• UFC 140

Jon Jones the Invincible? Enter the Dragon...

December 9, 2011

"He's unbeatable." "You can't get near him." "He'll be champion for a long time."

All the above was once said of Lyoto Machida, but now it is reigning UFC light-heavyweight champion Jon Jones who seems invincible. What was once the era of Machida is now the era of Bones Jones, but can the Dragon blow the 205lb terrain wide open?

Below ESPN breaks down the three main fights on the card, providing predictions for how the night will unravel.

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Jon Jones v Lyoto Machida

Where the fight could be won or lost: This is a unique fight in that the styles of each guy will play into the other. Jon Jones is a hyper-offensive fighter. Lyoto Machida is the opposite-- a true counter-style fighter. The advantage in this scenario likely goes to Jones. Machida is elusive, but he becomes so by leaning back and moving his head. Jones has significant advantages in reach and speed, plus he throws combinations, not single punches. All of that is going to make it difficult for Machida to counter effectively. And even though he will be the first southpaw Jones has fought in UFC, that's not as a huge factor.

Machida has underrated strength in the clinch, but Jones is capable of getting him down if that's the gameplan. Personally, Machida needs to turn the tables on Jones by pressuring him at the start of the fight. Think back to all of Jones' fights: He comes out aggressive. What happens if someone does that to him? But the chance of that happening is right around zero. Machida is known for being conservative, especially at the beginning of a fight, and you just don't see that style being effective against Jones.

The pick: Jon Jones - TKO

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Frank Mir v Minotauro Nogueira

Where the fight could be won or lost: Somehow, Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira looked healthier in his last fight than he had in years. His jab was quicker, he moved well and his reaction time seemed much better. That said, he's facing an uphill battle against Frank Mir, athletically. Mir is explosive. He's not the brute strength-type, like a Brock Lesnar or Shane Carwin, but he generates power using speed and angles. Both men are durable, but you get a sense Mir can hurt Nogueira on the feet more than vice versa.

Nogueira is, of course, a threat on the ground but a submission win over Mir is hard to see. Not only is Mir a black belt, his wrestling advantage makes you think he'll be able to maintain good position throughout the fight. Staph infection or not for Nogueira, you just don't see this one being much different than when the two fought in 2008. Nogueira turned back the clock in Brazil, but his best years are behind him. He'll have to stand with Mir, because he won't be able to get him down. Mir is solid on his feet defensively and over time, he starts to pick Nogueira apart.

The pick: Frank Mir - KO

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Tito Ortiz v Minotoro Nogueira

Where the fight could be won or lost: The opening minutes of this fight will be huge. If Tito Ortiz can get Antonio Rogerio Nogueira down early and zap some of his gas tank, it will help him out big time later in the fight. Neither one is known for tremendous cardio, but there is more concern about Ortiz gassing than Nogueira. Ortiz has faded late in many of his recent fights and he even looked flat as early as the first round against Rashad Evans. Both are tough to finish, so scoring points and finishing rounds strong will be in both game plans.

Ortiz won't be overwhelmed as long as he stays fresh. He needs a strong start. If he digs a hole early, climbing out will be difficult. That said, Nogueira's coming off two consecutive losses - three if you count the controversial decision to Jason Brilz. Ortiz is finally healthy (the healthiest he's been in the past few years, at least), so Ortiz should make a fight out of this and take it on points.

The pick: Tito Ortiz - Unanimous decision

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