Rugby World Cup
Rugby World Cup preview - Scotland vs. Japan
Michael Beattie
September 22, 2015
Scotland v Japan Preview

No doubt Scotland coach Vern Cotter expected South Africa to put Japan a physical encounter as his men sat out the opening round of Pool B fixtures; whether he factored in the impact a victory over the two-time champions might have on their opponents is anyone's guess. Japan, firmly installed as fan favourites after their Brighton heroics, have made six changes to their starting XV for the trip to Gloucester. Scotland arrive with four defeats in their last six Tests but determined to prove that the Six Nations whitewash betrayed the improvements made in all areas under Cotter. One thing is for sure: they will not be taking Japan lightly.

The sides' two most recent meetings tell a story of both nations' shifting fortunes in recent times. Scotland notched a century against Japan during the 2004 Autumn Internationals but the 2013 meeting was a far closer affair, with Japan frustrating the Scots for the first 40 minutes before the hosts ran away with the game after the interval for a 42-17 win. Eddie Jones' side certainly stayed the course against South Africa, and will be on the hunt for another Tier 1 scalp in Kingsholm, not to mention a third RWC win and another step towards their first World Cup quarter-final.

Japan's Ayumu Goromaru
Japan's Ayumu Goromaru© Charlie Crowhurst/Getty Images

Team news

Scotland's prospects have been boosted by the return of full-back Stuart Hogg, cleared to play after picking up an ankle injury against Italy in last month's warm-up game. Grant Gilchrist partners Jonny Gray behind the all-Edinburgh front row of Alasdair Dickinson, Ross Ford and Willem Nel, with Richie Gray kept out of the starting XV by his brother once again. Gloucester's Greig Laidlaw, who scored 15 points against Japan in that 2013 win, makes his World Cup debut as captain on home turf. Josh Strauss, who recently gained eligibility under the residency rules, will start on the bench as David Denton hangs on to the No. 8 shirt.

With just four days to recover from their encounter with South Africa, Japan coach Eddie Jones has made six changes ahead of the showdown with Scotland -- four among the forwards. Amanaki Mafi, who came off the bench and made a huge impact for the Brave Blossoms in Brighton, has earned himself a start at No. 8, while props Keita Inagaki and Hiroshi Yamashita come in and Hitoshi Ono makes way for Justin Ives in the second row. In the back line, Kenki Fukuora gets a start on the wing while Yu Tamura will partner Sa'u in the centres.

Scotland:

Hogg, Seymour, Bennett, Scott, Lamont, Russell, Laidlaw (captain); Dickinson, Ford, Nel, Gilchrist, J. Gray, Wilson, Hardie, Denton.

Replacements: Brown, Grant, Welsh, R. Gray, Strauss, Pyrgos, Horne, Maitland.

Japan:

Goromaru, Matsushima, Sa'u, Tamura, Fukuoka, Tatekawa, Tanaka; Inagaki, Horie, Yamashita, Thompson, Ives, Leitch (captain), Broadhurst, Mafi.

Replacements: Kizu, Mikami, Hatakeyama, Makabe, Ito, Tui, Hiwasa, Hesketh

Scotland's Stuart Hogg
Scotland's Stuart Hogg© Michael Steele/Getty Images

Key head-to-head

Battle of the full-backs. Ayumu Goromaru was the man of the match in Japan's famous win against South Africa, and his ability to galvanise the side through the phases is every bit as critical as his contribution with the boot. He's also no slouch, as evidenced by the way he took Japan's second try. It was a performance Hogg will hope to mirror at Kingsholm. Arguably Scotland's biggest back-line threat from open play, his range of kicking could prove crucial if Cotter's men find themselves under the pump as they shake off those opening-game nerves. Scotland will need to be far more clinical than South Africa, none more so than Hogg at 15 -- if they are, it could be another long day for Goromaru.

Key stats

* Scotland's biggest ever Test win came against Japan, that 100-8 drubbing in Perth, Scotland during the 2004 November Internationals. Chris Paterson's 40 points that day, including three tries, is also a Scottish record.

* Ayumu Goromaru needs 17 points to become Japan's all-time leading Rugby World Cup points scorer. He has averaged just over 15 points in his last five Test matches.

* Scotland have won all four Test encounters between the sides, running up an aggregate 220-45 scoreline since their first meeting at the 1991 World Cup. However, in 1989, Japan beat a Scotland representative XV in a non-Test match, 28-24 in Tokyo.

Odds

Unibet have Scotland as fair favourites, but Japan are not the 40/1 outsiders they were against the Springboks. The Boys in Blue are available at 1/7 while Jones' men are at 19/4 to pick up their second win of the tournament.

Weather

Cloudy but little chance of rain in Gloucester on Wednesday, so the forecasters say -- it should be a comfortable 17 degrees Celcius come kick-off.

Prediction

Nobody would expect complacency among the Scottish ranks, and they will have no doubt taken umbrage after events in Brighton on Saturday. Eddie Jones has masterminded something special in the Japan camp, but recovering from the physical and emotional toll of beating South Africa to face another tier-one nation is a tall order. Scotland won their opening World Cup games against Japan in 1991 and 2003 -- expect the same again, but Japan are far more likely to grab a bonus point in defeat than the Scots in victory. Scotland by six.

© Michael Beattie

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