Rugby World Cup
Preview: Australia vs. Wales -- Who will take top spot in Pool A?
Sam Bruce
October 9, 2015
Ruck 'n' Maul: Australia looking strong

Top spot in Pool A goes on offer on Saturday night as undefeated Australia and Wales face off to see who wins through to the easier side of the knock-out phase of Rugby World Cup 2015. The two sides recorded contrasting victories over hosts England, with the Wallabies leading from start to finish and the Welsh finishing over the top of their bitter local rivals. They both endured equally grinding wins over Fiji while making light work of minnows Uruguay. The Welsh have the advantage of a few extra days rest but must overcome a 10-match winless run against the Wallabies that stretches back to 2008 while Australia have been hit by the suspension to influential flanker and vice-captain Michael Hooper. It's a game that promises so much; the team who handles the pressure of the situation and adjusts to the breakdown interpretations of referee Craig Joubert will go a long way to securing passage through to the more serene side of the knock-out draw.

Team news

Australia

Wallabies coach Michael Cheika has made three changes to the side that knocked England out of the Cup with a 33-13 win at Twickenham. Hooper's suspension means there is a start for impressive youngster Sean McMahon while the experience of Dean Mumm has been preferred to the lineout prowess of Rob Simmons. Israel Folau was suffering an ankle injury earlier in the week but that was never going to eventuate for Rob Horne (shoulder); his place has been filled by Toulon's Drew Mitchell.

Israel Folau, Adam Ashley-Cooper, Tevita Kuridrani, Matt Giteau, Drew Mitchell, Bernard Foley, Will Genia; David Pocock, Sean McMahon, Scott Fardy, Dean Mumm, Kane Douglas, Sekope Kepu, Stephen Moore, Scott Sio.

Replacements: Tatafu Polota-Nau, James Slipper, Greg Holmes, Rob Simmons, Ben McCalman, Nick Phipps, Matt Toomua, Kurtley Beale.

Topping Pool A key to success
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Wales

Warren Gatland has endured a nightmare run with injury over the last six weeks so it must have come as great comfort when his entire 31-man squad was deemed fit for service this week. The coach has made six changes to the side that faced Fiji last week with George North's move to outside centre and the promotion of breakdown specialist Justin Tipuric to No.7 the biggest surprises. There is also a start for New Zealand-born full-back Gareth Anscombe and fit-again left winger Liam Williams. Paul James and Luke Charteris have come into at prop and lock, respectively.

Gareth Anscombe, Alex Cuthbert, George North, Jamie Roberts, Liam Williams, Dan Biggar, Gareth Davies; Talupe Faletau, Justin Tipuric, Sam Warburton, Alun Wyn Jones, Luke Charteris, Samson Lee, Scott Baldwin, Paul James.

Replacements: Ken Owens, Aaron Jarvis, Tomas Francis, Jake Ball, Ross Moriarty, Lloyd Williams, Rhys Priestland, James Hook.

Cheika: Wales win won't mean easy run
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Key head-to-head battle

Hooper v Warbuton would have been special but McMahon v Tipuric won't be bad either. While McMahon isn't as strong over the ball as Hooper, the rising back-rower carries with certainty and loves the contact. Tipuric, on the other hand, is a breakdown specialist and combined with skipper Warburton, offer a huge breakdown threat. That may force McMahon to play a little tighter than he's used to but he only needs to look towards No.8 David Pocock for guidance there, the Brumbies back-rower has been among the players of the tournament to date. Still, whoever is able to offer the greater breakdown assistance between Tipuric and McMahon will have a huge say in this one.

Key stats

* Australia have won the last 10 games and 13 of their last 14 Tests against Wales

* The last five Tests have been decided by five points or less

* Australia lead 4-1 in matches played at Rugby World Cups

Weather

A top of 15 will greet the players at Twickenham while there is small chance of some isolated showers early in the evening.

Odds

Australia have been installed as 9/25 favourites by Unibet with Wales are 43/20. The line has been set at 7.5 points.

Prediction

Australia have built an imposing record over Wales in recent times and while the Wallabies coaching staff have done their utmost to talk down that fact this week, it's hard to believe they won't take some confidence from that lengthy winning run. They have always been able to close their matches out with Wales and this Test at Twickenham will prove no different. Australia by five.

© Sam Bruce

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