• UFC 133

The legend Tito Ortiz is back... but for how long?

August 6, 2011

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Once reigned an animal so dominant at 205lbs that he set a UFC landmark yet to be eclipsed. Now Tito Ortiz, the UFC's longest reigning former light-heavyweight champion, is aiming to get back to the top. Can the legendary trash-talker beat Rashad Evans?

All fighters hit their targets at the UFC 133 weigh-in, so where will the main fights be won or lost?

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Rashad Evans v Tito Ortiz

Where the fight could be won or lost: Before completely writing off Tito Ortiz, at least consider his advantages. Rashad Evans is coming off by far the longest layoff of his career. He's switched camps, an emotional switch at that. He's been staggered in his past three fights, suggesting his chin might be his weakest attribute. Ortiz is a veteran with killer instinct, as well as the intelligence not to gas out if the finish isn't there.

Now, be that as it may, Evans holds advantages in speed and strength. Technically speaking, he should be the superior striker. His head movement and footwork trump that of Ortiz, and he has also implemented his wrestling more since losing to Lyoto Machida. It makes him harder to prepare for and more difficult to figure out.

The pick: Rashad Evans - Unanimous decision

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Vitor Belfort v Yoshihiro Akiyama

Where the fight could be won or lost: If Yoshihiro Akiyama chooses to stand with Vitor Belfort as he did against Michael Bisping and, for the most part, Chris Leben, he's opening the door for his third straight loss. His hand speed doesn't match Belfort's. He has a tendency to stand stationery in front of his opponents at times and he's not a terrific counter puncher. He's got a phenomenal chin. But a good chin won't knock anyone out.

Akiyama needs to slow things down whenever possible. Belfort is no slouch on the ground, but the more Akiyama can get him on his back, the better. A submission isn't likely - Belfort's been submitted just once in his career - but a grinding-type decision is. Problem is, that's not the type of fighter he is.

The pick: Vitor Belfort - TKO

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Rory MacDonald v Mike Pyle

Where the fight could be won or lost: Mike Pyle is in a groove. He's finding his way into dominant positions and once he's there, he absolutely does not give them up. No knockout power to speak of - his last KO was in 2006 - but that doesn't suggest he's not technical with his hands. His defense is strong and he's capable of scoring points on his feet.

Rory MacDonald's potential is through the roof. He's deceptively strong and his takedown defense is one of the strongest aspects of his game. He mixes his strikes up very well, making him unorthodox in his own way. We've seen that in the frustration written on past opponents' faces. He lacks experience, but makes up for it with his composure and he's an intelligent fighter.

The pick: Rory MacDonald - Split decision

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Alexander Gustafsson v Matt Hamill

Where the fight could be won or lost: Alexander Gustafsson is raw, but the important thing with a fighter like that is whether he visibly improves between each fight and he has. His striking isn't necessarily loaded with diversity, but he's accurate and possesses a game changer in the right hand. From what we've seen, he's not an easy takedown. He's got decent balance and good upper body strength.

Hamill is coming off arguably the worst performance of his career at UFC 130. He's got more tools than Gustafsson does, but athletically I think he's at a disadvantage. Gustafsson works at a frantic pace. The first eight minutes of this fight are crucial for Hamill. If it goes deep, the advantages will start to swing in his favour.

The pick: Alexander Gustafsson - Unanimous decision

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Johny Hendricks v Mike Pierce

Where the fight could be won or lost: Not a lot of attention is being given to two fighters who are a combined 19-2 in their past 21 fights. Quietly, either one of these two are capable of making runs at a title because they're nightmarish matchups to deal with. Extremely durable. Neither has ever been finished. Powerful wrestlers with good technique and knockout power in their hands.

This is a matchup to see which is the better version of relatively the same guy. Pierce is more consistent. He approaches fights with a stoic confidence. Hendricks is more of a wild card. He fought awful in his loss to Rick Story, but still made the fight difficult to score. Slight strength advantage goes to Pierce. Dead even on punching power and very little interest in submissions by either.

The pick: Mike Pierce - Unanimous decision

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