• What the Deuce

The race to London

Jo Carter November 9, 2010

All eyes are on Paris this week for the final Masters event of the season, and for six men there is more than just pride and prize money at stake as they set their sights on a place at London's O2 Arena for the ATP World Tour Finals.

Rafael Nadal, Roger Federer, Novak Djokovic, Andy Murray and Robin Soderling have already booked their tickets; now only three places remain.

Marin Cilic's second-round defeat to David Nalbandian in Basel ended his faint hopes of qualifying, and Nicolas Almagro's season came to an abrupt end with a surprise defeat to Daniel Gimeno-Traver in Valencia.

That leaves six men fighting for the three remaining places: Tomas Berdych, David Ferrer, Andy Roddick, Fernando Verdasco, Mikhail Youzhny and Jurgen Melzer. So who deserves to join the party?

Leading the way in the year-to-date rankings is Tomas Berdych. Currently occupying a career-high ranking of sixth, Berdych has struggled to maintain the form that saw him reach his first grand slam final at Wimbledon. And despite failing to win a single title this year, it has been an impressive year for the Czech.

After breaking into the top 25 five years ago, Berdych reached the top 10 for the first time in July 2007, but his stay was short-lived. But he returned in style this season after a semi-final appearance at Roland Garros followed by his defeat to Nadal in the final at Wimbledon.

However, since then, Berdych has struggled to kick on. A shock first-round defeat to Michael Llodra at the US Open was followed by a string of disappointing results - he has won just two of his last ten matches.

So why can he stake his claim for a place in the final eight for the first time in his career? A final in Miami, a semi-final at Roland Garros and of course his stunning run at Wimbledon that saw both Federer and Djokovic cast by the wayside. And in terms of head-to-head results, he has beaten six of the current top ten this season, and four of the five players ranked above him - nothing short of a disaster in Paris will stop him reaching the finals.

Ferrer's victory in his home town of Valencia did him no harm as he moved ahead of Roddick in the race for London. It was the Spaniard's second title of the year, but that statistic doesn't do justice to the impressive consistency of Ferrer's season - he has reached 11 semi-finals this year, which is more than twice that of world No. 4 Murray.

Wins over Murray, Soderling, Berdych and Verdasco have helped cement Ferrer's place in the top ten, and if nothing else his rivalry with Soderling should merit an invitation to London. The pair have met five times in the last six months, with the Swede having won three of those encounters, but as the cliché goes, it is only the last result that matters, and that honour goes to the Spaniard.

Andy Roddick has qualified for the year-end finals for the last seven years, but has struggled with injuries and illness this season © Getty Images
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Roddick currently occupies the eighth and final qualification place, but he must be wondering whether his luck with hold out. On course to qualify for an impressive eighth straight year - second only to Federer's nine - he was forced to miss last year's event in London with a knee injury, and it looked like his season might be cut short with a groin injury when he retired in Shanghai.

The former world No. 1 had a superb start to the season with victories in Brisbane and Miami, but has been unlucky this season, struck down by a series of injuries and illnesses - a stomach virus disrupted his clay-court season and a mild case of mononucleosis was to blame for a poor hard court season in the United States.

But he was back with a bang in Basel last week, where only an in-form Federer halted his charge, and a solid performance in Paris should seal his place at a sixth year-end finals.

Given the nature of the men's season, spanning the best part of 11 months, a player will naturally endure peaks and troughs in the year, and the three players currently sitting outside of the qualification spots - Verdasco, Youzhny and Melzer - are at very contrasting points in that cycle.

Youzhny's season sparked into life at the US Open, where he reached the semi-finals, falling to eventual champion Nadal. He then went on to win the title in Kuala Lumpur, and despite a wobble in China, reached the final in St Petersburg.

Verdasco, by stark contrast, is floundering. The Spaniard had a stunning clay-court season, second only to Nadal, but has failed to record back-to-back victories since his quarter-final defeat to the world No. 1 at Flushing Meadows. The Spaniard leads Youzhny by 240 points, but form is not on his side as he looks to book his place for a second year in a row - having made it last year by virtue of Roddick's withdrawal, he failed to win a single match in the round-robin stage.

Melzer, meanwhile, has already booked his ticket to London - his Wimbledon doubles victory with Philipp Petzschner helped him secure his place in the doubles event. Despite his recent title in Vienna, only victory in Paris will guarantee Melzer his place among the elite in the singles event.

© ESPN Sports Media Ltd.
Jo Carter Close
Jo Carter is an assistant editor of ESPN.co.uk