Super Rugby
Waratahs that bad or Force just too good?
Richard Kelly
February 19, 2015
Super Rugby Preview: Round 2

It was a weekend of shocks in round one of Super Rugby and none more-so than in Sydney where the all-conquering side of last year, NSW Waratahs, were humbled by the Force. The Perth side became the first team to score four tries on the Tahs' home patch since June 2012 when the Hurricanes hit form, and were more than worthy of their 12-point victory - just their fourth win in 14 meetings with the boys in blue.

There has been somewhat of a rally cry from within the Waratahs camp since that defeat as they prepare to face Melbourne Rebels in round two. But a slow start shouldn't see the alarm bells raised just yet, even if they do become the first NSW side to lose two from two at the start of the season.

And the men from Western Australia deserve plenty of credit for the way in which they executed their game plan, and made the most of their opportunities in Sydney. The criticism of the Waratahs, meanwhile, is perhaps a little unjust when analysed more closely and while they even failed to register a bonus-point; there were at least a few positives for Michael Cheika to take from the defeat.

The bad news

The hosts managed just four clean breaks in the match, less than half their 2014 average (9.5). This was despite tallying 20 defenders beaten, which was just shy of their average from last year (21.3). Turning half chances into clean breaks (and subsequently points) is arguably more crucial in Super Rugby than in any other rugby competition in the world, and this prevented the hosts from competing on Sunday's scoreboard.

An inability to convert defenders-beaten into breaks could be blamed on a number of reasons, but their offloading and passing figures were remarkably similar to those they produced last year; so it probably wasn't down to a lack of support play and rustiness. A higher error rate, despite spending almost a minute (which is a more significant length of time than it sounds) less in possession than in 2014 was also a factor.

Perhaps the biggest concern for the Waratahs was their inability to force a solitary turnover in the 80 minutes, which was seven fewer than their opponents and the defending champions' 2014 average. One would expect the Waratahs to be far more aggressive at the tackle on Friday night.

TeamWaratahs vs ForceWaratahs 2014 average
Carries113132.7
Metres368521.1
Metres / Carry3.33.9
Clean Breaks49.5
Defenders Beaten2021.3
Offloads1214.3
Passes170165.3
Kicks from Hand1916.5
Tackles9995.2
Missed Tackles914.6
Tackling Success %92%87%
Penalties Conceded1012.4
Turnovers Conceded1815.4
Turnovers Won17.9
Lineout Success %100%82%
Lineout Steals41.1
Scrum Success %83%85%
Scrum Steals30.4
Rucks Won7283.6
Rucks Lost64.3
Ruck Success %92%95%
Time in Possession15:3316:31

The good news

The Tahs' turned in largely similar numbers in this match as they did last term. Their average metres-gained did not really suffer when taking into account the lack of clean breaks, while their tackling was generally sound, too. The set-piece was the best we've seen from the Waratahs, perhaps ever, which will give them a wonderful platform to work from when the backline finds its feet.

The other positive for the Waratahs' is the fact that Sunday's win was among the Force's best, ever. Their 65/66 ruck wins was nothing short of remarkable while they conceded just 10 turnovers overall - eight fewer than the hosts - which shows how well they executed. Four offloads and 86 passes show how tight and structured their approach to this game was and it proved to be the perfect tactic as they frustrated Cheika's side. Make no mistake; this was great a Force win rather than a Waratahs implosion.

Welcome to The Stockade

Looking ahead to this week, one would expect the game to be a little more open compared to what took place in Sydney last Sunday. The Rebels will be high on confidence following their stunning victory over the Crusaders; a match where they registered 17 defenders beaten as well as 60 per cent of the possession.

The Rebels may well adopt a few of the Force's strategies at AAMI Park though - the pick-and-go in particular - and if the Waratahs are flat, the underdogs could well go two from two against the 2014 finalists.


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© Opta Stats for ESPN Sports Media Ltd.

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