Three Points
Rebels only as good as their next game
Brett McKay
February 18, 2015
Greg Growden and Sam Bruce look forward to all the weekend action

Super Rugby is underway, and what a start: away teams won fewer than 30% of all matches in 2014, but six of the seven games in round one were won by teams on the road; in 2014, the sixth away win was not registered until midway through found five.

It's fair to say that a few teams will have headed back to the drawing board after last weekend's results, but how will they respond? How many of the upsets will be anomalies by this time next week? How many will be "the start of something"?

In 'Three Points' this year, we'll explore the issues coming out of one round and going into the next.

Both 2014 finalists beaten, but who's panicking?

The Crusaders gave up an unbeaten record at home to Australian sides that stretched back more than a decade last Friday night, against Melbourne Rebels, while the Waratahs handed Western Force the first opening-round win in their 10-year existence. So who got the most sleep on Sunday night: Todd Blackadder or Michael Cheika?

I'll argue the Crusaders have the least to worry about. It's widely discussed and even accepted that they are notoriously slow starters to the season, and there will be a sense of calm still going into round two even having become the Rebels' first overseas victims.

There will be a feeling in the background of the cavalry returning at some point, too, with Kieran Read, Sam Whitelock, Nemani Nadolo and Israel Dagg all to return. Wyatt Crockett and Ryan Crotty played off the bench on Friday night, and Andy Ellis has only just arrived from Japan.

The Crusaders' Dan Carter watches on after a punt down field, Crusaders v Rebels, Christchurch, February 13, 2015
The Crusaders' Dan Carter watches on © Getty Images
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Dan Carter is set to miss the South Island derby with the Highlanders under the roof in Dunedin this Saturday, but his absence only gives the Crusaders yet another opportunity to plan for the future. Colin Slade may switch from fullback to first-five, but there may be a temptation to give Tom Taylor more experience at No.10 with Crotty coming into second-five.

So, yes, the Crusaders will be annoyed to have shelled their first game of the season but it's not like they've never done that before. Plus, with the calibre of players to come back over the coming weeks - regardless of whether Carter is one of them - there will be an overwhelming feeling that the loss to the Rebels isn't too concerning.

The Waratahs, on the other hand, sent out what must be very close to their First XV in Sydney on Sunday afternoon, with 14 internationals and all bar skipper David Dennis having played in the championship win in August last year.

There's certainly much improvement to be found - some of the skill errors would've earned a spray from a subbies coach never mind Cheika - but it's not like they're down on personnel.

While the Crusaders will get a bounce from the returning players, the Waratahs must find their form within. And against a Rebels side with their tails up, an immediate return to the winner's circle is far from certain.

As Andy Withers and I discussed on the Scrum5 podcast this week, the Rebels contained a Crusaders back-row of Richie McCaw, Matt Todd, and Luke Whitelock quite comfortably, and defensively shut down a 10-12-15 combination that have all worn the black jersey.

The Waratahs' back-row, meanwhile, battled to compete with the willing Force loosies; and their midfield was shut down yet again by an effective rush defence. How they rectify those areas will be one of the major areas of focus on Friday night in Melbourne.

Pop quiz: All Blacks-boosted Chiefs or the ruthless, clinical Brumbies?

Anyone in the ESPNscrum Super Stars tipping league on Footytips.com.au will attest that I'm in no position to hand out tipping advice, but the rematch of the 2013 final shapes as the match of round two.

The Brumbies defence against Queensland Reds on Friday night had all the hallmarks of their new defence coach, and former league convert and 2001 Super 12 championship flanker, Peter Ryan. The Brumbies were up in the face of the Reds runners quickly; and when they got there, they hit hard. The Reds didn't offer a lot in attack, and managed only two clean breaks and three offloads.

The Chiefs didn't necessarily play their usual amount of rugby, either, with their attacking methods essentially built around following Sonny Bill Williams wherever he went and waiting for offloads. And fair enough, too; the Chiefs broke the Blues' defence on a dozen occasions and got a staggering 19 offloads away. Williams was credited with three of those, though most of his 14 passes had the same effect. It was quite the return to rugby from the dual international.

Sonny Bill Williams wasted little time settling back into Super Rugby © Getty Images
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So with the Chiefs' All Blacks contingent of Aaron Cruden, Liam Messam and Brodie Retallick set to the return, and the Brumbies confirming that David Pocock won't be making the hop over the ditch, just how do you pick between the two teams?

Well, like I said, I'm hardly in any position to tell you. What price the draw?

Rebels and Force wins as good a start to the Australian conference as any

Much has been made of the Reds' and Waratahs' losses last weekend, but Australian rugby supporters should be rapt to see the Brumbies, Rebels, and Force in the top six.

Three teams that didn't exist two decades ago, all winning, can only be a good thing for the game in this country - and for the depth of professional players their existence builds. If the traditional strongholds of New South Wales and Queensland can find form, then there will be much reason for optimism.

The Force will fancy their chances against the Reds in Brisbane on Saturday night; they haven't lost to Queensland home or away in the past five outings, and they need to get used to the favourites tag if they're to remain at the pointy end.

The Rebels, though, are, in a phrase I like to re-work, only as good as their next game. The thing about building consistency is that you've got to do it all the time; that's why it's called consistency. Anything less than a win in Melbourne this week will undermine all their good work in Christchurch last week.

Mike Harris played a key role in the Rebels' shock win over the Crusaders © Getty Images
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