• What the Deuce

Roddick gets his season off to a flier

January 12, 2010

What do Andy Roddick, Marin Cilic and Nikolay Davydenko have in common? Well, they are all unbeaten in 2010. OK, so we are only two weeks into the year and a five-match unbeaten streak isn't really worth writing home about, but when the likes of Federer and Nadal have already lost that particular claim, perhaps it's worth bearing in mind.

As the Australian Open approaches, Roddick already has a psychological advantage over his rivals. After seeing off defending champion Radek Stepanek in straight sets in the final in Brisbane, Roddick has already equalled his 2009 titles tally.

In his first event back after picking up a knee injury in October, Roddick dropped just one set en route to the final, although he is far from the polished article. After racing to a 5-1 lead in the second set against Stepanek, Roddick looked to be cruising, but he failed to close out the match and was taken to a second tie-breaker. However, he maintained his 2010 unbeaten record in tie-breaks to win his first title in nearly a year, when he beat Stepanek in Memphis last February.

It is only the second time since 2004 that Roddick has played a warm-up tournament ahead of the Australian Open, and he is enjoying his best ever start to a season. And while he hadn't played a competitive match since October and may be forgiven for being a little rusty, perhaps an extended break will have given him an edge over players who have hardly had any time off since the season ended less than six weeks ago.

It is eight years since A-Rod moved into the top ten, and over six since he last won his first, and to date only, Grand Slam title at the 2003 US Open. He was billed as the man to take over where Pete Sampras left off, and while he has always been there or thereabouts, he has failed to really live up to the hype. Last year's Wimbledon showed glimpses of Roddick being back to his best, and now, with Federer and Nadal back within touch of the top ten, the four-time Australian Open semi-finalist is now a genuine contender to win his second Grand Slam title.

And his coach certainly thinks so. Larry Stefanki, who teamed up with Roddick at the end of the 2008 season, believes Roddick is one of ten guys who can win the Australian Open. "There's no lock any more - there's no Roger Show any more," Stefanki said after Roddick's victory in Brisbane. "They are all thinking the same thing and that's what I love about men's tennis at the moment. Andy is as good a chance as anybody and that's what I keep telling him."

Desperate for another Grand Slam title to add to his 2003 US Open title, Roddick seems to be hitting a run of form at just the right time. He has the fastest serve in the world, and that remains his greatest weapon. In the five matches in Brisbane he served 54 aces, nowhere near to his best (his record is 42 in a match) but his ability to close out his service game has improved.

Roddick has won 93 percent of his service games, and 75 of points on his serve, compared to Federer, Nadal and Davydenko who have all won less than 70% of points on their serve. But while the year-to-date data can be misleading after just a fortnight, Roddick can't get away from other less flattering statistics - that in 21 meetings with Federer, he has won just two matches.

But the beauty of sport is that as soon as the first ball is served, the formbook goes out of the window. Add to that the fact that Australian Open is the most unpredictable of all of the Grand Slams. Between them, Federer and Nadal have won every Wimbledon and Roland Garros since July 2004, whereas Melbourne has seen eight finalists and four different champions in the last five years. It's a brand new season, and a lot can happen between the end of season and the start of a new one.

Federer is the bookies' favourite, but Nadal is back to full fitness and Davydenko is in ominously good form. The Australian Open is wide open, but based on what we've seen so far, world No.7 Roddick looks like he could be the dark horse.

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