A late Bernard Foley penalty handed the Waratahs a maiden Super Rugby title last season, and this weekend's grand final rematch with the Crusaders could go down to the final minutes once again.

Easily the biggest game in Round 15, the 2014 finalists will face off at ANZ Stadium - the venue that hosted a tournament-record crowd of almost 63,000 fans for what was an epic decider at the Olympic precinct. While a crowd of around half that would probably satisfy NSW officials this time around, both sides will be looking to match the intensity and physicality of that clash as they seek a return to the playoffs in 2015.

The Waratahs can probably afford a defeat; but with a tough two-week road-trip to come, as well as a final-round derby with fierce rivals Queensland Reds, the defending champions will be keen to make the most of the Brumbies' bye and open up a lead at the top of the Australian conference.

The Waratahs and Crusaders fought out a memorable final in 2014 © Getty Images

Enlarge

The situation is far more urgent for the Crusaders, who trail the third-placed Highlanders by eight points in the New Zealand conference. The seven-time champions turned in their best performance of the season in a 41-point demolition of the Reds a fortnight ago, and have since had the chance to rest some weary legs via the Round 14 bye.

So what can we expect from Saturday night's clash? First off, the fans who make their way to Homebush will probably be content with a game half as good as last year's decider, such was the gripping nature of the Waratahs' 33-32 win. It's a good thing, too, as both sides have failed to hit the same heights of 2014.

The dirty word, for coaches Michael Cheika and Todd Blackadder, is "turnovers". Incredibly, the Waratahs and Crusaders are the worst and second-worst teams for turnovers conceded this season. But the bad news doesn't stop there for the defending champions; they are also forcing the fewest turnovers of any side in the competition. That fact is particularly relevant this week because of the Crusaders' vulnerabilities on turnover ball. The Canterbury side has conceded a competition-high 12 tries from turnover ball in 2015, an area where their New Zealand rivals have flourished; as evidenced by the Hurricanes' scintillating, if narrow, win over the Crusaders a few weeks back.

In last year's final, the Waratahs flew out to an early 14-0 lead thanks to an Adam Ashley-Cooper try and three Bernard Foley penalties. But their chances of making a similarly dominant start this weekend appear slim with the Crusaders outscoring their opponents inside the first 20 minutes by more than double the points tallied by the Waratahs this season. The need for the home side to be on their toes from the outset is also highlighted by the Crusaders' efforts in the first 20 minutes after half-time, a period when there is an 80-point differential between the two combatants.

Scoring margin by quarter in 2015 (all numbers provided by Opta Stats) © Scrum.com

Enlarge

Kurtley Beale often spends some time defending at fullback, but he will likely see plenty of traffic go his way in midfield due to a worryingly low tackling percentage. The Waratahs inside centre is tackling at just a 62% success rate, a figure he will need to improve dramatically when he is tasked with shutting down the Crusaders' All Blacks midfield of Colin Slade and Dan Carter. The France-bound duo combined for five clean breaks and a whopping 11 defenders beaten in the Crusaders' 58-17 thumping of the Reds in Round 13. The Crusaders also boast the power game of Nemani Nadolo out wide, and the Waratahs need only watch the way in which he trampled over Lachie Turner for an insight into the attacking threat of the Fijian giant.

Away from these stats, and the Crusaders' dominant scrum, it's hard to get a read on the likely performances of both sides due to the fact they've shared one common trait in 2015: inconsistency. The Waratahs have managed two more wins than the Crusaders, and have managed to string three victories together on one occasion, their victory over the ladder-leading Hurricanes represents the only match that bears some resemblance to the nine wins they put together on their way to the 2014 title.

And while the Crusaders are coming off their best performance of the season a fortnight ago, there had been little to be excited about before that Reds rout. The seven-time champions have managed back-to-back wins just once this season.

Consistently inconsistent: a two-horse race has seldom been more difficult to pick.