The duck shooting season got under way in New Zealand on Saturday, but is it possible that the gun shots which awoke me from my Sunday morning slumber were discharged by the firing squad assembled to punish those responsible for the mess Auckland rugby has created for itself ?

What an irony that on the day the once mighty Blues produced what was probably the feeblest performance in the history of Super 12 , the coach who took them to three finals , Graham Henry, was at Eden Park to witness their humiliation. The Brumbies were impressively efficient as they set about their first half slaughter of Frank Oliver's woefully selected , coached and led side, but it is difficult to judge the quality of their performance against such abject opponents, for whom skipper Robin Brooke was again substituted after 47 minutes. But the Australians now find themselves in pole position , a win over the Chiefs next Friday setting up the prospect of the final again being played in Canberra.

One man who will not be facing the firing squad in the foreseeable future is John Mitchell. The Chiefs ' spectacular victory in Wellington was a triumph for the former Waikato skipper who shows an uncanny knack for pushing the right coaching buttons. The way in which he has prepared his forwards has reminded New Zealanders of the way in which All Black packs used to play , and should again play. If Deon Muir , Royce Willis and Marty Holah do not make into Wayne Smith's first squad of the season there will be widespread dismay and disbelief , and what to do about Mark Cooksley ? The veteran former All Black was thought to be well past it, but was so dominant again in the line out against the Hurricanes that it made a nonsense of the argument that there are no specialist locks in New Zealand capable of competing with the best. So what if he is 30, it's not that old !

Excited as they might be about the Chiefs' surge towards the top, New Zealanders had better prepare themselves for the possibility of seeing themselves unrepresented in the play offs. The Brumbies and the Sharks are safely into the semis , and the Cats would have to be beaten by the Bulls at home for there to be any possibility of them being overhauled. It is far more likely that Laurie Mains' side will move up into second next Friday, leaving the Sharks having to travel to Cape Town to beat the Stormers in the round robin phase's final game.

So most of the excitement next weekend will centre on the battle for the fourth qualifying place , and in particular the fixtures in Auckland, Canberra, Dunedin, Sydney and Cape Town. The Reds , Chiefs, Stormers , Highlanders, Hurricanes and Waratahs are all in serious contention and as I indicated last week points differential is going to be crucial. How the Stormers could yet regret their careless home defeat to the Blues and the Hurricanes their failure to secure one more point for the draw that was on offer when they lost to the Cats in Johannesburg.

There are so many permutations, but the Chiefs could make it all academic speculation if , in Canberra on Friday, they can secure the bonus point in defeating the Brumbies. Unlikely ? Probably. Possible ? Why not. They would then put the heat on the Reds to emulate their feat against at the Sydney Football Stadium where the Waratahs are unbeaten this season. Having established a 17 points lead in the opening quarter of their victory over the Highlanders in Brisbane, the Reds seemed about to be overtaken as the New Zealanders came back powerfully in the third quarter to close the gap to 3 points. With their forwards well on top and controlling the game , they couldn't get their noses in front to complete their first away win of the season. But the Reds seem vulnerable and still some way short of being a complete team. The Chiefs have a marginally superior points differential and a forward pack who will set out to take the Brumbies on up front. They also have a potent backline who thrived on the sort of possession Deon Muir's eight were providing to out -Hurricane the Hurricanes.

The Stormers, Highlanders and Hurricanes are all three points further behind the Chiefs and Reds. Defeat for either the Reds or Chiefs does not offer encouragement unless any of that group of three can win , and vastly improve their points differential. At the moment the Stormers have a slight advantage, -3, to the Hurricanes' -6 and the Highlanders' -16. Another possibility is that a draw or narrow defeat , by less than seven points whilst scoring four tries, could be enough for either the Reds or Chiefs to squeeze through. Both the Stormers and Highlanders will be involved in local derbies, against the Sharks and Crusaders respectively, which by their very nature increase the potential drama and the actual tension of the occasion. The heat will be on both the South African sides, the Stormers still in contention after a season of inconsistency and missed opportunities, the Sharks facing the prospect of losing a home semi which seemed a certainty after the successful start to their Australasian tour, but then thrown into doubt after the carelessness of the way they allowed the Reds to come back at them in Brisbane.

The Highlanders have been superb at home , but the Crusaders will not be in any mood to grant them any favours at Carisbrook , particularly as defeat will condemn them to finish in 10th place. They played with spirit and skill against the Waratahs , but as we have seen throughout the season they have lost that edge which made them so formidable and few, if any , of their players have stood out as New Zealand's best Super 12 players in 2001. The Hurricanes will be fancied to score the maximum five points at Eden Park against the Blues , if they can recover mentally, as well as physically, from the hammering dished out to them by the Chiefs. With 30 points they would still be in with a chance, but like the others reliant on the results elsewhere. Even the Waratahs, currently in 8th place on 24 points , could score a five points maximum and make it to the semi finals , but for that to happen each of the Reds , Chiefs, Stormers, Highlanders and Hurricanes need to lose.

In fact , as we look ahead to round twelve the only certainty is that the Blues will finish 11th and the Bulls 12 th. Anything else is possible , and given the unpredictable nature of the tournament so far it would be rash to predict anything with any certainty.