The return to domestic New Zealand rugby of Laurie Mains, the arrival in Auckland of veteran French prop Christian Califano, the expansion of the First Division to eleven teams and automatic relegation : These are just a few of the issues which confront rugby followers in New Zealand as the start of another NPC season rapidly approaches.

Kiwis like to believe that their domestic provincial competition is the toughest in the world, but in the professional era it is coming under increasing pressure. Moves towards a global season to accommodate an expanded Super 12 and a synchronized northern and southern season have put the squeeze on the fixture planners. All Black squad members are unlikely to be available until rounds five or six, depriving the public of seeing their top stars in action. On the other hand, smaller unions such as Northland and newly-promoted Bay of Plenty may feel that this evens things up at a time when much of the small -town talent is being enticed away by the lure of the bigger dollars on offer in the main Super 12 centres of Auckland, Wellington, Canterbury and Dunedin.

Northland offer an interesting case study. Good players like Robbie Johnson and Norm Berryman have been lured overseas, to Japan and France respectively, Justin Collins and Samiu Vahafolau tempted by the prospect of success with Auckland. Consequently, they have had to import from Canada, Fiji, Auckland and North Harbour themselves. The end result is that they may be able to offer a mid table competitiveness, but developing grass roots, local rugby is an impossibility in such circumstances.

Wellington are the defending champions after a stunning end to the 2000 season saw them defeat Auckland in the Eden Park semi final and Canterbury in a memorable final in Christchurch. Although they have the talent, I won't be rushing out to back the Lions to complete the double. Their form can be astonishingly flaky, their inability to achieve prolonged consistency ulcer-making for coaches Rennie and Mourie.

Ranfurly Shield holders Canterbury, even without their All Black contingent, look strong and capable of going one better than last year. Coach Dave Rennie, having taken over from Crusaders' coach Robbie Deans, will be keen to do well before heading off to Wales to join Graham Henry. The burdens of Shield possession took their mental and physical toll of the Waikato side in recent seasons, are we likely to see the same drain on the Cantabrians? There will be early season opportunities for youngsters Ben Blair, Ben Hurst and Aaron Mauger to stake a claim before their All Black counterparts return, and this is surely the time for Brad Thorn to show that the transition from league to union is accomplishable.Assuming they have established a challenging position by round five or six, they could become an irresistible force.

Freed of those Ranfurly Shield burdens, and buoyed by some exciting Chiefs' Super 12 form, Waikato look play-off certainties. The backline is full of attacking menace : Randle, Reihana, Lowen, McLeod, Ranby, Hill and Duggan as good a unit as exists in the competition. Led again by the redoubtable Deon Muir, the pack will not be short of punch, with Willis, Cooksley, Gibbes, Manu and Holah sure to figure prominently.

The return of Laurie Mains to Dunedin means we will see a very different Otago side from the one which stumbled through last year's campaign, only really coming to life with a wonderful but failed Shield challenge in Christchurch. The critical stage of their season will be the opening rounds, if they can prove competitive before their large All Black contingent returns they will become serious title challengers, I suspect. Before they can mount that challenge, however, someone will have to step forward to provide the backline tactical direction. Mains has imported Marius Mostert from the Cats and Paul Martin from Waikato to cover the absence of Hoeft and Hayman, and will rely heavily on the leadership of Kelvin Middleton to keep the forward fires well stoked. These are also critical times for no8 Paul Miller who has become a forgotten man since his move from Southland promised so much.

1999 champions Auckland will be led this year by flanker Xavier Rush, prop Paul Thomson unable to convince coaches Pivac and Fox pre-season that he had done enough to claim an automatic starting place. The importing of Califano from Toulouse was contentious. If there really are no props in the Auckland metropolis worth promoting then New Zealand rugby is in serious trouble. The backline looks full of attacking possibilities - Muliaina, Vidiri, Valence, Tanivula and Ai'i are lethal with ball in hand- but as we saw in Super 12 they have defensive and tactical deficiencies. Much will depend on the ability of Carlos Spencer to bring control and consistency and that is by no means guaranteed.

