- World Cup - Outright betting preview
Spain odds-on but Dutch dangerous
Paul the Octopus may have spoken (he says Spain) and the bookies certainly feel that the European champions should see off Holland to win the World Cup final on Sunday, but that doesn't mean the Dutch should be written off.
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After all, Holland have won all six of their matches, which is more than can be said of Spain, who were beaten by Switzerland in their opening match. No team has ever won the World Cup after losing their first one, so Spain have that to get over first.
Secondly, Spain have to get past a Holland side that love being underdogs and who have played superbly, even enjoying some of the luck that every side needs to win a World Cup. Twice runners-up, the nation of 16 million people have made it to the final again, which is a pretty remarkable achievement.
Both sides play pretty similar styles of football and it may come down to who has the most possession and who can take the odd chance. I fancy Robin van Persie to score, but it's tough to see past Spain, who are 1.50 to win the Cup, whether it be in 90 minutes or after extra time and penalties. Holland are 2.40.
Holland love it when they are written off and few people fancy them to win on Sunday, which will suit them nicely. There may only be a goal in it, it's that close, but I do feel the Spanish have the edge, even if I don't feel at all confident in saying even that.
In the end, maybe we can all just sit back and enjoy one of the few finals in recent times between two teams who play attractive football!
Original preview
Since 1954, with the notable exceptions of England in 1966 and France in 1998, four countries have dominated the World Cup - Brazil, Italy, Argentina and Germany.
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Now Germany may not be the force they were and defending champions Italy are nowhere near as good as they were four years ago. Replace those two with Spain and then you have a trio that will almost certainly produce the winner in South Africa this summer.
It's never that wise to write off Germany - in 2002 they reached the final with a distinctly average side and another average side rode the wave of home support to make the semi-finals. But they do not have the world-beaters of yesteryear in their ranks this time and though they will be as well prepared as ever, I just don't see them winning it.
Likewise Italy, who have gone backwards since their fabulous triumph in Germany. Their squad is ageing and they appear to be lacking a proven goalscorer - or at least one who strikes fear into defences - though they could yet surprise us. They will improve as the tournament goes on, as they always do, but again, they look one or two players short this time round.
There are teams who will fancy their chances - I am thinking of England and Holland above all - but we will come to them later on, for they are still outsiders, even if patriotic bookmakers will have England too high in the betting, as they always do.
So for the outright selection, we come to a choice between Brazil, Spain and Argentina. Brazil are the perennial favourites but for once they are not top of the list and Sportingbet make Spain top of the pile at 5.0, just ahead of Brazil, who are 6.0. Remarkably, England are next at 7.0, ahead of Argentina at 8.50, with a big gap then to Germany, Italy and Holland, all of whom are 13.0.
Now I know that many of you will be shouting: 'Argentina? They needed a play-off to make it through qualifying?!' Well, that's absolutely true and there is also the major question as to whether Diego Maradona can control himself long enough to give his side some direction.
There is no question that having Maradona there is an inspiration to many of the squad though and if they can play for their idol then that makes them dangerous. What makes them more dangerous is the quality of their starting XI, led by the brilliant Lionel Messi. Messi has to be the best player in the world at the moment, whatever Cristiano Ronaldo might think.
The little magician seemingly has the ball on a string and though he can be shut out, it takes the incredible organisation that Inter Milan showed to do that. For a national team to be together enough to do it is another matter, even if the players should be even better.
In addition to Messi, they have resilience, fitness and sheer desire in the form of their captain, Javier Mascherano, while they also have the kind of blend of youth and experience that always bodes well for a World Cup campaign. On paper, I would put them on a par with Spain, but doing it on the pitch is more difficult.
Were it not for niggling injuries to Fernando Torres, Andres Iniesta and Xabi, I would happily say that Spain will win this thing but they need those three fit if they're to stay consistent enough to do it. Iniesta was the stand-out player of their European Championship-winning side, Xabi has been sensational alongside him for Barcelona this year and Torres is arguably the best striker in the world.
Unlike in previous years, though, Spain now have immense strength in depth. Cesc Fabregas, just coming back from injury himself, is a more than able stand-in for the midfielders, while the likes of David Villa would get into any attacking line-up.
And so to Brazil. They will forever be known as the players who can produce the beautiful football but over the years, Brazil's flair has been matched by a bit more steel than in the past, which only enhances their chances of yet another victory.
In simple numbers terms, it's their turn again, having won in 1994 and 2002 but missed out in 1998 to France and then four years ago to Italy. They qualified with three rounds of matches remaining - stark contrast to Argentina - and with players like Kaka and Pato, and a shrewd coach in Dunga, there is not a lot wrong with them.
Outside of the top three are a number of teams capable of causing an upset and marching through to the last four, or perhaps further. England, Italy, Germany, Portugal and Holland fit the mould. England have improved a lot under Fabio Capello and in Wayne Rooney have a striker who could be one of the stars of the tournament.
Italy and Germany have the experience to work their way into a big event, never hitting the ground running but always doing enough to make it through, which is when they become dangerous. The Dutch, too, have oodles of talent but whether they can string enough results together remains to be seen. Portugal have Cristiano Ronaldo and this could be his big chance to shine.
And what of the African teams? South Africa will doubtless stage a great tournament but they are no great shakes. Instead, Ghana, Cameroon and the Ivory Coast are likely to carry Africa's hopes. Of those three, Ghana look the most talented and the team with the most experience of late, so Sportingbet's price of 67.00 could be worth snapping up.
Each-way odds are a bit tight, at half the odds if your chosen side reach the final. But sooner or later, one of the African sides is going to break through, so 34.00 on Ghana to make the final is tempting.
Of the real outsiders, you can get 67.00 on the Americans winning it; 126.00 on the Aussies shocking the world, while South Korea, semi-finalists in 2002, are 201.00.
I would like to point out that I tipped the Italians to win the tournament four years ago, but while I don't have the same kind of feeling this time and though I wouldn't be at all surprised to see Spain or Brazil lift the trophy, I do just have a sneaking feeling that Argentina may just come good.
Cambers' Call
Argentina to win World Cup E/W - 8.50 Sportingbet
Ghana to win World Cup E/W - 67.00 Sportingbet
Simon Cambers is Soccernet's betting correspondent
Simon Cambers is Soccernet's betting correspondent
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