• UFC 118

Penn and Couture put legacies on the line

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Frankie Edgar v BJ Penn
When BJ Penn fought Frankie Edgar at UFC 112, nobody gave Edgar a prayer. Nobody saw him taking Penn to the mat, nobody saw him going five rounds, and certainly nobody invisaged him outstriking the champion. Four months on, having ticked all three of those boxes, Edgar now holds the UFC gold, but it has barely registered with the bookies. BJ Penn is the favourite, and Edgar has merely been promoted from the role of 'no-hoper' to 'minor blip in Penn's career'.

Can lightening strike twice? A packed audience at Boston is waiting to find out.

Four months ago this website wrote that Penn possessed the superior jiu-jitsu skills, the better footwork, the greater hand speed, and the more deadly ability to finish a fight. Ahead of UFC 118 it is difficult to argue any of that is less true. However, the crucial question is: Does he have the superior gameplan, and does he possess the necessary determination?

Edgar has age and, in all likelihood, cardio weighing in his favour. The 28-year-old has never been stopped, he has the ability to stay nimble on his feet, and he will no doubt come to Boston determined to portray himself as the more active fighter in the eyes of the judges. Utilising fakes, kicks, strikes and the occasional takedown, Edgar will look to keep Penn unsteady on his feet for five rounds. Therein lies the danger. Edgar's strikes won't be fight-stoppers, meaning everytime he commits he must get in and out before Penn unloads a right hand.

If reports are to be believed, Penn was battling illness ahead of the first meeting with Edgar. This time he will be expected to finish the fight in emphatic fashion - most likely via his favoured rear naked choke. The Prodigy hates being labelled a legend, stating: "When you hear people say you're the greatest lightweight of all time, it's bull****. It's not real. It's fake." On Saturday those words will carry more meaning than ever if Penn fails to regain his lightweight title.

Randy Couture is adamant his chin hasn't deserted him © UFC

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Randy Couture v James Toney
When James Toney steps into foreign territory, looks around the eight-sided cage, and awaits the entrance of Randy Couture - the UFC's most celebrated fighter, the anticipation will be palpable. After all the talk about boxers being far better fighters than mixed martial artists, after all the threats to knock out Dana White, Toney finally gets the chance to back up the big talk.

All of the tactical breakdown has already been done several times over. If Couture thinks he can stand with a former three-time IBF champion boxer who has beaten Evander Holyfield, he is likely to wake up the next morning to renewed questions about his rapidly degenerating chin. If Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira can floor you, James Toney certainly can. But if Toney believes he can box in his usual style, without making the footwork adjustments necessary to see off takedowns, he too is going to have a very short night.

However, the most intriguing moments will come at close quarters. Rashad Evans believes Couture would be making a fatal mistake by clinching against the cage, which would give Toney the chance to fire off a potentially fight-ending uppercut in the style of Shane Carwin v Frank Mir. Toney also claims he can knock Couture out whilst his back is on the mat. It's unlikely, but it's not unthinkable.

Fighting under Couture's rules, it seems unimaginable that Toney will be able to fend off an Olympic level Greco-Roman wrestler, and therefore Dana White will probably get his wish for Couture to 'squash Toney's head'. However, as huge as Couture's grappling advantage is, Toney holds just as great a weapon when both men are standing. Undoubtedly the smart money is on the former five-time UFC champion, but until Toney's back hits the deck there is a legendary boxer wearing four-ounce gloves just waiting to crack a withering jaw.

Kenny Florian v Gray Maynard
BJ Penn and Frankie Edgar both claim they will not be watching when Kenny Florian and Gray Maynard go toe-to-toe in the third main fight of the night, but if they were honest it is likely both men would be happier to see Florian triumph in the battle for No. 1 contender status in the lightweight division.

Maynard lives up to his nickname more accurately than pretty much any other fighter. He is a bully, and he has that Xtreme Couture wrestling, grinding style that breaks the will of almost any opponent he faces. An undefeated MMA record boasting nine victories, seven by decision, shows how difficult Maynard is to beat, and he already holds a victory over Edgar to his name. And given Penn's devastating loss to Georges St-Pierre at UFC 94, Maynard is about the only man in the 155lb division who has the potential to implement a similar gameplan.

Florian has already lost to Penn, badly, but in his defence "Ken-Flo" gets better every time he fights. The way he took apart Takanori Gomi is only now getting the credit it deserved following Gomi's knockout of Tyson Griffin, and Florian will expect to win the fight against Maynard if he can keep it standing. Ken-Flo's only two losses in five years have come in title fights, and he has seen off the threats of wrestlers such as Clay Guida and Joe Stevenson, but Maynard might just prove too much of a spoiler for Florian this weekend.

Demian Maia regrets fighting on the back foot against Anderson Silva © UFC

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Demian Maia v Mario Miranda
A fight with potential for upset of the night (unless James Toney wins), Mario Miranda has all the tools to put Demian Maia's UFC career right on the precipice this weekend. Once regarded as the most lethal submissions man in the UFC, Maia has undergone a severe examination of his striking game over recent months, with Nate Marquardt knocking him off his feet and Anderson Silva more-or-less sitting on his - such was the ease of the victory - as he chose to embarrass the Sao Paulo southpaw.

Now Maia, who so easily submitted Chael Sonnen back at UFC 95, has to prove that his hand-work with Wanderlei Silva is paying dividends. Miranda is a BJJ black belt with enough Greco-Roman know-how to keep the fight standing. And on his feet he has a severe reach advantage over Maia, not to mention the Muay Thai power that has delivered six KOs in 12 victories. He will also have a certain Anderson Silva in his corner.

Maia's ability to shoot for a takedown isn't great, so he may need to do his best work off his back on Saturday, maybe even by pulling guard. Miranda will aim to stay standing at all times, knowing that he is in danger even when working out of Maia's guard. A recent defeat to Gerald Harris does not tell the entire story after Miranda knocked Harris down earlier in the fight, and he has all the necessary tools to leave Maia staring at a 1-3 record from his last four fights.

Nate Diaz's hands are improving all the time © Getty Images

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Nate Diaz v Marcus Davis
The lowdown on Nate Diaz has already been outlined in the build-up to UFC 118, by the Stockton fighter's opponent Marcus Davis. Diaz is stepping up to welterweight (after his initial welterweight debut against Rory Markham was deemed a middleweight fight), and with wins over Kurt Pellegrino, Melvin Guillard and Josh Neer to his name, he arrives with a strong CV.

"He's a tough guy, he's very crafty," said Davis. "Guys think they've got the best of him and he ends up catching them in submissions. He's good at being tall, using his reach. He's got a good lead right hand he paws out to measure distance and keep the guy there. He's got a good right shovel hook over the top that he works really well to set up his left hand when he needs to. He's got wrestling, then he's sick on his back, his jiu-jitsu is great."

Losses to Clay Guida, Gray Maynard and Joe Stevenson testify to the fact that Diaz still has problems against the world's best wrestlers, but that won't be an issue against knockout artist Davis. The 37-year-old veteran bounced back from losses to Dan Hardy and Ben Saunders (the first KO defeat of his career) with a vicious stoppage of Jonathan Goulet, and he will fancy his chances if Diaz chooses to exchange blows in Boston. But if it hits the mat Davis, despite being well-versed, would do well to deny Diaz a submission over three rounds of action.

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