• ATP World Tour Finals

Fed's finish masks his decline

Roger Federer has recovered from a difficult period in the middle of the season © Getty Images

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Roger Federer trampled over David Ferrer at the ATP World Tour Finals on Saturday, and was promptly installed as the 1/4 favourite to lift the London title for a second successive year. Against Ferrer, the Swiss legend was at his regal best, sauntering to a 7-5 6-3 victory that booked his place in the final.

It was an entirely predictable triumph - Federer had stormed through the group stages, and beaten Ferrer in each of their last 11 meetings - but that's not to take away from its quality. The win also means that Federer has now reached 100 tour-level finals in his career.

If he wins the final against Tomas Berdych or Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - and he probably will - then the eulogies will rain down, all of them fully deserved. Yet let's not forget that this has been a chastening season for him, one where he has slipped further and further away from the top of the game, where he set up camp for so many years.

He reached just one final between March and October, a period in which he appeared uncharacteristically vulnerable - and prone to being hammered off the court by ferocious hitters. Consider his Wimbledon exit, when Tsonga recovered from two sets down to eliminate him at the quarter-final stage. The Frenchman repeated the trick two months later in Canada, then Berdych powered past Federer in Cincinnati.

There he stood, looking every bit the faded force, his elegance no match for the missiles flying past him on both flanks. But although rattled, he wasn't finished - in fact, far from it, as he proved with a win in Basel during October and then in Paris the following month.

Yet we shouldn't assume he is ready to challenge Rafael Nadal, Novak Djokovic - or even Andy Murray - for the No. 1 spot next season. Both Nadal and Djokovic have justifiably complained of tiredness at the end of gruelling years, stuttering through their London matches without their usual energy and determination. They will return to their dominant best after a period of convalescence.

We should also learn the lessons from last year, when Federer won in Basel and then at the Tour Finals - only to find his 2011 season faltering when it really mattered: the period where the grand slams are contested. When all the big guns were at their best, Federer's decline from his peerless peak was all too evident.

So when the courts quicken up next year - and the London surfaces have been slow - it's hard to see him faring any better than he did in 2011.

Celebrate his genius on Sunday, because it might be your last opportunity for a while.

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