• What the Deuce

The hunter becomes the hunted

Rafael Nadal was unbeaten on the clay in 2010 © Getty Images

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Twelve months ago Rafael Nadal was on the verge of an historic season - having struggled with his fitness in the early part of the year, he returned to form in emphatic fashion, claiming a hat-trick of Masters titles on the clay and leapfrogging Roger Federer as world No. 1 after a fifth French Open crown.

This year it is Nadal who is anxiously looking over his shoulder at the resurgent Novak Djokovic. The Spaniard may be No. 1 but he is not currently the best player in the world.

Twice Nadal has been thwarted by a player in the form of his life. Against anybody else, Nadal would have won two Masters titles in Indian Wells and Miami, but he was outgunned by a player on the crest of a wave of confidence.

That wave will have to crash at some point - and most likely it will come on the clay. Djokovic - unbeaten in 24 matches in 2011 - has been unstoppable this season, but the dynamic has shifted.

While he will still walk onto the court believing he is capable of beating anybody, it is Nadal who has 'home advantage' as the season moves to the clay. Back on the red dirt Nadal is well and truly at home.

Djokovic's decision to withdraw from the Monte Carlo Masters is hardly surprising - it was only a matter of time before his unbeaten streak took its toll on his body. Having won four tournaments on the trot, burnout was almost inevitable.

However, it denies us the chance to see just how much he has progressed - and whether he really has the game to become world No. 1.

Nadal certainly thinks so. The Spaniard, who is bidding for his own bit of history - to become the first player to win the same tournament for a seventh consecutive year - doesn't fancy his chances of repeating last year's unbeaten run on the clay.

"What I did last year, winning Monte-Carlo, Rome, Madrid and Roland-Garros, was historic," Nadal said. "I don't think that I can do it this year. It didn't happen in 50 or 60 years. So I guess I can't do the same two times in a row."

Novak Djokovic is closing in on Nadal's No. 1 status © PA Photos

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"This year Novak has a lot of advantages," Nadal added. "He is in a perfect situation to be No. 1. I'm sure he'll be No. 1 next month."

With 5000 points to defend in the next two months, Nadal has a fight on his hands. He may not be playing with the same confidence as he was a year ago, but he remains the outstanding favourite to defend his title in Monte Carlo, and the confidence will soon come.

With his world ranking on the line, Nadal has got everything to play for - and the switch to the clay could not have come at a better time. We will see in the coming weeks just how well Nadal is playing.

On the hard courts in Indian Wells and Miami it was hard to tell to what extent there was something missing from Nadal's game and how much Djokovic had improved - on the clay it will become clear.

In eight years on the tour, Nadal has lost just 16 matches on clay - an astounding record of nearly 93% ratio from 203 matches played - not even Federer's winning ratio on the grass (87%) comes close.

Nadal is perhaps the greatest player to ever step onto a clay court - at 24 he has already surpassed most of Bjorn Borg's records and with a career Grand Slam to his name as well, he is already guaranteed a place in the history books.

He may be talking down his chances of retaining his No. 1 spot, but players will underestimate Nadal at their peril. His record on clay speaks for itself, and he will not give up his titles, or his No. 1 ranking without a fight.

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