• Abu Dhabi Grand Prix preview

Will Vettel do the right thing?

November 11, 2010

After 3410 miles of racing, Formula One has arrived at the final grand prix of the season with less than 25 points separating the top four. Realistically Lewis Hamilton is out of the running, but Fernando Alonso, Mark Webber and Sebastian Vettel are still very much in the chase. Red Bull has the advantage over a single lap and has done all year, but that hasn't stopped Alonso and Ferrari pulling off five victories at 18 attempts. Add to that a healthy dose of intra-team rivalry at Red Bull and you have the recipe for one of the best season finales in years.

On form

Red Bull's dilemma continues as Sebastian Vettel remains the man to beat on track but Mark Webber, in his own words, inconveniently has more championship points. All the evidence suggests Vettel will again be quicker than Webber in Abu Dhabi, although he has promised to do what's best for the team, which could mean ceding position to his team-mate. But if he does so, the champagne on the podium will taste incredibly bitter as he thinks back to his seven pole position that didn't result in wins, the three 1-2 victories where he led Webber and, not least, that very costly accident in Turkey.

Out of form

Among the top three teams, Felipe Massa is the driver who has had by far the most disappointing season. It was always going to be tough coming back from his accident to face Fernando Alonso, but the problem has also been a technical one as he has struggled to retain heat in the tyres. In the last few rounds he also appears to have lost some motivation but, then again, that's hardly surprising after his experience in Germany.

One to watch

Michael Schumacher's performances have been steadily improving since the Japanese Grand Prix, to the point that he outscored team-mate Nico Rosberg and on-track-rival Robert Kubica combined over the last three races. A strong finish to the season will be a huge boost to take into winter testing, but that elusive podium is still unlikely.

Talking points

Red Bull's strategy
There are plenty of outcomes that will secure Red Bull the drivers' title, but the one that puts the most control in the team's hands is if Mark Webber finishes ahead of Sebastian Vettel. Team owner Dietrich Mateschitz has said he would sooner lose the title altogether than force his drivers to obey orders, but that doesn't mean they can't do what's best for the team out of good will. The question is how much good will is left in the team?

Alonso's 'tainted' title
If Fernando Alonso seals the title by less than seven points there will inevitably be some observers who claim Ferrari bought it for the paltry sum of $100,000 at the German Grand Prix. But the counter argument is that the team simply found a loophole in the rules and when its actions were scrutinised by the FIA, it was the regulations that were found wanting and not Ferrari. Whichever view you subscribe to, it won't change the record books and if Alonso finishes second this weekend he will be champion.

Engines
Heat, dust and engines don't mix well and that heady combination could, unfortunately, decide the title. Mark Webber's engine took a bit of a beating in Brazil when a water leak saw its temperature peak and his charge fizzle out. The team managed the problem from the garage and will be hoping no serious damage was done. Meanwhile, Fernando Alonso will have his own concerns after his practice engine exploded in Brazil and he appears to have the highest mileage race engine of the top three.

Pirelli tyre test
The champagne will have barely dried before Formula One shifts its focus entirely to 2011. The upcoming tyre test will be the moment of truth for many teams, as they find out whether their predictions of how the Pirelli tyres will behave - on which next year's cars have been entirely based - match the reality.

Trivia

• Last year's race won an award for the Best Promoted Race at the FIA Gala in Monaco. The award recognised Abu Dhabi's achievement in creating a state-of-the-art venue and hosting Formula One's first twilight grand prix
• A sophisticated lighting system is in place around the Yas Marina to allow the race to start at sundown and continue into the night. Light fixtures with vertical controllable beams remove shadow and glare at driver level
• Abu Dhabi is the capital of the United Arab Emirates and its name translates literally as 'father of the gazelle'. Its modern wealth is founded on oil, construction and financial services, although Abu Dhabi was settled in the third millennium BC by nomads and fishermen
• Yas Marina is the only circuit on the F1 calendar with a pit lane tunnel, where the drivers rejoin the track by passing underneath it

Fast facts

• Sebastian Vettel holds the lap record with a time of 1.40.279, set last year in his Red Bull
• The circuit is 5.554 km and is the seventh longest circuit on the 2010 calendar
• The fastest corner is the left hand sweeping turn two, taken at 260 km/h and putting the drivers under a pressure of 4G
• The Yas Hotel over the circuit is sold out for the grand prix weekend, but a room will cost up to £422 for the Monday after if anybody hangs around for the young driver test

Circuit

After an edgy weekend in Interlagos, F1 arrives at Abu Dhabi where nothing is left to chance and the circuit facilities are near sterile. The harbour setting and twilight timing provide an appropriate background for the season finale, even if passion and history are lacking. As a race track, Yas Marina offers plenty of challenges for both drivers and teams, with off-camber corners and heavy braking zones. Overtaking is possible into turns eight and 11 and the final sector can offer up close and exhilarating racing with little room for error.

Weather

Unsurprisingly for a race in the desert, the chances of precipitation over all three days is very low. In the day temperatures could reach 32C, but will be a little lower during the race as the sun goes down.

Betting

Mark Webber is the favourite to win in Abu Dhabi at 13/8, ahead of Red Bull team-mate Sebastian Vettel at 9/4, but weirdly Fernando Alonso remains favourite for the title at 8/11 ahead of Webber at 6/4. Lewis Hamilton is 7/1 to win the race and 50/1 to win the championship.

ESPNF1 prediction

If there wasn't a title at stake Sebastian Vettel would be the favourite, but as long as Mark Webber keeps a clear view of his gearbox from second and Fernando Alonso is running fourth or higher, Vettel will probably do what's best for the team and move over. For that reason, the most likely winner in a straight-forward fight is Webber.

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