• What the Deuce

A one-horse race

Jo Carter May 17, 2010
Rafael Nadal has rediscovered the taste for winning silverware © Getty Images
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After a challenging preview of the women's contenders for the French Open last week, What the Deuce takes a look at the men who are likely to make a splash in Paris. While there are any number of women capable of winning the Coupe Suzanne Lenglen, it is an entirely different kettle of fish in the men's draw. With Rafael Nadal looking virtually unstoppable, the battle for Coupe des Mousquetaires is a somewhat more one-sided affair.

The favourite
After a record-breaking weekend in which Rafael Nadal completed a clean-sweep on clay and broke Andre Agassi's record of Masters titles, becoming the first man to win three back-to-back clay-court Masters titles in the process, it is virtually impossible to see past the King of Clay. He may be the second seed and insist he is not the favourite, but in everybody else's eyes he is unstoppable. Nadal has dropped just two sets in three tournaments and barring mental self-destruction, or worse, a debilitating injury, no-one looks capable of getting in the way of the Spaniard securing his fifth title in six years at Roland Garros. 4/11

The defending champion
Roger Federer finally clinched that elusive French Open crown to secure his career Grand Slam 12 months ago, but victory would have been all the sweeter had his opponent been a certain Spaniard in the final. Federer has flailed since his Australian Open victory in January, but seems to have found his feet after a final appearance in Madrid. As the Roger-Rafa rivalry reignites, a mouth-watering final between the top two seeds could be on the cards. 7/2

The one to beat
The fact that Fernando Verdasco won just one game as he was steamrollered 6-0 6-1 by Nadal in the final in Monte Carlo last month, but then just a week later went on to clinch the title in Barcelona says more about Nadal being head and shoulders ahead of everyone else on clay than Verdasco's shortcomings. But the Spaniard already has two titles to his name this season (equal to the total number shared by Roger Federer, Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray in 2010) and has beaten a top ten player five times this season (including Djokovic twice). Verdasco has never made it past the fourth round at Roland Garros, but this could be his year to really make his mark. 25/1

Never write him off
As the epitome of inconsistency, Novak Djokovic is a hard one to call. Capable of sublime tennis that will put Federer to shame, the world No. 3 has struggled with his service game this season and pulled out of last week's Madrid Masters with illness. If fit, and more importantly in the right mental state, Djokovic is capable of going all the way, but it just depends which Novak decides to make it onto the court. 14/1

A surprise package
After a stunning run of form at the Australian Open in January, Andy Murray appeared to have run out of steam as he slumped to one defeat after another, with the British No. 1 seemingly unable to put his finger on what was missing. But convincing victories over Juan Ignacio Chela and Victor Hanescu in Madrid last week seemed to have got things back on track. Still not entirely at home on the red dirt, Murray's chances of making back-to-back Grand Slam finals are slim, but if he is able to transfer the confidence he showed in Spain to Paris, he could be a surprise package. A quarter-finalist last year, could he go one better this year? 25/1

Ernests Gulbis is fourth favourite to win in Paris © Getty Images
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The dark horse
For a player ranked No. 99 in the world just three months ago, Ernests Gulbis has enjoyed an impressive rise in form. Having broken into the top 30 for the first time in his career, the Latvian has proved he is capable of beating the best on his day, most memorably claiming the scalp of a certain Roger Federer in Rome. The pair were reunited in Madrid last week and Federer had his revenge, but Gulbis still took the world No. 1 to three sets. The fact that Gulbis' odds are shorter than Murray's is testament to just how impressive he is looking at the moment, so perhaps the dark horse title no longer fits. But for a virtual unknown to be fourth favourite for a Grand Slam is telling of his impressive rise. 20/1

Looking to go one better
At last year's French Open, Robin Soderling achieved something that not even the great Federer has managed; to beat Nadal at Roland Garros. The Swede stunned the crowds as he became the first Swede since his coach Magnus Norman to reach the French Open final, and ranked No. 25 in the world then, Soderling is now a presence in the top ten and is a genuine contender for at least a place in the semi-finals. 33/1

The Spanish inquisition
Traditionally strong on clay, the Spaniards have dominated this season's proceedings. In the seven tournaments in the European clay-court season, five have been won by Spaniards. Although neither David Ferrer nor Nicolas Almagro can lay claim to any of those titles, both have shown their capabilities on clay - Ferrer overcame Murray in back-to-back tournaments, while Almagro took a set off Nadal in Madrid. While neither are genuine title contenders, they are both tricky opponents and could claim a high-profile scalp in Paris. 40/1

Against the odds
The man with the world's fastest serve, Andy Roddick's game is not suited to the clay, and as a result the world No. 8 is not expected to go the distance at Roland Garros. That said, the American has built an impressive 26-4 record this season and has reached the final three times in his six tournaments. Yet to make a showing on the clay this season after withdrawing from Madrid with a virus, Roddick's chances of a second Grand Slam title are virtually non-existent, but for a man who has been knocked out at the first round stage four times and has never made it past the fourth round, a quarter-final showing could be an impressive result for Roddick ahead of the grass-court season. 250/1

An outside bet
The man who beat Murray in the French Open quarter-finals last year, Chile's Fernando Gonzalez has enjoyed an impressive showing at Roland Garros in recent years. Ranked 25th in the world two years ago, he reached the quarter-finals where he fell to top seed Federer, and last year he reached the semi-finals where he lost to Soderling. Gonzalez is not on the top of his game, and lost to Albert Ramos-Vinolas in the first round in Madrid last week, but is comfortable on clay and with a favourable draw could repeat last year's impressive showing. 100/1

Odds, courtesy of Stan James, correct at time of publication.

© ESPN Sports Media Ltd.
Jo Carter Close
Jo Carter is an assistant editor of ESPN.co.uk

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