- 2010 World Cup - Top goalscorer preview
Villa odds-on for Golden Boot
David Villa was the favourite to be the World Cup's leading goalscorer at the outset of the competition and after scoring five goals in five games to lead Spain into the semi-finals, he is now odds-on to complete the feat.
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With a semi-final to come against Germany, though, they are far from guaranteed to get to the final but with Fernando Torres still working his way up to full fitness, Villa is the key to the European champions' hopes of making it. Bet365 make him 1.5 to end up on top.
Argentina's Higuain, Vittek of Slovakia, Miroslav Klose and Thomas Mueller have all got four but of those, only Mueller and Klose remain and Mueller is suspended from the semi-final with Spain.
So that leaves Klose, the man who can't stop scoring in World Cups, as the 4.50 second favourite, with Holland's Wesley Sneijder on three and with a very winnable semi-final against Uruguay to come, an 8.50 chance.
Original preview
Spain's form in the lead-up to the World Cup has been the best of the lot so it's no surprise that David Villa has been cut to be the tournament's leading goalscorer.
With Fernando Torres fit again after injury but needing matches to regain full sharpness, Villa is favourite on his own, at 8.50, while Argentina's maestro Lionel Messi is second at 10.0 and England's Wayne Rooney is 11.0.
Luiis Fabiano is 12.0, while Torres, who if fit, is brilliant, and Robin van Persie, are now both 13.0. Van Persie was 21.0 just a month ago so I hope you took the early advice and backed the man with the bullet of a left foot.
Original preview
Probably the bet that gives the most enjoyment for many people at the World Cup finals is picking the man who will finish with the Golden Boot as the leading goalscorer in the tournament.
Click here to bet on the World Cup at Sportingbet
Sorry to those of you who simply like a patriotic punt or take a fancy to one player off the cuff, but much like a cricket series, this should be treated in a relatively mathematical way.
Sportingbet make Argentina's Lionel Messi and Spain's David Villa the joint favourites to come out on top at 10.00, with Luis Fabiano of Brazil and England's Wayne Rooney on 11.00, just ahead of the other Spain frontman, Fernando Torres, at 12.00.
Apart from the fact that the aforementioned men are all superb strikers, the one thing they have in common is that they all play for the top teams in the competition. That's important for the obvious reason that the more matches a player plays, the more chance he has of scoring more goals.
So, the better the team the better the chance that one of their number will come out on top. With a few exceptions, the winner of the Golden Boot has usually been someone in a team that has made at least the semi-finals of the competition.
If you are going to bet win-only, then you're again looking at the top teams, hence the proliferation of Brazilians and Spaniards at the top of the betting.
The other thing to look at it is who those teams are playing in their groups. Although there are very few easy games in a World Cup, some of the big guns will play minnows in the group stages and there will always be a chance for someone to bang in a hat-trick.
So while there may be few people betting on France to win the tournament itself, there may be a few more hoping that a few quid each-way on Nicolas Anelka could pay dividends. France have a relatively easy group and play hosts South Africa, who are pretty poor, so Anelka could well smash in a few goals in the one game.
Other than the hosts, I would say that Switzerland and Honduras are probably the weakest sides, which means that Viilla and Torres will be licking their lips for Spain are the big name in their group. Indeed, that makes those two even stronger bets in this market.
The only reason Villa is above Torres in the betting is the recent injury to Torres but if the Liverpool striker is fit to start Spain's first match, then I would take him above Villa, for he is absolutely breathtaking when in full flight.
Other things to look for are players who are fresher than most. Robin van Persie missed half of the English season but looked sharp when he came back at the end and at 21.00 he could well be worth a bet in what can be a free-scoring Holland team, especially with Sportingbet paying out a quarter of the odds for the first four.
Miroslav Klose topped the list in 2006 and is still scoring goals, so he could be interesting at 29.00, while the other Germany striker, Lukas Podolski, could be good value at 41.00.
The final thing to take into account - penalty-takers. There are not that many penalties in a World Cup - a player may get one, perhaps two at best - and so the likes of Brazil's Kaka, on offer at 29.00, may get closer than he otherwise would.
Portugal, the other big team in Brazil's group, are hugely talented and this could be Cristiano Ronaldo's big chance to shine, so don't be surprised to see him in there, at 19.00.
Simon Cambers is Soccernet's betting correspondent
Simon Cambers is Soccernet's betting correspondent
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