New Zealand to win...or maybe not
Hugh Godwin
September 27, 2007

Of course we know who is going to win this World Cup, it's New Zealand at a canter - or is it? Hugh Godwin takes a semi-serious look at their possible downfall.

1 - Hot couture.
No rugby kit in the world comes close to carrying the intimidating mystique of the famous and feared all black with its silver fern.

ON THE OTHER HAND...
You may be playing against Scotland, in which case you resort to a grey-black hybrid which is so awful that the match commissioner asks you to get rid of it at half-time. And you'd changed in the first place so as not to clash with Scotland's navy blue, which is half grey and white. If you can't even work out what to wear, what will you do in a playing crisis?

2 - The identity card.
All Blacks are brought up with rugby from their first sip of mother's milk, and will die for the New Zealand cause.

New Zealand? Don't make me laugh. They have even removed the name of the country from their jerseys, preferring to bear the all-consuming brand 'All Blacks' on their left breast.

3 - And while we're on the subject...
New Zealand have the greatest players in the world, which is why so many of them are highly prized by clubs and provinces in the northern hemisphere.

Exactly, and that's why so many of them can't wait to get the World Cup over and done with before they jump on the first gravy train out of there. Luke McAlister (he's ancient at 24) to Sale, Aaron Mauger (26) to Leicester, Doug Howlett (29) to Munster and so on and so on. "It's too intense being an All Black," says Mauger. Well, boo hoo.

4 - Quality at No.10.
Dan Carter would walk into any team in the world, and his supreme passing, kicking and vision will guide New Zealand to their first World Cup in 20 years.

And what happens when Dan the Man gets injured? We all thought Carlos Spencer was pretty good but it went wrong for him in the 2003 semi-final. Nick Evans would be Carter's replacement so the ABs had better hope the Otago man is made of the right stuff if it ever comes to pass.

5 - Richard the First.
A World XV would not be complete either without Richie McCaw at openside flanker, easily the best in his position.

See Carter above. A hamstring tweak here or a pulled eyebrow there and McCaw could be out faster than an England tailender. Then what? Chris Masoe? Loads of muscle but he doesn't possess 50 per cent of McCaw's natural talent at the breakdown.

6 - The line-out.
Italy, Portugal and Scotland's 2nd XV have hardly landed a blow on the All Blacks in this supposedly troubled department.

Now consider what France might do if they meet New Zealand in the quarter-finals or final. The French rattled Ireland - Paul O'Connell et al - so much in the line-out in the pool match at Stade de France that the Irish lost 25 per cent of their ball. You might be hard pressed to remember it but the Italians also got the odd nudge on at the scrum in the All Blacks' first match. Which brings us neatly to...

7 - Tales of the unexpected.
New Zealand have brought a sports psychologist to France to prepare them for those gut-wrenching moments when things are not going their way.

Yep, that'll be those moments when France let rip, run in a try from 100 metres and you're left standing under the posts with the words "still no win since 1987" scorching through your brain. And don't forget that your quarter-final is in Cardiff, where you couldn't be bothered to do the haka last year, so they will probably flash replays up of France trouncing you at Twickenham in 1999 on the big screen by way of a handy reminder.

8 - Trust in the brains trust.
Graham Henry, Steve Hansen and Wayne Smith are fine coaches on their own; together they represent an unstoppable force.

But they can't kick a ball, deliver a pass or push in the scrum. They're so used to winning, will they know what to say at half-time when the manure hits the air conditioning? Henry had a series-winning position in his hands with the Lions on the 2001 tour of Australia but let it slip when inspiration was notably lacking. Okay, so it could have something to do with him being a Kiwi with all those British and Irish players...

9 - The form guide.
New Zealand have lost only five matches since the last World Cup, an incredible record which wholly justifies their status as favourites.

Let's look a bit closer, shall we? Ah yes, those five losses were all to South Africa and Australia, the two teams which the bookmakers suggest are most likely to stand in the All Blacks' way in the semi-final and final. That record doesn't look so smart now, does it?

10 - The All Blacks deserve to win it, so good on them.
For the standards New Zealand rugby has set the world over the last 100 years, only one World Cup win is a crying shame. They deserve to be champions, as they have the best player base, the best team and the best coaches. They will host the World Cup in 2011, and win it again then too. Having beaten the 2005 Lions 3-0, won the last three Tri-Nations, trounced France in France on tour and won a British Isles Grand Slam, the All Blacks ARE the best team in the world.

Yeah, but life's a bitch, isn't it?

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