Super Rugby
Super Rugby run home: who will make the finals?
Sam Bruce
May 28, 2015
Super Rugby Preview: Greg Growden and Sam Bruce look forward to Round 16

The Super Rugby regular season is set for a thrilling climax with all three of the conference titles still up for grabs, although the Hurricanes are just about home and hosed in New Zealand. The runaway competition leaders require just three more competition points to lock up the New Zealand standings and home-ground advantage through the finals as no team in either the Australian or South African conference can eclipse the Wellington-based side atop the log.

While the Hurricanes appear all but certain to enjoy the week off in the opening round of the play-offs, who joins them is far less clear cut. The fight for the three wildcard positions is set to go down to the final round, with derbies, particularly in New Zealand, likely to play a key role in the make-up of the final standings.

Here at ESPN, we've gazed into our crystal ball to assess all the finals contenders and deliver our fearless predictions. Who do you see making the play-offs? Leave a comment at the foot of the page to join the conversation.

Hurricanes (1st, 57 points)

Run home: Crusaders (A), Highlanders (H), Chiefs (A).

Predicted finish: 1st (66 points)

Only the mother of all chokes will deny the Hurricanes first place. The men from the Kiwi capital have been the standout side in the competition, and they deserve home-ground advantage for the play-offs; we believe they'll secure that with a win over the Crusaders in Nelson on Friday. The Hurricanes should be able to handle the in-form Highlanders at home but a final-round clash with the Chiefs looms as a danger game; a loss of momentum ahead of the finals could prove critical.

Ma'a Nonu and the Ma'a Nonu are set to claim the No.1 seeding © Getty Images
Enlarge

The Waratahs look to be timing their run to perfection © Getty Images
Enlarge

Waratahs (2nd, 41 points)

Run home: Lions (A), Cheetahs (A), Reds (H).

Predicted finish: 2nd (52 points)

Ruck'n Maul: He-Man and the Three Amigos
%]

The Waratahs' win over the Crusaders at the weekend has relieved the pressure of their South African tour, with one win from two now likely to be a satisfactory result. It's a good thing, too, as they'll be down to their third-string hooker following a suspension to Tolu Latu, while Will Skelton also felt the wrath of the SANZAR judiciary. The Cheetahs appear a far easier prospect the week after the Lions, and they should have little trouble accounting for Queensland Reds in the final round.

Stormers 3rd (38 points)

Run home: Cheetahs (H), Lions (H), Sharks (A)

Predicted finish: 3rd (48 points)

The Stormers have been flying under the radar a little of late, but they appear well placed to top the South African conference. They should have far too much class for the Cheetahs this weekend, while the home-ground advantage against fellow conference rivals, the Lions, should give them an edge in Round 16. Their road trip to Durban in the final week of the regular season will be difficult, however, though a potential second-place finish could be on the line when they take to the field to face the Sharks.

Damian de Allende has been a key performer for the Stormers © Getty Images
Enlarge

Augustine Pulu gave the Chiefs great direction against the Bulls © Getty Images
Enlarge

Chiefs 4th (44 points)

Run home: Highlanders (A), Reds (A), Hurricanes (H).

Predicted finish: 4th (54 points)

The Chiefs face a tough trip to Invercargill this weekend for a clash with the Highlanders, one made even tougher by their wretched run with injury up front. We have the Highlanders taking the points in a close one but expect the Chiefs to bounce back with big victory over the hapless Reds in Brisbane the following week. That sets up a mouth-watering final-round clash with the Hurricanes, one in which the two-time champions will be tough to topple at home in Hamilton.

