After another Super 12 weekend when the big surprises came in the least expected places, Johannesburg to be precise, we now know a little more about the eventual identity of this year's champions.

An Australian team will play off in the final with one from South Africa, the title decider being held in Canberra, Durban or Johannesburg. If the Reds are to be become champions , they will have to do so on the road, but need not be intimidated by the prospect. The Crusaders did precisely that in 1999. New Zealand's monopoly has been shattered, but there may be benefits in that if the preparation of the All Black side for this year's Tri Nations Series is aided by the period of respite about to be enjoyed by its top players.

The Brumbies again finish top after the round robin phase, their demolition of the Chiefs the performance of the weekend. John Mitchell's forwards were expected to give a much better account of themselves than the distant second they achieved, but let's not detract from the quality and application of the Australians. The New Zealanders could not compete with the pace, skill levels , athleticism and sheer footballing intelligence of Eddie Jones' side. It will take an exceptional performance to topple them now, but the Reds are probably not the opponents they would relish most. Led by John Eales, the Queenslanders' will not be daunted by the prospect of having to go to Canberra and will hardly be inconvenienced by the travel. The Brumbies will be favourites , but don't rule the Reds out.

Having appeared to have blown their chances of a home semi, the Sharks were rescued by the Bulls, unlikely winners over the Cats. There was some justice in this. Early in the season , in Australia and New Zealand, the Bulls had played better than their record reveals , the elusive victory that would have given them the necessary self-belief to progress snatched from their grasp on at least two occasions. Does this tell us that the Cats are vulnerable, despite the physical presence of their forwards ? Possibly, but we can now be assured of a Durban semi final which will match the ferocity of any test match. Harry Viljoen will now have to sit where All Black coaches have sat over the past five years and try to figure out whether his subsequent preparations are going to be helped or hindered by the battle in front of him.

Talking of test match ferocity , the Highlanders and Crusaders were content to knock lumps out of each other at Carisbrook on Saturday night as All Black incumbents and hopefuls squared up to each other. Judging by the intensity of most of his play, and the spite of some of it, Justin Marshall is clearly taking Byron Kelleher's half back challenge very seriously indeed. Wayne Smith will be relieved that the next competitive rugby for his players does not come for another month when Manu Samoa, Argentina and France are the visitors.

The Blues at last showed that they did have a game plan , one suited to the demands of water polo. In atrocious conditions they adapted better than a Hurricanes side clearly still rattled by their defeat of the previous week to the Chiefs. Ron Cribb scored a fine try just before the break which sent his side on its way but was I the only spectator worried that he might have drowned in the act of scoring ? For all of their mid-season razzle-dazzle, the Hurricanes still only finished ninth, a disappointing return from a side with so much talent. They are clearly a difficult side to coach. As for the Blues, both on and off the field they will look very different in 2002.

The Reds have steadily built their momentum since returning from South Africa mid-season. After seven rounds they were in eleventh place , but had quietly accumulated 8 bonus points , even in defeat. Of course this is the equivalent of two wins and was crucial in the final run-in, the Chiefs , for example, only managing to pick up 4 bonus points in all. I did not think they were in serious danger of losing to the Waratahs , even when Matt Burke's side reduced the arrears to five points in the second half and had appeared to have built up a menacing head of steam. The Queenslanders always seemed stronger, their defence was outstanding and surely the debate about who fills the Wallaby no 15 shirt has been decided in Chris Latham's favour.

So Super 12 watchers in New Zealand are going to experience an unfamiliar detachment during the next two weekends as the 2001 tournament moves towards its climax. No doubt the air waves and press are going to be filled with the dire warnings of the doom mongers who see the imminent collapse of New Zealand rugby just around the next corner. But the simple truth is that Super 12 success or failure is irrelevant when used as a yardstick for measuring the likelihood of test match success or failure. The Wallabies became World Champions in 1999 , the year of the Crusaders' second Super 12 triumph. Find me a New Zealander who would not happily have sacrificed Super 12 success in the pursuit of World Cup
glory.