• Australian Grand Prix preview

Here we go again

Here we go again. It seems not too long ago that Lewis Hamilton crossed the line in Abu Dhabi claimed to win the world championship last November. Some things have changed since then, while a lot has stayed the same. Former multiple world champions Fernando Alonso and Sebastian Vettel start the year in pastures new but it still looks like the same team will be at the head of the pack come lights out. Despite that there is a genuine excitement; enough unanswered questions remain from winter testing to keep people guessing as we arrive in Melbourne.

In form

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There is no such thing as a winter championship, but if there was Mercedes would have won it hands down. Coming into the new season after a dominant 2014 campaign it was always going to be the team to beat this year. Pre-season suggests Mercedes has retained a sizeable gap over the rest of the field and anything less than a front row lock out in Melbourne should be viewed as a disappointment. However, unlike last year, its rivals have the chance to develop their engines in-season, giving us an intriguing narrative as the season goes on. Catching Mercedes is going to be top of the agenda for every team this year and it will be fascinating to see how close the chasing pack is this weekend.

Out of form

McLaren had a terrible winter, completing just 380 laps as it experienced problems left, right and centre with its new Honda power unit. It was never going to be a smooth start but McLaren's woes were magnified by the relatively issue-free running of every other team on the grid. Add into the mix the fact Fernando Alonso is sitting out the race as he recovers from concussion suffered in a testing crash in Spain and McLaren goes into the season opener with its back against the ropes. Eric Boullier said it is unlikely the team will hit its best until the first European race in May so McLaren could be in for a painful opening weekend in Australia.

Ones to watch

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Ferrari stole the headlines in the opening two tests before Mercedes revealed its true hand. Testing is never an accurate gauge of much because there are so many unknowns but a lot can be gained from listening to the drivers. Kimi Raikkonen, who struggled hugely with the unpredictable F14-T, seems much happier with the team's 2015 challenger. Add into the mix the arrival of Sebastian Vettel and Ferrari's 2015 has added interest.

Testing suggested Ferrari has made the most progress over the winter relative to the teams around it. It also struggled with an uncompetitive power unit last season but feedback from both Ferrari and customer outfit Sauber suggested a step forward has also been made on this front. Ferrari is unlikely to be challenging Mercedes for outright wins - the real point of interest will be how close the Italian outfit is to challenging Williams at the front of the chasing pack.

Talking points

F1's very own Lazarus

Manor Marussia looked dead and buried at one point last year. The team went into administration in October and missed the final three races of the season, while they had to watch rivals Caterham recover from a similar fall and return for the final race thanks to crowd-funding. But the senior figures never gave up hope of saving the team which finished ninth last season and, after securing new investment from Stephen Fitzpatrick, the founder of Ovo Energy, it seemed a return could happen. The Strategy Group voted against Manor Marussia's return with a 2014 car but that did little to dent its return - the team will bring an adapted version of last year's car and a 2014-spec Ferrari engine to the first race. The team will is likely to be a long way off the pace but the fact it is there at all is a triumph which should be praised at a time when teams are struggling to make ends meet in Formula One.

No Fernando

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There has been plenty written about Fernando Alonso's accident in Spain. The internet and conspiracy theories are a match made in heaven and all sorts of reports about what caused his crash have circulated Twitter in the weeks since. There is no reason to doubt McLaren's official version of events and the verdict of doctors. Alonso is missing the race for a medically sound reason. The absence of the Spaniard is hardly an ideal start for him or McLaren since his shock return to the team last year, especially as it encounters problems with the Honda power unit. It is ironic that after so much deliberation at McLaren when choosing between the pair last season that Jenson Button and Kevin Magnussen will kick off its 2015 campaign anyway. The latter does so with just 39 laps under his belt but it is a wonderful opportunity for the Dane to showcase his talent as he searches for a drive away from Formula One. McLaren knows it will not be fully competitive until the European rounds so these early races, especially Melbourne, are a chance for the team to do the work it could not over the winter.

Three into two doesn't fit Some of the F1 media were camped out at the Victoria Supreme Court on the Thursday before the race instead of the press centre. Although it's not unusual for contracts to be fought over in F1 and often broken, it is unusual for a driver to demand he races at a team that clearly does not want him in the car. Legally Giedo van der Garde has a very solid case which he is entitled to bring, but while he may get himself a drive this weekend, it is likely he will damage his chances of a long-term future in F1. As has been pointed out already, if Sauber had not taken on Marcus Ericsson and Felipe Nasr and the money they could bring, the team may not have survived the winter and van der Garde would have no one to demand a drive from.

Betting

Lewis Hamilton is the bookies favourite to win the race at 10/11. Behind the Mercedes pair, bookies think Valtteri Bottas (11/1) and new Ferrari signing Sebastian Vettel (12/1) are the next best bets. Jenson Button is 11/1 to grab an unlikely podium for McLaren, while Manor Marussia is 4/1 as the first retirement of the race.

Facts and figures

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• Of the current grid, Jenson Button has the most race wins at Albert Park - he stood on the top step in 2009, 2010 and 2012. Michael Schumacher holds the record with four wins.
• Before this weekend, the first and most recent winner of a world championship Australian Grand Prix come from the same family. Keke Rosberg won in Adelaide in 1985 while his son Nico won in Melbourne last year.
• Albert Park is a temporary street circuit constructed in around six weeks before the grand prix weekend.
• The race start has been pushed forward an hour as a response to the FIA's investigation into Jules Bianchi's crash in Suzuka. This race used to start at 1700 local time to accommodate European audiences, with the low evening sun causing visibility problems for drivers later in the race.

Weather

There could well be a twist in the opening weekend of the 2014 season - rain. The forecasted rain is for the morning, meaning it may have little impact on the late afternoon start, but the unpredictability is there. A helping hand from the elements may be the only chance for the chasing pack to dethrone Mercedes this weekend.

ESPN Prediction

There is little reason to think Melbourne will be anything other than another Mercedes show of force. Lewis Hamilton ended the 2014 season in the form of his life and we think he'll pick up where he left off when the lights go out on the new campaign.

Nate is assistant editor of ESPNF1

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