Rugby World Cup
Wallabies, Springboks, All Blacks and Pumas to dominate finals, Greg Growden writes
Greg Growden
October 5, 2015

Will England's exit have an impact on the World Cup?

As if England's early World Cup demise is not enough of a northern embarrassment, the pain may soon spread to the other Home Nations as a southern hemisphere Rugby Championship finale to this tournament looms.

A South Africa-New Zealand semi-final on October 24, followed by an Argentina-Australia semi-final the following day is now looking highly likely, as the frailties of the northern hemisphere contingent start to be exposed.

England are now mere spectators - victims of dreadful selections and poor leadership.

Scotland are spirited scrappers, but lack the finishers to go too far.

Wales are a mighty, fearless unit, but they are so war scarred and short of soldiers that lack of numbers should eventually wear them down.

Ireland have picked the wrong time to suddenly show they have serious inadequacies, which are bound to be exposed at finals time.

France are the north's best hope; as always the masters of unpredictability, form slumps and revivals. It all depends on how they feel on the day. Follow them at your own peril.

Until the weekend, Ireland had appeared to have a considerable chance of doing something in this tournament. We kept hearing about how they are so well coached, are the tightest of teams, and know how to adapt. So a venture to London's Olympic Stadium on Sunday was assumed to be a worthwhile venture because if Ireland could produce something of value against Italy then it would be time to start pushing them as the 'smokeys', the value bet of the tournament.

The trip was fine - none of the transport problems that have turned treks to and from Millennium Stadium and Twickenham into nightmarish experiences - and the facilities at the ground were first rate. But the match was not up to the same standard; in the end, it was one long hangover after the froth and bubble of Australia's defeat of England the previous night.

Conor Murray of Ireland
Conor Murray of Ireland© Shaun Botterill/Getty Images

Twickenham was a spectacle, with Australia producing easily the best performance of the tournament so far, mixing their play with breakdown brutality and the occasional touch of ballet. It was an invigorating, memorable occasion.

Then back to reality.

Ireland-Italy was a dirge. Italy tried to bash them. Ireland opted for minimalist football, kicking to the corners, relying on their No.10 Jonny Sexton to keep Italy well away from their try line. When the Irish attacked, momentum was rarely achieved as they often fumbled and bumbled. There didn't seem to be much of a plan. It was all so underwhelming. Even the Italian team management seemed surprised that Ireland "did not want to take risks".

At the end of that tedious affair, the many Irish fans in the stands were trying to console themselves by explaining that their coach, Joe Schmidt, clearly did not want to give France, whom they play in Cardiff on Sunday to determine the Pool D pecking order, any clues on what they are actually up to.

Plan A used against Italy was clearly about survival, and guaranteeing a semi-final berth. Plan B is apparently the real Ireland game plan, with a touch more inventiveness and style.

Well let's hope there is a Plan B, because Ireland are no hope of beating France if they stick with Plan A next weekend.

France are similar to Italy in boasting a highly physical approach, but they also offer far more attacking inventiveness. A stodgy Italian attack often broke through, especially out wide; France should instead finish off to end up on top of their pool.

Will Genia of Australia fires a pass
Will Genia of Australia fires a pass© Shaun Botterill/Getty Images

New Zealand, Argentina, South Africa and Australia have the edge over the north because they are more accustomed through the Rugby Championship to playing tough, hard matches against formidable opponents one after the other with the extra burden of long travel. That experience is crucial at World Cup finals time.

That said, apart from the Wallabies' Twickenham effort, the Rugby Championship contingent admittedly haven't exactly been startling.

© Michael Steele/Getty Images

New Zealand have been spluttering but don't need to do anything until quarterfinals time, when they should confront Ireland.

South Africa, after the humiliation of losing to Japan, are continuing with their usual up-front physical bully-boy game, which will be good enough for them to finish off on top of their pool, and with it a quarterfinal against Wales.

© Michael Steele/Getty Images

Argentina are peaking at the right time, possessing the pack and good attacking finishers to be a finals threat.

As long as Australia, the master of slackening right off after monumental wins, don't underestimate Wales on Saturday, they should finish on top of Pool A, giving them a far easier route through the finals. They will probably face Scotland in the quarters and Argentina in the semifinals.

And the winners. Two weeks in, my view has not changed. Australia to play New Zealand at Twickenham on October 31 for glory.

© ESPN Sports Media Ltd.

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