• Chris Wilkinson

Time for a changing of the guard?

Chris Wilkinson March 22, 2011

If you had told Novak Djokovic at the beginning of the season that he would win the Australian Open and go on an 18-match winning streak, he would have bitten your arm off!

Djokovic is looking very good and he is undoubtedly the best player in the world at the moment. He has the belief and has justified his status as the new world No. 2.

Although he has reached No. 2 before, it has always been as a result of Rafael Nadal's injury or Roger Federer's slump in form. But winning three tournaments in a row he has earned his rise in the rankings, and it is not beyond the realms of possibility that he could become No. 1 this year - especially as Nadal has three Masters titles and the French Open to defend on the clay and there could be a change in the guard. It's great for the game, that you have three top-class players all battling for the top ranking.

Confidence has been a massive factor in Djokovic's success - he now has the belief in his own ability that perhaps hindered him in the past which means he is winning points that he wouldn't have done before. He has now beaten Federer three times already this year, and his win over Nadal was his first in six final appearances against the world No. 1 - which is a huge mental barrier to have hurdled.

Ivan Lendl and John McEnroe both won eight titles in a row, but in this day and age, that is just not feasible. The changes in surface and the wear and tear on the body and the depth of players on the tour, Djokovic will lose a match in the next few weeks. He is going to get tired, and with less than a week's break before the Sony Ericsson Open I expect defeat to come in Miami. The exertions of the last couple of months are going to catch up with him sooner or later.

The exertions of the last couple of months are going to catch up with him sooner or later

Juan Martin del Potro had a really good week. I still stand by my belief that Del Potro will not be a major threat until the US Open but despite all that Djokovic achieved the Argentine gets my vote for player of the week. Having been out for so long making the semi-finals at a Masters event is a great achievement.

It was a surprise to see Robin Soderling fall as early as he did - having won three titles already this season he looked ready to kick on, but it looks like he might be nursing a slight injury. Ryan Harrison is a rising star, but then you have the likes of Richard Gasquet and Ivo Karlovic who are threatening to re-emerge.

Andy Murray's defeat is old news already but I'm getting a real sense of déjà-vu - it is not a welcome habit for him to be getting into. Perhaps he could consider becoming a doubles specialist - he lost his opening singles matches in Rotterdam and Indian Wells but did quite well with brother Jamie - reaching the semi-finals in Holland and losing in the quarter-finals to the eventual champions in California.

Andy Murray could benefit from a change in coaching regime © Getty Images
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He just didn't really show up for his defeat to Donald Young - it was the biggest win of Young's career, and it was arguably the worst defeat of Murray's career. This is the second year that he has struggled after reaching the Australian Open final, but he needs to get on with it. He needs to get fired up for the tournaments that come up.

You have to wonder whether the motivation is there and you look at his coaching set-up and wonder whether a change of personnel would make a difference. A fresh injection of ideas might be just what he needs. Something has got to change - he is having too many dips in form that Nadal and Federer, and now Djokovic, just don't have - and they are grand slam champions. He can't afford to keep having these lapses but all he needs is a bit more confidence - and a couple of wins would solve that problem.

While he can take heart from Djokovic's achievements, Murray can benefit from Federer and Nadal slipping this season. Federer is unlikely to ever get back to the form he had in 2006 and Nadal will always struggle to stay fully fit for a whole season.

Every week is important for Murray, and he needs points to keep pace with the top three and Soderling at world No. 4. With the clay court season fast approaching, he desperately needs a confidence boost as he will struggle to make an impact on his least-favoured surface. He lost early to Mardy Fish in Miami last year, but he won the title there in 2009. He needs another big week like that at Key Biscayne.

Chris Wilkinson is a former British No. 1

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Chris Wilkinson is a former British No. 1, who now serves as a tennis commentator and as a coach for the LTA. He is ESPN.co.uk's resident expert, providing an exclusive view on the world of tennis. Chris Wilkinson is a former British No. 1, who now serves as a tennis commentator and as a coach for the LTA. He is ESPN.co.uk's resident expert, providing an exclusive view on the world of tennis.