• The Numbers Game

Federer broken by Nadal's intensity

Roger Federer congratulates Rafael Nadal © Getty Images

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In the opening game of the fourth set of the French Open final, Roger Federer was looking at a fantastic opportunity to make a strong surge into the match after having lost the first two sets. Having already taken the third set with a late break of serve, Federer had Rafael Nadal on the ropes at 0-40. As Federer surged ahead with some breathtaking attacking strokes, Nadal seemed to go into his shell, getting more and more defensive, playing short balls and allowing Federer to attack rampantly.

At that pivotal moment, though, Nadal upped his intensity as only he can, and as only he has done in several match-ups between these two great players. He served harder, struck his groundstrokes deeper and with more ferocity, and reeled off five straight points to hold serve. A couple of games later, it was Federer's turn to stare down the 0-40 barrel, but his response was a third-ball error into the net to hand Nadal the break.

Before the start of the fourth set, the break-point conversion stats for both players were exactly the same - 5 out of 12. In the fourth, though, Nadal converted two out of three; Federer failed to convert any of his three. The fourth set was a romp, and Nadal had his sixth French Open title.

Tennis, more than most other sports, is all about winning the big points. The serve is such a key element, especially in men's tennis, that the break of serve becomes pivotal. One of the main factors for Nadal's overwhelming success over the last five years has been his astonishing ability to conquer pressure, and raise his game at the key moments. On the ATP tour so far in 2011, Nadal has converted 47% of his break-point opportunities, which puts him fifth on the chart. Novak Djokovic leads with 48%, while Andy Murray is sixth. Federer, on the other hand, languishes in 46th place with 38%, behind such players as Somdev Devvarman (43%), Victor Hanescu (41%) and Milos Raonic (40%).

Break-point conversion has been an issue that has plagued Federer for a while now, and it hampered him in his epic semi-final too: he finally put it across Djokovic in an epic, but he only converted on 4 out of 25 break opportunities. Against Nadal, though, it has hurt him badly, especially because Nadal doesn't usually succumb to Federer's tactic of playing defensively on break points and waiting for an error.

So here are the numbers: in 25 matches that they have played against each other, Nadal has won more than twice as many as Federer (their head-to-head is 17-8), but he has only had eight more break points than Federer. The conversion rate, though, is significantly different - Nadal has won 22 more of those, and is about 23% better than Federer at converting them. In non grand slam matches there's little to choose, but in the majors it's another story altogether: the difference in break points earned is negligible, but Nadal is about 50% better at converting them than Federer, which is a stat that should worry Federer. Two of Federer's worst conversions were at huge stages: at the 2007 French Open, he went one for 17, while Nadal grabbed four out of 10 and romped to victory. In their epic at Wimbledon in 2008, Federer took just one out of 13 beak points, compared to Nadal's four out of 13.

Add that to the number of times Federer has won more points than Nadal and yet lost the match - it happened in Dubai in 2006, in Rome (2006), and at the Australian Open (2009) - and there's reason to believe that Nadal's looping topspin forehand to Federer's backhand isn't the only reason this is a difficult match-up for the Swiss; at the clutch, Federer has consistently come out a distinct second-best.

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