Rugby World Cup
Go for goal or kick for the corner and go for a drive? Craig Dowd answers the question
Craig Dowd
September 29, 2015
Defeat has focused our minds - Youngs

How spectacular to wake up on a Sunday morning and get to watch some sensational action like that offered up by Wales and England.; it was certainly one of the best rugby games I have watched, and Wales just dug deep and hung in there; they fought hard and were not put off by the injuries they suffered.

The way they started running the ball back at England, and started using the width through George North from the kick-offs in the second half was effective, and they made some really good breaks and good yardage.

I remember thinking when England turned down the shot and tried to go for the line with a kick to the corner, "take the shot, take the shot, it's the World Cup". It is about getting through to the play-offs, and getting out of the pool, and I think Chris Robshaw would think differently if he were given that opportunity again.

I've been doing a little bit of investigation, so asked rugby statistics guru Paul Neazor to check the percentages in terms of success from employing the kick to the corner as the basis for scoring tries from a lineout drive. And the numbers are really surprising: the success rate is only around 15-20%, and you have to take into account several factors.

The hooker has to throw it in straight, which isn't guaranteed, and you have to get the ball - which isn't guaranteed. Of the 1277 set lineouts this year (ignoring quick throws in New Zealand domestic competition), the side throwing in has won 1078 or 84.42%. And then if you get the ball, it is a case of what do you do with it. Nine times out of 10, it turns into pick-and-go anyway and there is every chance for a knock-on. The success rate is not that high so maybe you take your points when they are on offer.

Wales celebrating
Wales celebrating© David Rogers/Getty Images

It's not just that game.

I thought the lineout defence from Wales was among the best defences that any team has shown. I have always said rugby and defence is about attitude and the whole team being in synch with each other and knowing what they are going to do; as soon as I saw them herd them over the sideline I thought 'that's game over'. England blew their opportunity. Mind you, England made it easy for them by throwing the ball to the front of the lineout. That was less distance for Wales to travel to push the ball out.

There is a real message here for coaches and players about how the real success of kicking for the corner and going for the drive. Coaches need to do their research - and most of them are statisticians or have access to statistics - and do their homework about how successful that option really is.

It's a bit different when you are 30-40m out because it can get you closer to the goal line, but when you are faced with that situation - draw or lose - you need to know when you roll the dice that you have a 10% chance of winning the game through a lineout drive and maybe a 75% chance of drawing it through a successful penalty kick.

It just shows how fickle the game can be, especially for the coaches.

Chris Robshaw
Chris Robshaw© Shaun Botterill/Getty Images

I know Wales coach Warren Gatland really well. I spent a long time in London playing under him at Wasps and the whole management team. I played with Rob Howley and Shaun Edwards, and even their video analysis guy, Rhys Long, I know their whole management team. They are all great guys.

People ask me who is the best coach I ever had, and Warren is right up there with all the All Blacks coaches. I can see the class of the man has come through, and it was great to see the emotion after the game just knowing that had Wales lost that game, and had faced not qualifying out of the pool, he was probably going to see someone in that management group face the axe. That was probably why the weight of emotion was so evident, because jobs had been saved.

With the fickleness of coaching, the weight has now been lifted to the other camp. Stuart Lancaster now feels the weight and pressure of his nation, saying, 'What are you going to do for us?'

© Glyn Kirk/AFP/Getty Images

People asked me, in the lead-up to the Cup, why this pool was called the pool of death? It should be quite obvious now. I don't think so many people expected Wales to do what they did at the weekend, and the result has really turned everything on its head.

I've always felt that England have some of the best set-piece coaching in the game, and they way they prepare is very stringent. And the English are very stringent in their approach to all sports. The problem with that, however, is that it takes away the flair. And it was flair that Wales showed with their temporary wing knowing he didn't have the wheels and opting to put in a centre-kick - which is such an effective tactic. Everyone chases the sideline and the centre-kick is a great option. And that was a fantastic try. Wales had got to the stage in the game where they had to change what they were doing and play, and throw the ball around to use the width.

© David Rogers/Getty Images

Now we are faced with a nail-biting scenario between England and Australia. And that could turn everything around again. The weight has fallen on England's shoulders, but one decent hit-out from them throws the whole pool wide open again and it is going to come down to Australia v Wales - which is probably what most pundits always thought was going to happen anyway.

In New Zealand's pool, it has been good to see the likes of Namibia throwing everything at the All Blacks in their one chance to play them. They left nothing in the tank, and gave New Zealand a good contest.

There is every likelihood that Georgia will provide the forward pack with a good workout this weekend also. When you compare that to the ease with which New Zealand dealt with Italy, Portugal and Romania in 2007, the game is a lot healthier; and the Argentina game was a lot tougher than Scotland proved when playing their second team against the All Blacks in 2007.

It will be interesting to see how some of the guys go, especially Waisake Naholo, I still feel he could be a star of this Cup.

I bite my tongue when I see people giving gyp to the South Africans and now giving gyp to England. There's a thing called karma and I'm begging the New Zealand public to shut up, keep quiet and just go about their business because it can turn 180 degrees very quickly as we know happened in 2007.

That's just the nature of this competition. We haven't got to the finals stages yet so it's a case of keeping your powder dry and wait until October 26.

© ESPN Sports Media Ltd.

Live Sports

Communication error please reload the page.