall them running out the same XV in consecutive weeks this season. Yet they remain entrenched in a wildcard spot, and no-one would dare underestimate them after all they've achieved in 2015.

Here were a few other things to stand out in Round 15.

And then there were eight. Or maybe still nine...

Surely at some point as the season only got closer to its finale, the number of teams in contention would start dropping off. By the halfway point, what felt like eight or nine teams in genuine contention blew back out to ten or more, with the resurgence of the Lions and the Rebels.

But losses in Round 15 for the Crusaders and the Rebels mean that neither team can get to that magical 10-win mark I've been banging on about for some time, and thus their finals qualification chances are officially dashed.

We're back down to a race in eight: the current top six, plus the Bulls and the Lions just outside the top group.

Or are we?

The Rebels are definitely gone. With only six wins under their belt, and tough games to come against the Sharks in Durban, and the Bulls and Force in Melbourne following, it's certainly no guarantee that they can get to even nine wins.

On top of that, they have a worse for-and-against record than all the teams above them, meaning that even if they can pull level on competition points, they'll quickly lose out on countback.

The Rebels have played some wonderful rugby in 2015, and are clearly developing something special under coach Tony McGahan, but in these last two weeks, they've learned the harsh reality of what's required to make the jump from mid-table team to genuine top-six contenders. One major plus for 2016, however, is that the bulk of their side will remain, and they've recruited some very handy players in addition.

The Rebels were outclassed by the Stormers in Cape Town at the weekend © Getty Images
Enlarge

The Crusaders also can't get to 10 wins. I should be putting the line through them right now. But the red pen remains capped and holstered, and here's why.

Should the last wildcard spot fall to a team with only nine wins, the Crusaders' record actually puts them in the box seat. Their for-and-against differential and the number of tries they've scored is better than four of the current top six teams.

Of the teams they'd likely be competing with - the Brumbies, Bulls, and Lions - only the Brumbies have a slightly better for-and-against, but the Crusaders have scored 10 more tries.

For info, the SANZAR tie-breaking system looks at number of wins first, then for-and-against, then the number of tries scored.

Of course this will all become moot should the Crusaders lose to the Hurricanes in Nelson on Friday night. That would leave them only capable of winning eight games, and that definitely won't be enough to qualify.

In all honesty, I think the loss to the Waratahs was it for the Crusaders at any rate. And even putting mathematical miracles aside, they're just not playing well enough at this time of year to threaten anyway.

Highlanders get the perfect finals audition

At the risk of saying, 'I told you so', the Highlanders might come away from their 23-3 win over Western Force in Perth content that they're in a really good place ahead of the finals.

In outlining the nuisance value motivations of the teams now well out of contention, I did indeed happen to say, "If the Highlanders can break through the hard-tackling Force, they'll fancy their chances against most other teams as well."

What I was most impressed with about the Highlanders' win was their patience. It certainly wasn't for the lack of trying that they couldn't breach the Force in the first half, and when they did finally cross for their first try, it came on the back of a maul.

The Highlanders had to show patience against a dogged Force side © Getty Images
Enlarge

It took until the 74th minute until their famed midfield-bomb-and-win-the-contest produced a result, with Marty Banks creating the chance for Richard Buckman to get away, and with Aaron Smith finishing it all off.

23-3 looks like a comprehensive thumping, but the Highlanders really had to work for this win.

Patience will be a virtue this weekend down in the deep south, too, as they host the injury-ravaged Chiefs in Invercargill. In what shapes as a massive game for both sides with near identical records, the Highlanders will overtake the Chiefs with a win at Rugby Park.

And as the New Zealand teams line up to take points off each other over the remaining three rounds, and slight advantage gained will be worth more than just the competition points themselves.

Waratahs continue to get it done

A quick hat-tip to the Tahs and Michael Cheika to finish this week. Though he said at the start of the season that the Waratahs of 2015 would continue to play 'their way' and stay true to their rugby identity, it's clear that Cheika and his side have been forced into more pragmatic methods in this back half of the season.

On Saturday night against the Crusaders, their defensive pressure and intensity was what created the mistakes on which they swooped, rather than any mind-blowing attacking phases.

And as we've said of late on the Scrum5 podcast, and again this week, the fact the Waratahs continue to win without really putting together 80-minute performances is nothing to be sneezed at. The good teams - the champion teams, in fact - know how to win when things aren't going their way, and that might be the hallmark of the Waratahs in 2015 if they're able to go back-to-back.

© ESPN Sports Media Ltd

Live Sports

Communication error please reload the page.