Scrum Sevens
Why Wales will win at any cost
Huw Baines
March 19, 2009
A Welsh fan waves a flag at the Millennium Stadium, Wales v France, Six Nations Championship, Millennium Stadium, Cardiff, March 15, 2008
Ireland will have to overcome the Millennium Stadium factor on Saturday © Getty Images
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Ireland travel to the Millennium Stadium on Saturday in search of their first Grand Slam since 1948, and they must be wishing that they were travelling to almost any other ground in world rugby. Here are seven reasons why the Irish might head home with '1948' still hanging over their heads.

The Millennium Stadium

It may not be the biggest, it may not be the prettiest, but on a Six Nations match day it is the most intimidating arena in the world - let alone the Championship. The Welsh fans have high expectations for their side and will be baying for a successful defence of their title, meaning that Ireland will have to conquer the noise and atmosphere as well as one of the most tightly-drilled defences in the game. Hen Wlad fy Nhadau, Cwm Rhondda, Hymns and Arias…get ready for Welsh rugby's greatest hits.

Wales have not lost a Six Nations game at the Millennium Stadium since the corresponding fixture in 2007, and only New Zealand and South Africa have left there victorious since the start of the 2008 Six Nations.

Unfortunately, Ireland will bottle it

Ireland's golden generation has been here before. In 2003 they went into the final game of the tournament against England at Lansdowne Road in a straight shoot-out for the Grand Slam. The final score … 42-6 to England. In 2007 the Championship was within reach until Italian fullback Roland De Marigny squirmed over the Irish line in the final minute in Rome, handing the tournament to France on points difference. Ireland will have to go all out to overcome this psychological burden.

The Ireland side is littered with players who, in the red of Munster, have proven that they can overturn any odds. Paul O'Connell, Ronan O'Gara, John Hayes… the list goes on. All of these great players will have to be at their very best in Cardiff, something that has been missing as recently as two games ago against England.

Wales have been there and done it

In the last four years Wales have faced two Grand Slam deciders at the Millennium Stadium, against Ireland in 2005 and against France in 2008. On both occasions victory was assured with room to spare, 32-20 in 2005 and 29-12 in 2008.

Aside from No.8 Andy Powell, every single member of the Wales starting XV has played in at least one of those games. Despite having not been at their best during this tournament Wales are formidable side at home, and in contrast to the fragile side of the 1990s this squad does not buckle easily under pressure.

The boys are back in town

Gethin Jenkins, Adam Jones, Ian Gough, Ryan Jones and Martyn Williams will all return to the Welsh pack after sitting out last weekend's win in Rome. They're not so much the spine of the team but its heartbeat, with the commitment and work rate of loose-head prop Jenkins having been inspirational during this tournament. He made a staggering 16 tackles against England.

With a settled pack Wales are a dangerous beast. Their back-line feeding off quick ball and a solid set-piece is a proposition that would cause alarm not only in the northern hemisphere, but on the world stage. To be added in to this mix is the fact that Gavin Henson and Tom Shanklin start in the centre - a pairing that has never lost a Six Nations game that they have started together.

The Triple Crown

Many fans from the home unions view the Six Nations as presenting two clear prizes: a Grand Slam or a Triple Crown. Ireland know the importance of a Triple Crown win, having won it in 2004, 2006 and 2007, and Wales will be eyeing the plate.

For proof, take a look at Wales' points-difference Five Nations Championship win in 1994, no Triple Crown, no Grand Slam, no memory. Their 15-8 defeat as they chased the Grand Slam and Triple Crown at Twickenham handed them the title but not the glory, leaving them to wait until 2005 for their next shot.

Wales' last golden generation, Gareth Edwards and his magnificent 1970s side, had a stranglehold on the Five Nations. Wales' current crop have had their hands on the silverware twice in the last four years, and it is games like this that they have to win if they are to emulate the feats of their predecessors. They're in with a shout come the final weekend, and winning is everything.

The Italian Job

Make no bones about it, this was Wales' worst performance under Warren Gatland. They huffed and puffed, their scrum went backwards and they failed to produce anything resembling a coherent strategy. In the past Wales would have had a bullseye on their chest following a result like that one, but now their disappointment is tinged with a fire to prove their critics wrong.

Gatland has admitted his mistake in selecting a side filled with fringe players and has handed the reins this weekend to a good few players who will believe that they should have been on the pitch to take the game to Italy. This is not a weak side and their character will show on the big stage this weekend.

Beware a wounded lion.

Messrs Gatland, Edwards and Howley

Shaun Edwards' defence hasn't been as good this year as it was last year. Wales' backs haven't clicked to their full potential yet. The coaches know this and the players will know this. They'll also know that this weekend they absolutely have to fire. It's days like this that test the hard-nosed attitudes of men like Gatland, and they're also the days in which they often pull it out at any cost.

Gatland's Wasps side became the pinnacle in terms of knockout rugby earlier in this decade, securing the spoils in domestic and European competition regardless of how rocky their road to the final was. Sound familiar?

Stay tuned to Scrum.com tomorrow to see why Graham Jenkins thinks Ireland will take the spoils in Cardiff

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