Super Rugby
Dunedin final has makings of playoffs classic
ESPN Staff
June 18, 2015
Super Rugby Preview: Qualifying Finals

The Highlanders will be glowing with confidence heading into a Super Rugby finals series opener with the Chiefs, having won both encounters between the sides so far this year.

A win in this game would equal their best ever run of four straight wins against their rivals from Waikato, having previously suffered a wretched record against them since 2001 (P17 W3 L14). Records can often mean little when it comes to finals; still, we've taken a look at the recent history between these two sides with the help of Opta Sports.

Rounds 4 & 16: head-to-head

The Chiefs dictated possession but were unable to put it to good use; the Highlanders proving to be far more of a threat with ball in hand, particularly during the Round 16 clash in Invercargill. The Highlanders beat more defenders and broke the line more often than the Waikato men, despite the lighter share of the pill.

The Highlanders ran riot over an under-strength Chiefs outfit in Round 16 © Getty Images
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The Chiefs' offload game was prevalent in both encounters, as was the Highlanders kicking game. One key for the Chiefs this weekend will be to show a far greater respect for the ball. If they can reduce their error rate - a major problem in both fixtures with the Highlanders this season - then they ought to go close in this one.

It certainly looks likely to be an entertaining encounter under the roof at Forsyth Barr Stadium in Dunedin, given the exciting array of attacking talent on display in both outfits.

The Chiefs: with and without SBW

The Chiefs have had arguably the toughest run with injury of any Super Rugby team this season; but the inclusion of a certain double-barrelled name may represent a trump card in this knockout clash.

Sonny-Bill Williams has appeared in half his side's matches so far this season with some mixed results; but the raw figures certainly suggest the Chiefs are a far more potent outfit when he lines up in midfield. Dave Rennie's side have dotted down for 26 tries when he has been involved (nine matches) and 18 when he has not (nine matches). His dynamic offloading ability pushes the Chiefs' average in this aspect up considerably and doesn't really impact their turnover rate, while their discipline and tackling across the board are marginally better.

 
Chiefs team averages
 With SBWWithout SBW
Points26.019.7
Tries2.92.0
Carries119.0104.9
Metres Gained499.2474.4
Clean Breaks10.610.0
Defenders Beaten20.919.1
Offloads20.214.0
Passes144.4130.0
Missed Tackles14.915.3
Tackle Success %88%87%
Penalties Conceded11.913.4

Averages and Opposition Averages

While the Chiefs have been 2015's perennial offenders when it comes to turnovers and penalties conceded, their opponents on Saturday have benefited from more turnovers from their opponents than any other side. The Highlanders need little invite when it comes to scoring points from turnover ball and should they be presented with as many opportunities as the Chiefs usually offer up, it will be hard to look past a home win this week.

The key for the Chiefs is firstly getting on top of their discipline; they must aim to match their season low figures of eight penalties and 11 turnovers per game. The second is working off the back of Sonny Bill's threat in midfield.

Should both sides come with the intent to play running rugby then this fixture has the potential to be one of the most thrilling encounters in Super Rugby playoff history.

© Opta Sports for ESPN Sports Media Ltd.

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