2015 WSOP- How Joe McKeehen, Neil Blumenfield and Josh Beckley can win

November 10, 2015

After almost five months of anticipation, the World Series of Poker main event final table is down to its final three players. Tonight, they will return to the Penn and Teller theater inside the Rio All-Suite Hotel and Casino in Las Vegas at 6 p.m. PT. The trio will play until the next WSOP main event champion is crowned, earning $7,680,021 and the most coveted bracelet in poker.

ESPN will start its coverage at 6:30pm PST (9:30EST) due to its 30-minute delay.

Over the first two days of the final table, we've seen:

• Immediate fireworks, which included two quick eliminations (Patrick Chan and Tom Cannuli) to start each day,

• Bad beat knockouts (Pierre Neuville and Tom Cannuli),

• Agonizingly slow play (Ofer Zvi Stern…enough said), and

• Sharp-dressed men (Frederico Butteroni, Max Steinberg, and Neil Blumenfield).

 

As the final three competitors prepare for the biggest day of their poker career, here are my thoughts on what each player will need to do to become the next WSOP main event champion.

Joe McKeehen -- 128,825,000 chips (128 big blinds):
No one is surprised that McKeehen is in this position as chip leader. Almost every poker pundit made the obvious prediction that McKeehen would win, especially with his massive chip lead heading into the final table. However, it is the sheer dominance of the final table that has surprised some poker experts, including myself. Remember, even Jonathan Duhamel, who is the only November Nine chip leader in history to win, lost his chip lead during final table play and was even second in chips during three-handed play. We have not seen such complete domination at the final table since Jamie Gold in 2006.

McKeehen has been in complete control from the first hand, playing conservatively during the start when the pay jumps were minimal and shorter stacks may take some chances to chip up. Then, he began to turn up the heat at the end of Day 1 and much of Day 2, when the pay jumps increased and the reality began to sink in that they are stepping closer and closer to the bracelet. He has been solely responsible for four of the six eliminations, but he only cares about the final one to give him the victory.

Nevertheless, as we all know, things can change in a heartbeat in poker … just ask Joseph Cheong (2010) or Philip Hilm (2007).

As he enters Day 3, the 24-year-old is holding two-thirds of the chips and should continue playing in his comfort zone by putting relentless pressure on his opponents. The next pay jump is over $1 million, but would more importantly give his opponent the chance to get heads-up for the WSOP main event title. Before the cards are even dealt out, each pot will be worth 1.95 million in chips and he should make his opponents pay to take a flop. However, he should continue to play small ball to reduce the variance, especially with such a massive chip lead. There is no need to play sheriff and put his leadership position at risk unnecessarily. Remember, just one double up by Blumenfield through his stack and suddenly they would be almost even in chips.

Against the amateur Blumenfield, McKeehen should try to take flops, especially when he is in position on the button. By continuing to play small ball, he has the best opportunity to utilize his skill and experience, especially against the amateur. Against Beckley, McKeehen must continue to put pressure on him, as he is the short stack. However, as Beckley chip stack dwindles down, he must not double him up unnecessarily. Fortunately, he is in position of Beckley the majority of the time.

Neil Blumenfield -- 40,125,000 chips ( 40 big blinds):
While many expected McKeehan to be still playing for the bracelet, many were surprised by Blumenfield’s aggression throughout this final table, especially during Day 1. Admittedly, Blumenfield told me that the November Nine hiatus gave him an opportunity to improve his game and he looks to have taken full advantage of the time off. His aggressive style has won him poker fans across the world including Antonio Esfandiari, who has nicknamed him “The Legend” during the ESPN telecasts.

As the only amateur left at the final table, he must recognize that his strength is his unpredictability, which could lead to a go-for-broke style in the final three players. To become the first amateur since Jerry Yang in 2007 to win the WSOP main event, Blumenfield must continue playing aggressively in well-timed spots. He reraised 11 times during the first 143 hands, winning all but one. He needs to continue this strategy if he wants to be holding the diamond encrusted bracelet over his head at the end of the night.

Blumenfield understands that no matter how much coaching he has received, he is still less experienced that his two other professional competitors, especially in postflop play. Thus, he needs to force the pros into difficult decisions using his aggression. The two other players want to play a lower variance style and see flops. Blumenfield should take a higher variance strategy and put maximum pressure on his opponents. Finally, he needs to be wary as Beckley’s chip stack decreases, he would be more apt to shove all-in during a blind versus blind battle. Blumenfield can’t afford to take a significant hit to his chip stack, a la Stern on Day 2 versus Beckley.

Of course, if his aggression is ultimately called by one of his opponents, the cards will need to fall in his favor for him to become the oldest champion since Johnny Moss in 1974 at the young age of 67.

Blumenfield will hope that for one more night, his opponents will #FearTheFedora!

Josh Beckley -- 23,700,000 chips (23 big blinds):
Entering the final table seventh in chips, Beckley has been extremely patient, playing only 10 hands during Day 1 to basically maintain his chip stack. During Day 2, Beckley was dealt a fortunate rush of cards, including his pocket aces on his blind-versus-blind double up versus Ofer Zvi Stern, which eventually sent him into second chip position. Unfortunately, he lost a couple of big hands afterward, including correctly laying down pocket jacks preflop to McKeehen’s pocket queens. If he ends up winning this, that one hand will be recalled for years to come.

The 25-year-old only has 23 big blinds, but Beckley is a very experienced short stack player, as he fought short stacked for the final three days back in July to make the 2015 November Nine.

Unlike his previous competitors (Frederico Butteroni and Pierre Neuville) who folded down to five big blinds, Beckley must maintain his fold equity and try to three-bet his opponents or push all-in to pick up chips.

If he is fortunate to double up and rebuild a healthy chip stack, Beckley should maintain his discipline and pick his spots, since McKeehen will probably continue his constant aggression. If Beckley patiently waits for the right spot, he may be able to double up again and even become the chip leader. Trying to become overly aggressive after one double up would be a very risky decision.

If he were to get heads-up, Beckley is more than capable of holding his own with his fellow East Coaster McKeehan, as they have had numerous battles on the felt. If he were to go mano-a-mano with the San Francisco amateur, he should take a small ball approach to utilize his skill and try to outplay him postflop.

Good luck to the final three competitors and look forward to watching an exiting final night for the 2015 WSOP main event title.