North Harbour's coaching duo of Wayne Shelford and Allan Pollock have to deliver this season. Former All Blacks Glen Osborne, Frano Botica and Mark Mayerhofler have been brought back from France and together with the likes of Aisea Tuilevu, Karl te Nana , Rico Gear and Rua Tipoki will have to plenty to offer on attack. In the recent past, however, they have been vulnerable to the competition's best packs. Will 2001 be any different ? Even without Ron Cribb there is no shortage of back row talent, and the front row looks more solid since Tevita Taumoepeau was lured away from the Bay of Plenty. But Troy Flavell will be missed in the second row and they look to be vulnerable there. I don't see Harbour making a serious challenge.

Unfashionable Taranaki may be , but this has not prevented them making an impact in recent seasons : semi finalists last year as well as in 1998. They have a formidable pack of forwards, possibly the most fiercesome in the entire tournament, with only prop Gordon Slater on the fringes of the All Black squad. Brother Andy, Paul Tito, Keith Robinson , Campbell Feather, Brent Thompson all provide uncompromising back-up . Daryl Lilley and Mepi Faoagali are steadying, experienced presences amongst the backs and Urwin and Haami at half back will be combative and competitive. Taranaki 's whole invariably amounts to something considerably stronger than the individual parts, and 2001 seems unlikely to be any different.

The expansion of the division to 11 teams, and the accompanying regulations regarding relegation and promotion from the Second Division , have serious implications for the likes of Northland, Southland, Counties Manukau and Bay of Plenty. The team finishing 11th will be automatically relegated, the team finishing 10th will get home advantage in a play off with the Second Division champions. From 2002 onwards, the last team in a 10 team division will play off against the Second Division championships. This puts immediate pressure on the Bay of Plenty, depriving them of any opportunity to consolidate as they make their step up. Coach Gordon Tietjens is a canny operator , of course, but he may find his resources stretched, especially since losing Justin Wilson, Rico Gear and Craig de Goldi from last year's championship-winning side. Glen Jackson and Dallas Seymour, recruited from Waikato and Canterbury respectively, bring experience in crucial positions , but will that be enough?

Counties Manukau and Southland seem the most likely candidates to be scrapping it out with Tietjens' men. Counties have some useful loose forward resources , in the shape of Tukino and Makiri, and promising locks in Ormsby and Lindsay, but worrying lack of quality in the front row. Loki Crichton, Blair Feeney and skipper Danny Lee will shoulder the backline responsibilities but there is an alarming lack of depth in the event of the inevitable injuries in such a demanding campaign. Much the same is true of Southland, where coach Leicester Rutledge surprised many by his pre-season dropping of hooker and former skipper Davin Heaps. Samoan test player Earl Va'a has been recruited from English club football and looks set to play a crucial tactical role with his play making and goal kicking. Brendan Timmins, a former Otago second rower, will bring a craggy urgency to his role as skipper but looks short of quality lieutenants to aid him through what is sure to be a testing few months.

Prospects for Northland's coach Bryce Woodward look rosier now than they did ten days ago. The acquisition of halves James Arlidge and Ben Meyer from Auckland promises to plug some of the gaps and the former offers the prospect of a controlling influence in the no10 shirt. Hayden Taylor, Rupeni Caucau, Fred Asselin, Fero Lasagavibau and Jason Shoemark provide pace, experience and promise and the probability of home ground competitiveness. As ever, the forward effort will centre around durable skipper and former New Zealand A lock Glenn Taylor. Tim Knight and Vula Maimuri are others with Super 12 experience and there is no shortage of back row talent, even without the departed Collins and Vahafolau.

So come play off time who can we expect to be in the picture? I expect Waikato, Canterbury, Otago and Wellington to be the semi finalists, Counties Manukau to be relegated and Southland to be involved in a play off to retain their First Division status. And the champions? Canterbury.