Super Rugby
Waratahs stand out amid organised chaos
Richard Kelly
March 12, 2015
Super Rugby Preview: Round 5

Heading into round five of Super Rugby and we are already coming to expect the unexpected, with the biggest shock of the week being if every single game goes the way of the bookmakers.

Four pulsating rounds have produced a series of shock results with all but two sides tasting defeat. Pair this with the fact that few punters will have backed the Stormers to win their first four games of the season and you've got one of the most unpredictable starts to a campaign.

We're still waiting to find out who the front-runners will be this season, simply because, from 1-15, the clubs seem very well matched across a number of departments.

Season20112012201320142011201220132014
TeamRedsChiefsChiefsWaratahsRedsChiefsChiefsWaratahs
Points19.325.340.037.526.527.828.130.0
Tries 1.02.34.75.02.82.93.03.3
Carries79.7107.3112.3127.5101.1105.6109.1132.7
Metres259.7433.3430.7544.5417.1445.3454.8521.1
Clean Breaks3.06.58.311.56.210.18.99.5
Defenders Beaten8.714.521.018.512.618.119.521.3
Offloads7.711.315.016.08.412.112.314.3
Passes100.0108.8142.0164.0122.1115.1122.2165.3
Tackle %89%90%88%87%89%90%88%87%
Penalties Conceded11.711.311.314.510.111.69.712.4
Turnovers Conceded15.315.515.019.014.815.115.315.4
Lineout %88%84%79%79%86%80%79%82%
Scrum %82%92%100%85%85%87%91%85%
Ruck %92%93%98%95%93%94%95%95%
Time in Possession13:3115:2413:5316:4016:2415:4414:0116:31

This week, we aim to discover whether any of the 2015 competitors are showing similar traits to those who've lifted the trophy in recent seasons as we compare the opening four rounds of the season with the recent champions' opening month, as well as their eventual match averages.

In 2014, the Waratahs maintained remarkable consistency throughout their victorious campaign after a frenetic start. Their star-studded backline blew everyone away with high counts for metres, breaks, offloads and passes. This year, despite some less than convincing results, the NSW boys seem to matching up to those averages which makes for ominous reading for sides seeking to destroy their title defence.

The Stormers have forced their way into early contention partly thanks to sharp goal-kicking. If the South Africans can get over the try-line more often, then they ought to be considered a very credible competition threat. Perhaps the lack of tries so far is explained by their inability to break the line. However, a strong ranking for defenders beaten offers hope that clean breaks may not be too far away.

Season2015201520152015201520152015
TeamLionsRebelsRedsSharksStormersWaratahsAverage
Points13.021.09.826.526.824.720.3
Tries 0.82.01.02.31.82.71.7
Carries89.3116.774.585.597.3122.797.6
Metres290.5370.3290.0351.0360.3541.0367.2
Clean Breaks3.55.05.36.56.310.76.2
Defenders Beaten13.018.013.813.818.825.317.1
Offloads5.56.35.310.06.014.37.9
Passes104.3119.091.579.3105.3171.0111.7
Tackle %89%85%86%84%86%89%86%
Penalties Conceded10.810.712.812.010.013.011.5
Turnovers Conceded14.013.014.814.813.517.014.5
Lineout %79%76%92%81%79%86%0.8
Scrum %84%90%84%82%93%86%87%
Ruck %94%95%90%95%94%96%94%
Time in Possession14:2715:5213:3713:2215:2116:2914:35

New Zealand conference leaders, the Chiefs, bare some resemblance to the champion outfits of 2012 and 2013, though they have added an offload game to their attacking repertoire. Across the Tasman in Australia, meanwhile, the Brumbies have gone a little old-school in their approach, but their try-scoring exploits should not be ignored if we're looking to single out sides with finals credentials. Their modest returns for ball-carries and metres are complimented with strong showings when it comes to breaks and defenders beaten.

Elsewhere across the competition, there are teams that are excelling in certain areas almost on par with the top sides in years gone by. The Bulls are free-scoring and the Cheetahs know their way over to the line despite a lack of possession.

The usual suspects, the Crusaders, are yet to explode this season but are at least getting their set-piece right. The Force demolished the Waratahs but have since paid the price for poor fundamentals; the scrum and kicking, in particular. The Hurricanes are not only scoring plenty of points but are also dominant without the ball. The Lions and Reds are among the early-season strugglers, while loose defence has let down the dangerous Rebels. The Sharks should again be a threat but have missed an unusual amount of tackles.

Season201520152015201520152015201520152015
TeamBluesBrumbiesBullsCheetahsChiefsCrusadersForceHighlandersHurricanes
Points17.027.828.026.724.817.314.820.027.0
Tries 1.33.32.33.02.51.31.81.32.7
Carries101.892.8101.070.0107.3110.0114.888.797.0
Metres437.8311.5369.3277.0471.8387.7331.5380.3374.7
Clean Breaks7.84.36.35.38.35.04.37.37.7
Defenders Beaten20.514.519.010.318.012.715.017.318.3
Offloads9.57.06.55.318.310.05.810.710.3
Passes133.3108.3103.375.7124.3141.0111.8121.3131.3
Tackle %87%87%87%85%87%89%83%85%91%
Penalties Conceded12.58.512.810.711.812.310.813.311.3
Turnovers Conceded14.315.812.814.015.517.014.315.311.7
Lineout %88%91%85%82%91%88%83%96%84%
Scrum %80%84%79%85%87%96%69%83%94%
Ruck %94%92%96%94%94%91%95%91%95%
Time in Possession15:3814:2615:5511:3015:1314:5715:3212:4413:37

It's all a bit of organised chaos at the moment.

But, after eight or nine rounds of action, we may be able to whittle the above word jumble down to a number of clear front-runners for the finals. At the moment, only the Waratahs are showing genuine similarities to the champions of recent seasons.

© Opta Stats for ESPN Sports Media Ltd

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