The build-up to the start of the test match season in New Zealand has been dominated as much by consideration of who does not play in the opener against Manu Samoa as who does.

Jonah is 'rested' , Marshall and Mehrtens start from the bench, Cooksley's shoulder injury sustained in a training ground accident could , frustratingly, put him out until the Tri Nations gets under way.

However you look at it, this is a crucial few months in the coaching career of Wayne Smith. A Tri Nations 50% success rate will not be tolerated for a second year and as he comes to the end of his two -year contract the shadow of John Mitchell looms. There are even whispers in Auckland this week that Mitchell has been given the job of video analyst in Smith's support team.

I believe there are solid grounds for New Zealand optimism. Super 12 failure brought the benefits of a decent break for players bleating about burn-out and staleness. Jeff Wilson has been reported as jumping out of his skin in training , Tana Umaga gave clear signs of rekindled enthusiasm when I spoke to him earlier in the week and the Maori effort against the Wallabies, even in defeat, suggested that the likes of Norm Maxwell and Troy Flavell are peaking at just the right time. However, I still don't understand the reluctance to play Flavell on the blindside, for the Maori he looked totally at his ease and was in damaging form.

The three June tests will also put the coaching of Smith's assistant, forwards coach Tony Gilbert , under the microscope. The Maori eight, in some small measure aided by the Thorburn Law which seeks to re-introduce the maul as an attacking phase, at times played like All Black packs of the past and all of New Zealand will expect more of the same as the season unfolds. Expect to see new skipper Anton Oliver leading from the front as he sets out to establish himself as a long-term solution to the captaincy issue and expect too big efforts from new cap, and 999th All Black , Marty Holah and Ron Cribb. The latter can consider himself fortunate to have retained Smith's confidence and anything short of a stand-out performance at his home stadium will add to the doubts that surround his ability to perform all the duties of an international no8.

Even without Cullen and Lomu, injured and rested respectively, the back line has a menacing look to it. Wilson and Howlett on the wings are fliers, Umaga and Alatini in the midfield offer power, pace and guile and Byron Kelleher deserves his start at scrum half. Fly half Tony Brown, noted for his muscular style of play , will need to concentrate on ensuring that he chooses the options to make the most of those outside him. It will also be a big night for Leon MacDonald, starting in place of Christian Cullen, but he has the ability to make his mark and establish himself as a worthy replacement should Cullen's rehab prove difficult.

This is only the fourth test match between the two countries, and the Samoans will be hoping for a considerably better result than the one when they last met, at the same venue, two years ago, a 71-13 victory for the All Blacks. Assistant coach Michael Jones has been busy this week describing the difficulties and challenges involved in bringing his players together from all corners of the earth and moulding them into a team. But they have had the benefit of two hard fixtures in the islands, and two good victories over Tonga and Fiji, and in the likes of Tuilagi, Paramore, Leota and Lafaiali they have battle- hardened veterans of quality.Neither will they be short of support in the city with the world's largest concentration of Polynesian peoples.But as the Tongans discovered in the corresponding fixture last year all the pre-match huff and puff and emotional call to arms counted for nothing when the action against a vastly more professional and better prepared outfit started. I don't anticipate a rout on this occasion, but once the All Blacks have absorbed the initial surge of Samoan adrenalin and commitment I would expect their superior class to exert itself.I would be surprised if they don't win by 50 points.