• The Betting Bunker

McDowell tempts but Poults has the power

Josh Williams December 9, 2010
Graeme McDowell and Ian Poulter both starred at the Ryder Cup © PA Photos
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Click here to bet on the Shark Shootout at bet365

Having been embroiled in a draining play-off battle with Tiger Woods at the Chevron World Challenge, Graeme McDowell could be forgiven for taking a lengthy break. But that hasn't been his style in 2010, and instead he finds himself competing in a seventh tournament in as many weeks - the Shark Shootout at the Ritz-Carlton Resort in Naples, which starts on Friday.

McDowell soared to No. 7 in the world rankings after clawing back the four-shot lead that Woods held at the beginning of the final day, sealing the triumph with back-to-back 20-foot putts that cemented his reputation as the pre-eminent finisher on the circuit.

Williams' wager

  • Ian Poulter and Dustin Johnson to win the Shark Shootout - 7/2 at bet365

Before that success, the US Open winner had continued a glorious year by scything into Martin Kaymer's lead at the top of the Race to Dubai standings. Although he was unable to edge ahead of the German, he can look back on a run that has seen him finish in the top five at four of his last six tournaments - a sequence that has included two wins.

It's some surprise, then, to see him as far out as 15/2 at the Shark Shootout, but then this is a 12-team tournament with an unusual format.

Beware the pairings

McDowell finds himself paired with countryman Darren Clarke, who was one of Europe's vice-captains during the successful Ryder Cup campaign. The first round will be played with alternate shot rules, then it's better ball, before finishing with scramble play. We'll guess you're familiar with the first two - scramble play involves both players teeing off and both playing a shot from where the best one ended up, and so on.

Our fear for the Ulstermen, based on the format, is that neither drives the ball far enough for them to form a formidable duo. Yes, McDowell was one of Europe's stars in the doubles at Celtic Manor, but this course is far more forgiving to those who simply aim to send the ball as far as possible from the tee.

Although the Ritz-Carlton Resort isn't a pushover - the steep-faced bunkers are daunting - there is no rough to become trapped in, so you can conjure a seriously low score. Last year, and bear in mind that it's a three-round event, Jerry Kelly and Steve Stricker finished at 26-under, while Chad Campbell and Tim Clark conjured a 15-under final round.

The complementary duo

As ever in team golf, what you're looking for is a complementary blend of players, and we think Ian Poulter and Dustin Johnson (7/2) will provide that. The Englishman isn't renowned for his excellence with the driver but, considering Johnson can thump the ball many a mile, he can focus on his main strengths, scrambling and putting.

What's more, Poulter finds himself in the midst of a glorious run - never lower than sixth in each of his last four starts - that has seen him recapture the excellence on the greens that marked him out as a potential major winner in the early part of 2010. And all this without mentioning his laudable record in team golf - think back to the Ryder Cup, where he spearheaded Europe's charge with a three-point haul from four matches.

As for Johnson, the course is perfectly suited to his gameplan of unbridled aggression. The American, who so nearly claimed two majors over the past 12 months, averages a daunting 309 yards from the tee this season. His putting is better than most give him credit for - generally less than 30 per round in 2010 - and he is well rested, having taken a break before returning at the Chevron World Challenge. The circumstances are right for Poulter and Johnson, so don't hesitate to back them in the win only market.

Please note that odds are correct at time of publication and are subject to change.

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Josh Williams is an assistant editor of ESPN.co.uk