• World Cup, 2011

Sachin or Murali to come out on top?

Simon Cambers April 1, 2011

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No side has ever won the World Cup on home soil and so India can create history if they beat Sri Lanka in the final of the 2011 event on Saturday. The bookies make them favourites but Sri Lanka are a balanced and dangerous team and will be ready to take advantage should India not bring their absolute A-game.

Mumbai is the venue for the final and you could not find a more fanatical support than the one the two sides will encounter there. Around 99.99% of people will be yelling and screaming for an India win and that's probably why bet365 make them 4/7 favourites to win the match with Sri Lanka on offer at 6/4.

This match has a lovely sub-plot with a win for either side perfect for either Sachin Tendulkar or Muttiah Muralitharan. Murali retires after the game and is playing on one leg because of injury while Tendulkar is in top form and needs just one more century to score 100 international hundreds, an absolutely phenomenal achievement.

But neither man will care too much about personal milestones as long as their team wins and this match promises to be a cliff-hanger. India have the batting strength, right down to Harbhajan at No 8 or No 9, while Sri Lanka have the most varied bowling attack in the competition.

Their batting is not as strong, but their top four are all world class so if they perform, India, whose bowling has not been as effective as it might, will be in for a real dog-fight. This could go all the way to the wire and in the end, as so often at this stage, it will be simply about who performs on the day and who lets the pressure get to them.

The toss will be important as it's a day-nighter and both teams would bat first given half a chance. India have won only eight of their 14 one-dayers in Mumbai but home advantage is always key, so long as they can cope with expectations.

Big guns to rise to occasion?

Finals bring out the best in big players and sometimes they bring out the best in some of the fringe players who can make a name for themselves for the rest of their career by one dashing innings or a flurry of wickets.

Needless to say, bet365 make Tendulkar favourite at 13/5 to be his side's leading runscorer. The little master had almost as many lives as a cat against Pakistan in the semis but he may only need one to have a massive influence on the match.

Virender Sehwag is next at 7/2 but I have my doubts if he can stay around long enough to end up on top, while Gautam Gambhir, who should excel against Sri Lanka's spin attack, is 4/1 and Vinod Kohli a 5/1 chance. Yuvraj Singh is due a score after a golden duck against Pakistan and is 11/2 while captain MS Dhoni and Siresh Raina are both 10/1.

For Sri Lanka it's all about the top four and Kumar Sangakkara gets the nod as favourite at 3/1 with bet365, while the competition's leading runscorer, Tillekeratne Dilshan is 10/3 and Upul Tharanga is available at 7/2.

Mahela Jayawardene is a 5/1 bet and then it's 7/1 against Thilan Samaraweera and 9/1 that Chamara Silva ends up on top.

As I said, this match is basically a 50-50 call and I would not be at all surprised should Sri Lanka - our tip at the start of the competition, if you remember, win it, but there will not be much in the match and it could go right down to the last over.

Please note that odds are correct at time of publication and are subject to change.

Simon Cambers is ESPN.co.uk's betting correspondent

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