Manny Steward once told me the better boxer always wins the rematch and the great man has a point, but boxing rematches are most definitely not a science.
This Saturday it is rematch time at the MGM in Las Vegas when Floyd Mayweather will try and improve on his win over Marcos Maidana in May; in the first fight Floyd won eight or nine of the 12 rounds to move to 46 fights, most of them one-sided, without loss. He also made, when all the money was collected, about $72 million (£44.7m) for his 36 minutes of work.
Mayweather has promised a better finish, has promised that he will not get caught and trapped on the ropes. He has promised a knockout: "Absolutely, we're going for the knockout." Nice, but he has only stopped one fighter in seven years and that was from a sucker punch, which was legal but morally dubious.

Buncey's Vaults

- The headline said it all: 'Steward's Kronk comes to London.' Manny Steward was at the opening of the gym in Kentish Town inside the St.Pancras amateur boxing club. Tommy Hearns and Marvin Hagler also flew in. '"I started at the Kronk in 1969," Steward said. "I get the same feeling here as I had then."' The plan was for the famous old London amateur club would be known as Kronk-St.Pancras.
- Steward talked boldly about feeling "something special" and local boxers raved about the new bags, Hearns and Steward. '"The Kronk way is the hard way but it is my way and it makes champions."' There were plans, so I wrote, for exchanges between boxers, the 'first of many exchanges could happen by the end of the year.' It never did, the odd adventure never lasted and there was much acrimony before the Kronk name was dropped and Steward's involvement ended.
- As reported in The Independent, February 7, 2001.

Maidana, meanwhile, is convinced that this time he will not let Mayweather get away. In the first fight Maidana had his success when he ran at Mayweather, hitting out like the victorious Roberto Duran did in his first brilliant fight with Sugar Ray Leonard - in the rematch an over-confident Duran quit when he struggled to land a punch cleanly on Leonard's chin.
The first fight between Mayweather and Maidana lacked the drama and controversy of the Leonard v Duran epic, and the outcome was certainly not controversial. I do, however, agree with much of what Maidana has said since that night in the MGM ring; he got to Mayweather, he found the style to disrupt Mayweather's strategy and there is every chance that on Saturday he will be the improved fighter. He will certainly be the younger and the hungrier.
This rematch works because of the tiny signs of decay in Mayweather's speed and mobility. He is 37, he has been in a boxing gym getting ready for competitive fights since he was 11 and his body, as he has readily admitted, is starting to slow down. He is not quite the old man of the ring, but there are signs.
Mayweather is an inspirational professional, a man quick inside the ropes on championship nights to make small adjustments and he is equally alert to any signs of slowing down and getting old. It is surely no coincidence that the sport's highest-profile and most controversial strength and conditioning coach Alex Ariza has been helping Mayweather stretch after training. Mayweather, it has to be said, has been quick to insist that Ariza is not getting paid, but he has also been vague about just what role, if any, Ariza will play on the night.
On Saturday night Mayweather will likely move less and instead concentrate on powerful counters and his trademark illegal elbow and forearm slashes that are, apparently, invisible to every single referee that has ever worked on any of his fights. Maidana will return the illegal arm far quicker this time and an ugly maul is guaranteed - I just wish it was a peak Ricky Hatton getting the chance on Saturday because the Hatton of 2007, when he shared a ring with Mayweather, was a great fighter; sadly for Hatton fans, so was little Floyd!
Mayweather will win but I would be stunned if it is any easier. As Manny said, the best man wins the rematch but he meant the best man at the peak of his powers. Manny had that happen with Wladimir Klitschko against Lamon Brewster. In the first fight, which was also the first time they worked together, Wlad was done in five rounds and his career was in crisis. They continued to work and develop together and three years later the rematch was on: Wlad crushed Brewster in six painful rounds. This Saturday Manny's Rematch Rule will be tested. Enjoy it.

© ESPN Sports Media Ltd

