Australia v New Zealand
All Blacks to wrap up trophy double
Sam Bruce
August 7, 2015
Rugby Championship Preview: Australia v New Zealand

It's been a big year for trans-Tasman battles with the Aussies downing the Black Caps in the Cricket World Cup final and Kiwis overpowering the Kangaroos in a one-off rugby league Test; but after a couple of tasty entrees, the main course is finally here. There's also the dessert in the Netball World Cup on Sunday.

Saturday's opening Bledisloe Cup clash will also decide the winner of this year's Rugby Championship with a projected crowd of around 75,000 expected to make their way to ANZ Stadium. As well as the silverware on offer, fans of both sides have also had a number of juicy storylines to engage them in the build-up: Michael Cheika's first Bledisloe Test as coach and Richie McCaw's Australian farewell being two of the biggest.

Team News

  • Australia: It's been the subject of bar-side discussion for months and Cheika has finally decided to trial a Michael Hooper-David Pocock combo. The duo combine in a back-row alongside Scott Fardy while Dean Mumm and James Horwill have been paired together in a veteran lock combination. Scott Sio has earned a start at loose-head prop while Toulon's Matt Giteau and Drew Mitchell start at inside-centre and left wing, respectively.
  • New Zealand: The breakout player in Super Rugby, Nehe Milner-Skudder has been granted the chance to test his electric speed and fancy footwork in a Bledisloe Cup baptism of fire. The Hurricanes winger is part of a new-look All Blacks back three that sees Ben Smith shift to full-back and Julian Savea come in on the wing. Closer in, Dan Carter and Sonny Bill Williams return to start at first and second five-eighth, respectively, while Jerome Kaino comes back in at blindside breakaway. Sam Cane has also been added to the bench as the All Blacks prepare for a David Pocock-Michael Hooper double-show.

Yet the Rugby World Cup, of course, remains the bigger picture with both sides desperate to maintain the momentum secured with wins over Argentina and South Africa. Those victories have been quite similar yet few can argue the All Blacks seem to be travelling a little better. They're by no means the finished product, however, while injuries have afforded Steve Hansen the opportunity to inspect a few fringe players before he's forced to cull his squad back to 31.

Cheika must do the same in the coming weeks though it's fair to say his squad is a little closer to being settled, save for some decisions around the inside backs and second-row. They may well be a little clearer after Saturday.

In form

He's been one half of arguably the biggest selection debate to ever engulf Australian rugby but David Pocock has just gone about his business in exemplary fashion all year. There's just one difference this week: he'll have No.8 on his back. Cheika's decision to play both Pocock and Hooper alongside each other has set up an intriguing breakdown battle with the All Blacks. The common belief seems to be that Pocock will take on most of the work at the tackle, leaving Hooper to play a little wider as is his custom. Pocock was spectacularly good against the Pumas, and an unfamiliar number on his back is unlikely to change that.

'Great players always play good'
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It's hard to remember Ben Smith ever playing a bad game, so to say he's "in-form" doesn't perhaps carry the impetus it might for others; we've come to expect attacking brilliance every time he's on the team-sheet, and he rarely disappoints. Things are a little different this week, however, with Smith getting the chance to start a Test at full-back. So often over the last few years, Smith has been shafted to the right wing to accommodate Israel Dagg. The Crusaders custodian has been left out of the squad this week so Smith moves to the back and Nehe Milner-Skudder comes onto the wing. It's a frightening back three that also features Julian Savea; Dagg could be the most nervous spectator of all.

Out of form

Bernard Foley has seemingly moved clear of Quade Cooper in the race for the Wallabies' No.10 jersey; though he's under increasing pressure in front of the sticks. The Waratahs fly-half enjoyed a solid hit-out with ball in hand in Mendoza but looked anything but comfortable from the kicking tee. The Wallabies can't afford to have a goal-kicker down on confidence at the World Cup; his five-from-nine return against the Pumas didn't affect the result, but the way in which he was striking the ball was anything but convincing. He needs to deliver against the All Blacks.

Julian Savea has scored 30 tries in 33 Tests, and nine from 15 in the Rugby Championship, so it borders on the ridiculous to identify him as the weak link in the All Blacks' backline. But he's likely to attract the gaze of the All Blacks coaching staff this week after he was omitted from the Tests against the Pumas and Springboks because of a lack of conditioning. Some brutal sessions have since come and passed for Savea, but still he'll want to do plenty of work off the ball - as well as his usual powerhouse runs - if he's to convince the coaching staff he's back in tip-top shape.

Cheika unfazed by All Blacks' depth
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Key battle

The breakdown. There's nothing new there, as it's vital in any game, but the Springboks dominated the All Blacks at the breakdown in Johannesburg, where they overpowered and out-muscled the New Zealanders, and it's been a subject of much debate and practice in training this week. Heinrich Brussow featured strongly for South Africa as a fetcher, and the Wallabies' selection of peerless David Pocock and Michael Hooper in the Australian back-row promises to provide a similar level of pressure on the Men in Black.

Key stats

  • The Wallabies last defeated the All Blacks in their final Tri Nations clash of 2011. They have since lost eight matches and drawn two against their bitter trans-Tasman rivals
  • Richie McCaw has scored a try in each of his appearances in this year's Rugby Championship to tally 17 in the tournament; he now sits behind only Bryan Habana (18) in the list of all-time try-scorers in this tournament (including Tri Nations). McCaw is the only player in history to hit double figures (11) for tries against Australia.
  • Dan Carter, rugby's leading international points-scorer, is nine away from 1500 at Test level.

Odds

Australia are $2.85 and New Zealand $1.43

Tip

The Wallabies have shown signs they're headed in the right direction under Cheika, but the 25-point win over the Pumas was perhaps made to look a little better than it actually was. Questions remain over their scrum while Bernard Foley's goal-kicking is anything but assured. The All Blacks are by no means the finished product, however and Hansen will be looking for a far more complete performance than that served up in Johannesburg a fortnight ago. He should get it in a five-point win.

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