• What the Deuce

Lies, damned lies and seedings

Michael Beattie
April 30, 2013
Rafael Nadal is back to winning ways - but will it be enough for a return to the top four in time for the French Open? © AP
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There's every chance Dmitry Tursunov will find a couple of extra towels in his locker at this year's French Open. His first-round match may not be as far from the players' lounge as a world No. 58 might otherwise expect, and his drivers will shuttle him to and from the grounds in what may feel like double-quick time. Doors opening for him, practice courts readily available - because the Russian has offered the organisers of the year's second grand slam some hope of avoiding a monumental headache.

Having come through qualifying and a first-round win over Denis Istomin at the Barcelona Open, Tursunov defeated top seed David Ferrer. Taken in isolation, the result was a shock - while 30-year-old Tursunov is entering the twilight of a semi-charmed career, 31-year-old Ferrer is enjoying something of an Indian summer - but it could have huge implications for the eventual champion in Barcelona, Rafael Nadal.

Top seed David Ferrer. As the highest-ranked player in the Barcelona draw, that seems fair enough. But Rafael Nadal, ranked just behind Ferrer at No. 5 in the world, was the defending champion - as he has been each time he has played the tournament since he first won it in 2005. He beat Ferrer in the final in both 2011 and 2012. Going by the rankings, however, Ferrer had the No. 1 by his name.

They'll be going by the rankings in Paris as well, as it stands. The French Open seeding traditionally follows the ATP and WTA standings, which if taken today would place world No. 1 Novak Djokovic and No. 2 Roger Federer in separate halves of the draw, with Andy Murray and Ferrer kept clear of them both until the semi-finals. As for Nadal, defending champion and seven-time winner of the French Open? As No. 5 seed, he'd be in line for a quarter-final showdown with any one of them.

Current world top 10

  • 1. Novak Djokovic
    2. Roger Federer
    3. Andy Murray
    4. David Ferrer
    5. Rafael Nadal
    6. Tomas Berdych
    7. Juan Martin Del Potro
    8. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga
    9. Richard Gasquet
    10. Janko Tipsarevic

That can't be right, can it? Draws are seeded to keep the top players apart until the closing stages of a tournament. On the ATP Tour, that process is simple enough: they turn to their own rankings as the arbiter on a weekly basis, and rightly so - it's the measure of success of a season's work. But should the same rules apply at the grand slams, the four tournaments of the year that offer champions their place in tennis folklore? Surely not - which is why the grand slams have the option to seed the world's top 32 players at their discretion.

The system is not without its critics. Before 2001, the organisers of the Australian, French and US Opens and Wimbledon selected their own set of 16 seeds. At SW19, those seedings often saw clay court specialists bumped down or overlooked altogether, including the likes of Spain's former world No. 1 Alex Corretja and 1997 French Open champion Carlos Moya. A compromise was eventually reached 12 years ago to avoid a player boycott, with the slams doubling the number of seeds on the proviso that the world's top 32 players could be seeded in an order of their choosing.

David Ferrer is currently ranked above Rafael Nadal, but his Barcelona Open exit has offered his fellow Spaniard the chance to overtake him before they reach Paris © AP
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Away from Wimbledon, played on a surface that only features on the tennis calendar for little more than a month, the slams have largely deferred to the rankings. Pete Sampras was installed as top seed for five years at the French Open in the 1990s, but reached the semi-finals just once. Nobody ever felt Sampras was unlucky in Paris - his game just didn't stack up well enough on clay - but his No. 1 world ranking, a slot he held for 286 weeks during his career mainly on the back of his grass and hard-court prowess, earned him top spot.

Where Wimbledon organisers faced calls to stop meddling with seedings, the French Open is being urged to do so. Last week Guy Forget, a Roland Garros committee member and former French Davis Cup player and captain, believes the tournament owes it to the fans to let the seedings do what they are designed to do: save the best showdowns for the semi-finals and final.

"Since we can see them meeting in the finals of the biggest events in the next weeks, it would be a shame to have them [meet] in a quarter-final in Roland Garros," Forget said. "The rules state the grand slam events have the right to change the seeding regarding the situation of the players. Wimbledon has done that in the past. I would not find it illogical to change the seeds."

Why has Nadal's ranking slumped? Because of the seven-month injury lay-off he took after his shock second-round exit at Wimbledon in 2012. The rankings collate points accumulated over a 12-month period, leaving Nadal hampered by the points void between July 2012 and January 2013. Since his comeback he's reached the final of every event he's played, winning four titles in the process. He's lost just twice, to Horacio Zeballos in his first tournament of the year and world No. 1 Djokovic in Monte Carlo, and has a 26-2 record heading to Madrid and Rome. In short, Nadal is back.

For that reason, John McEnroe believes that the French Open owes it to Djokovic, Federer, Murray and Ferrer to bump Nadal's seeding up. "Let me put it to you this way: I guarantee you that none of those four guys, as great as they are, want to see him in the quarters," McEnroe said. "Quite honestly, I would seed him No. 1. I'd seed him No. 1, actually, because I think he deserves that. I think the other players deserve it."

Andy Murray admits clay is his least favourite surface, but has reached the semi-finals at Roland Garros © Getty Images
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But if Nadal is to be seeded in the top four, who above him misses out? Not Djokovic or Federer - Big Mac might have last year's finalist Novak missing out on the No. 1 spot, but he'd still be protected from the rest of the top four until the semis. The same goes for former champion Federer, whose claims to a subjective seeding on clay are above question. That leaves Murray and Ferrer. Andy may concede that clay is his worst surface, but as a former French Open semi-finalist he'd feel hard done by to be bumped down two spots, as would Ferrer, who reached the final four in 2012 and has won a clay court title in 2013, to be bumped down one.

The decision could yet be academic, which brings us back to Tursunov. Nadal had to win in Barcelona, and must win both the Madrid and Rome Masters, to be in with a chance of regaining a top-four ranking. He'll also be relying on Ferrer exiting before the semi-finals in both tournaments, otherwise there's no way he can return to the ATP's top four before he reaches Paris.

Had Ferrer reached the Barcelona Open final for a third year in succession, quarter-final appearances in Rome or Madrid would have been enough to stay in the top four. As it is, he now needs to reach the final four at both - and should he do that, it will be hard to make the case for his exclusion from the top four seeds at Roland Garros.

You could forgive the tournament organisers in Paris for hoping that Ferrer runs into another inspired opponent or two over the next few weeks. Otherwise one question will dominate the build-up to the French Open: To seed or not to seed?

© ESPN Sports Media Ltd.
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