• What the Deuce

Clay King Nadal poised to regain No. 1 crown

Rafael Nadal ended his drought to claim his first title in nearly a year at Monte Carlo © Getty Images

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Rafael Nadal's scorching victory over Fernando Verdasco in Monte Carlo was a performance of a player back to his scintillating best. The world No. 3 admitted that his one-sided 6-0 6-1 victory was an emotional one after claiming his first title in almost a year.

After he hobbled off of his Australian Open quarter-final to a red-hot Andy Murray in January, What the Deuce was left wondering whether the clay master would ever return to the form that saw him knock Roger Federer off the top of the world rankings.

He returned for back-to-back Masters events at Indian Wells and Miami last month, and looked to be injury free on the punishing American hard courts. Two-semi final appearances suggested Nadal was nearly back to his best, but he just seemed to lack the belief to kill off a match.

As the tennis circus moves to the European clay courts, Nadal is back in his element. Back on the red dirt he was brought up playing on, the Spaniard's game is well suited to the clay, with his heavy topspin and speed across the court. Combine that with the fact that left-handers are thought to have a natural advantage, and it's easy to see why Nadal has such an impressive record on clay.

Nadal was virtually unstoppable on the surface two years ago, the year he launched his assault on top spot; claiming the French Open title for a fourth time, ending Federer's dominance at the All England Club to claim his first Wimbledon title and bagging an Olympic gold medal to boot.

After defending his titles in Monte Carlo, Barcelona and Rome last year, Nadal's season was struck tragically short by tendinitis in both knees, and after falling to his first ever defeat at Roland Garros, he was forced to withdraw from the first defence of his Wimbledon title. Until Sunday, he had not won a title in nearly a year.

But now is he is back, and the question remains, can anyone challenge Nadal on clay? In just over 200 matches on clay, the Spaniard has lost just 16 matches - a stunning 92% winning record. On the top of his game, Nadal is simply unbeatable, as he demonstrated against Verdasco.

Verdasco, also a left-handed Spaniard and a former world No.7, is a good clay-courter, but he simply had no answer for Nadal, whose speed across the court was almost superhuman. Every time Verdasco hit a winner, or what would have been a winning shot against any other player, Nadal not only managed to get his racquet to it, but more often than not managed to find a winner himself.

The confidence, agility and flair of the King of Clay was no more evident than in a single point in the second set. At 6-0 4-1 in the second set, Verdasco won an epic 32-shot rally that saw Nadal return a series of near-impossible returns as his opponent desperately searched for the winner. When Nadal finally hit a return wide for Verdasco's first break point opportunity, the Spanish No. 2 fell to the floor in celebration as if he had won the match.

Nadal was simply unstoppable in Monaco last week © Getty Images

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When Roger Federer returns to action in Rome next week, it will be interesting to see which Federer takes to the court. Like Andy Murray, Federer has suffered a slump in form since their Australian Open final meeting in January, and much has been made of the fact that his priorities may have changed since his wife gave birth to twin girls last summer.

Federer looked off colour at Indian Wells and Miami, where he failed to reach the quarter-finals on both occasions. But last year the world No. 1 enjoyed his best season to date on the clay, taking full advantage of Nadal's downfall to claim the one Grand Slam that still eluded him at the French Open.

Federer kicks off his clay-court campaign in Rome before heading to Madrid and the French Open at the end of May, having triumphed in two finals last year.

"It's good to be back on the red clay," Federer wrote on his official website last week. "I've been practicing fitness and tennis these past days and I am really excited for the upcoming stretch of tournaments here in Europe."

Federer may be excited at the prospect of defending two titles on clay, but there is a lot more than just prize money at stake. His reign at the top of the world rankings could be coming to an end.

Federer has made no secret of his desire to maintain his status as the world No. 1, suggesting that Nadal didn't share his drive to top the rankings, but regardless of whether it is his priority, Nadal could be set to topple Federer from his No. 1 spot.

Federer currently tops the rankings with an impressive 10,690 points, but with nearly 3400 to defend on clay, he is in danger of being caught by the red-hot Nadal. Nadal is currently third in the rankings, over 3500 behind on 6980. After pulling out of Barcelona on Monday for a well-earned rest, Nadal has the potential to grab 5000 points from the clay season if he wins all three of his remaining tournaments on clay, following his victory at Monte Carlo.

Should Federer pick up 1440 points, which equates to three semi-final appearances, he will have 8770 points heading into the grass court season. Assuming Nadal completes a cleansweep on clay (which obviously is not guaranteed, but if he plays anywhere near as well as he did in Monte Carlo it is difficult to see anyone beating him) he will end the clay season on 8600 points. From a gap of nearly 3000 points to less than 200, suddenly Federer's lofty position at the top of the rankings looks decidedly less secure.

Providing Nadal does not slip up on the red dirt the Spaniard could take over the No. 1 spot in front of British fans in London. He wasn't able to defend his title at Queen's Club or Wimbledon last year, which means there are a further 2500 more points up for grabs on the grass in June.

Had he played in Barcelona this week and enjoyed a clay-court whitewash, Nadal might have already secured the No. 1 spot before the grass-court season begins. But quite fittingly, he could return to the top spot on the hallowed turf of Centre Court, where he is the only man in to have beaten the great Roger Federer in seven years.

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