• Japanese Grand Prix - FP2

Alonso predicts qualifying lottery in the wet

Fernando Alonso © Getty Images

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Fernando Alonso is expecting a qualifying lottery ahead of the Japanese Grand Prix if the forecasted rain hits Suzuka on Saturday.

Up to 50mm of rain is expected ahead of qualifying meaning there is a danger the session could be postponed. Alonso, who was fourth fastest on Friday and way off the pace of the Red Bulls, said heavy rain would shift the focus from raw speed to adopting a low risk strategy.

"In theory, Red Bull look unbeatable here, as they always have done, except in Monza and also there were various races where come Sunday, they were beaten, so again that's a reason to wait before drawing any conclusions," he said. "Today, we did not put together a perfect lap, so there is some room for improvement. We have to analyse the data to see how to do that, but of course the others will be doing the same. The forecast is for rain tomorrow: if that happens, we must concentrate and avoid making any mistakes, which can cost you a lot in the wet. Then it will be down to luck, as to who finds themselves in the right place at the right time on the right tyre. The aim in qualifying is to be in the top five, then we can see how things go in the race."

He added that it wasn't worth reading too much into the Friday times and that it still wasn't entirely clear which car suited Suzuka best.

"It is only Friday, so the times today do not really mean much. What we must always keep in mind is that the pecking order between the cars can change significantly in terms of which track we are at: you only have to look at McLaren who were very strong in Spa and Monza, but definitely less so in Budapest and Singapore. So I would say it is best to wait until the end of tomorrow before giving a definite judgement on the situation here in Suzuka."

Felipe Massa said he was surprised by the Red Bull's dominance, but is looking to take advantage of any opportunities that arise in qualifying.

"I thought Red Bull would be very strong and maybe they are even more so than I had expected," he said. "Having said that, it's likely we will have a wet qualifying tomorrow, so anything could happen: we must try and be ready to make the most of whatever situation presents itself. The aim is still the same, whether the track is dry or if it rains, which means to qualify as well as possible. The track is pretty hard on tyres because of the many high speed corners, therefore managing them properly will be important during the race. We will use the blown rear wing, as on this track it definitely brings an advantage in performance terms. There is still room to improve the handling of our car, but we can't really expect any sort of change in terms of performance."

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