Highlanders 5th (43 points)

Run home: Chiefs (H), Hurricanes (A), Blues (A)

Predicted finish: 5th (53 points)

The Highlaners' Ben Smith breaks a tackle, Crusaders v Highlanders, Super Rugby, AMI Stadium, Christchurch, April 11, 2015
The Highlanders have to cover the absence of Ben Smith from one game © Getty Images
Enlarge

Everybody's second team, the Highlanders look set to make the play-offs for a second straight year. Wins in Bloemfontein and Perth over the past couple of weeks have left them in good shape for what is a tough finish to the regular season: three straight New Zealand derbies. Coach Jamie Joseph must find a further rest week for All Blacks Ben Smith, Aaron Smith and Malakai Fekitoa, which will likely have a devastating effect on the Highlanders' performance if their efforts against the Brumbies in the absence of the Test trio are anything to go by.

Brumbies 6th (38 points)

Run home: Bulls (H), Force (A), Crusaders (H)

Predicted finish: 6th (46 points)

Coming off a bye at the weekend, the Brumbies will likely add to the Bulls' woes on tour in Canberra on Friday night. A trip across the Nullabor to face the Perth will present some challenges but with plenty to play for, and possibly a couple of key playing inclusions, you'd expect Stephen Larkham's side to come away from nib Stadium with the win. Their home clash with the Crusaders in the afternoon will be far more challenging, particularly with it likely to be Richie McCaw and Dan Carter's final run in a red-and-black jersey.

Christian Leali'ifano is one of the Brumbies' keys in the run home © Getty Images
Enlarge

The Lions and Warren Whiteley are likely to fall short © Getty Images
Enlarge

Lions 7th (36 points)

Run home: Waratahs (H), Stormers (A), Bye.

Predicted finish: 8th (41 points)

The Lions are enjoying their best Super Rugby season for many years but, unfortunately, it's not going to result in a return to the play-offs. The Johannesburg side have just two regular-season matches remaining; we've got them upsetting the Waratahs in Round 16, but a trip to Cape Town to visit the Stormers will prove too tough of an ask. Coach Johan Ackermann should be satisfied with a nine-win season, however.

Bulls 8th (35 points)

Run home: Brumbies (A), Rebels (A), Cheetahs (H).

Predicted finish: 7th (42 points)

The Bulls were very much in semi-final contention … and then they boarded a plane bound for New Zealand. Back-to-back losses to the Blues and Chiefs have put a real dent in their play-off hopes, as will a third straight defeat at the hands of the Brumbies in Canberra on Friday. They might be able to catch the Rebels off guard in Melbourne a week later, and should take care of the Cheetahs without too much trouble; that loss to the battling Blues is likely to prove a major regret.

The Bulls' hopes seemingly died in New Zealand © Getty Images
Enlarge

The Crusaders aren't quite dead yeat © Getty Images
Enlarge

Crusaders 9th (31 points)

Run home: Hurricanes (H), Blues (A), Brumbies (A)

Predicted finish: 9th (41 points)

The Crusaders remain a mathematical chance of making the play-offs but that isn't likely to extend beyond this Friday's clash with the Hurricanes in Nelson. The loss of All Blacks Kieran Read, Sam Whitelock and Colin Slade to concussion and injury will be too much to overcome against the high-flying Hurricanes, although Dan Carter has reverted to fly-half in a welcome sight for All Blacks selectors. It'd be nice to Carter and fellow veteran McCaw to bow out with a win, and that could come in the form of a spoiling victory over the Brumbies in the final round.

Rebels 10th (30 points)

Run home: Sharks (A), Bulls (H), Force (H).

Predicted finish: 10th (41 points)

The Rebels, too, remain an outside chance of a play-offs berth - their first - but they require a whole range of outcomes to fall their way, including three straight bonus-point wins on their behalf. A far more likely scenario looks to be another loss on the road in South Africa before closing wins over the Bulls and Force at home. The Rebels have made great strides under coach Tony McGahan this season, but an appearance in the post-season will have to wait at least one more year.

Sefanaia Naivalu has bee a star for the Rebels © Getty Images
Enlarge

© ESPN Sports Media Ltd

Live Sports

Communication error please reload the page.