The Derby

Recital to spoil The Queen's House party

Alex Livie June 2, 2011

Will Carlton House provide The Queen with a Derby victory? © Getty Images

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We've had a Royal Wedding and the feel-good factor will kick into gear again if Carlton House hands The Queen a first win in the Derby.

Her Majesty is a major supporter of racing in the UK and has had widespread success. She has won four of the five English Classics, most famously with Dunfermline in the Oaks in 1977 - her Silver Jubilee year. The closest The Queen has come to tasting glory in the Derby was in 1953 when Aureole was second to Pinza.

No reigning monarch has won the Derby since Minoru triumphed for Edward VII in 1909, but the bookmakers are running scared that it could happen again on Saturday as Carlton House has been backed in to favouritism since his win in the Dante Stakes at York in May.

Carlton House owes his place at the head of affairs due to his potential and the dearth of quality opposition he will face. The son of Street Cry has two wins to his name - a nine-length romp in a Newbury maiden last October and success in the Dante - a Group Two event albeit a tried and trusted trial for the Derby.

Derby wagers

Recital to win the Derby, 5/1 at bet365

Racing needs a shot in the arm, having been dragged through the mud with race-fixing allegations and the whip debate, and it would be a superb story if Carlton House were to win. But let's not sit on the fence, this is a poor Derby. Only one horse brings Group One-winning form to the table - the Aidan O'Brien-trained Recital who ploughed through the mud to land the Criterium de Saint Cloud last November.

Recital has proved his well-being with victory in the Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial, but he arguably raised more questions than answers as it took all of Kieren Fallon's quality in the saddle to keep the horse from going over the rail - so much was he lugging to the left. A repeat of those antics would not be advised on the camber of Epsom, but he may be held on to for a shade longer in a bid to keep the quirks under lock and key.

O'Brien has another string to his bow: Seville, who comes into the race with the highest official rating of 117. But he was beaten fair and square by Carlton House in the Dante and there is no reason why that form should be turned around.

The buzz horse in the race is the Andre Fabre-trained Pour Mou who impressed work watchers on a recent reconnaissance mission to Epsom. He was impressive in winning the Prix Greffulhe but it is guesswork as to how much improvement he has in him.

The horse that brings Classic form to the table is Native Khan, although it has to be said that he did not see which way Frankel went in the 2000 Guineas. He looks sure to benefit from the step up in trip, but Fallon had the choice of riding Native Khan or Recital and jumped off the grey following a trial spin round Epsom. Fallon has three Derby wins under his belt and there are few better judges in the weighing room so we are inclined to take the hint.

There would be no finer sight for the majority of British racing fans than to see The Queen high-fiving Prince Philip as Carlton House powers clear inside the final furlong. But there are too many doubts for us to row in at the current price of 2/1. A pre-race injury scare has only added to the uncertainty. He came through a canter on Thursday but there is no way Sir Michael Stoute would have put the gun to the colt's head and it will have served nothing more than to prove Carlton House is in one piece.

The best advice as far as Carlton House is concerned is to see how he looks on the big day and if he seems to be firing on all cylinders, he could well live up to the hype. But the advice is to follow the shrewd figure of Fallon and his mount Recital. He is a Group One winner, trained by the master of Ballydoyle and has talent in abundance. Take the 5/1 as he looks a cracking bet to finish in the first three.

Carlton House 2/1
Pour Moi 7/2
Recital 5/1
Seville 6/1
Native Khan 10/1
Ocean War 14/1
Vadamar 16/1
Memphis Tennessee 20/1
Masked Marvel 25/1
Treasure Beach 25/1
Pisco Sour 80/1
Marhaba Malyoon 200/1
Castlemorris King 500/1

Please note that odds are correct at time of publication and are subject to change.

Alex Livie