Six Nations
Six Nations preview: Wales vs. France - heavyweight collide in Cardiff
Martyn Thomas
February 25, 2016
Wales have arguably been the form side so far but could be knocked from contention if they stutter against France © Getty Images
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Wales vs. France

Friday, kick-off 20:05

Principality Stadium, Cardiff

It is too early to talk about Six Nations championship deciders, yet the hosts know they would be knocked out of contention with a defeat under the roof on Friday night. Wales have arguably been the form side so far, but their opening weekend draw against Ireland means they cannot afford any further slip-ups. France have beaten Italy and Ireland without truly convincing but find themselves right in the mix. With both sides still to face Eddie Jones' unbeaten England the result in Cardiff could prove pivotal, if not decisive.

Team news

Wales coach Warren Gatland has made three changes to his starting lineup, only one of which is enforced. Luke Charteris' injury means Bradley Davies will slot into the second-row, while there are recalls for experienced duo Dan Lydiate and Alex Cuthbert. Gatland's bench remains strong, and his ability to bring on the likes of Gethin Jenkins, Justin Tipuric and Rhys Priestland as French legs tire could prove key.

France coach Guy Noves has made five changes to Les Bleus' starting XV, with Djibril Camara -- called up alongside the ineligible David Smith last weekend -- set to make his interntional debut. Scrum-half Maxime Machenaud is the only other change to the back division, while Antoine Burban, Paul Jedrasiak and Rabah Slimani come into the forward pack. Prop Vincent Pelo could make his debut off the bench.

Wales: Liam Williams, Cuthbert, J Davies, Roberts, North, Biggar, G Davies; R Evans, Baldwin, Lee, B Davies, Jones, Lydiate, Warburton (c), Faletau.

Replacements: Owens, Jenkins, Francis, Ball, Tipuric, Lloyd Williams, Priestland, Anscombe

France: Medard, Vakatawa, Mermoz, Danty, Camara, Plisson, Machenaud; Poirot, Guirado (c), Slimani, Jedrasiak, Flanquart, Lauret, Burban, Chouly.

Replacements: Chat, Atonio, Pelo, Maestri, Goujon, Bezy, Trinh-Duc, Fickou.

Key head-to-head

Taulupe Faletau has been a colossal presence in the Wales back-row over the first two games, putting his body where it hurts and scoring a crucial try against Ireland. France No. 8 Damien Chouly is an experienced campaigner, and is his country's senior loose forward with Louis Picamoles unavailable. He will need to be at his best to help keep Faletau, and Wales, quiet for 80 minutes.

Key stats

*Five players [three from Wales and two from France] were involved in the first Six Nations Friday night match, which France won 21-16 in Paris almost exactly seven years ago.

*Wales are bidding to win their fifth straight Test against France. The French won the four before that, omen?

*The last French win in this fixture came in the 2011 Rugby World Cup semifinal [9-8].

*Form guide: Wales - WLLDW France - WLLWW 

Odds

Wales have been installed as heavy favourites by Unibet, who are offering the hosts at 3/10 to win on Friday. France, on the other hand, are available at 5/2 suggesting this could be a close game. Les Bleus haven't scored a try in their last two visits to Cardiff, and are 7/1 to put that right this week.

Fantasy players to watch

Jamie Roberts and Virimi Vakatawa. Roberts has been in scintillating form in the opening rounds and his all-action approach to the game invariably results in points. Vakatawa will be key to France's hopes of victory -- if anyone will end their wait for a try in Cardiff it will be him.

Prediction

Given what happened in Dublin, the pressure is on Wales but that is usually when Warren Gatland's side turn it on. France are bedding into life under Guy Noves positively but their trip to Cardiff should bring with it an early setback. Wales to win, but only just.

© ESPN Sports Media Ltd.

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