• UFC 131

Dos Santos v Carwin: The ultimate shootout

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Very rarely do you get a fight that guarantees a knockout, but surely the UFC 131 main event does just that as Junior Dos Santos and Shane Carwin fight for the right to contest the UFC heavyweight championship. We turn to our American experts for their views on how the night will unravel.

Shane Carwin vs. Junior dos Santos

Jon Anik: Carwin by TKO -- Junior Dos Santos is certainly the safer play here and is the betting favourite. His layoff has been nearly as long as Shane Carwin's, but his inactivity hasn't been for health reasons. Carwin is the big variable in this spot after undergoing neck and back surgery. His cardio abandoned him in the fight with Brock Lesnar and Carwin is said to have made great strides in that area since. The real answer to that question comes Saturday night in Vancouver. Carwin would be wise to use his wrestling advantage and pursue the takedown. This space says Carwin will eventually land one of his lunchboxes on Dos Santos' chin and emerge as the next challenger to UFC heavyweight champion Cain Velasquez.

Chad Dundas: Carwin by TKO -- He's the bigger, stronger, assumedly more complete fighter and a glance at JDS' UFC résumé reveals he's never fought anyone with even a glimmer of Carwin's wrestling skills. On the other hand, it worries me that the former NCAA Division II national champ has said he'll turn this bout into a coin-flip by slugging it out with the slugger. Hopefully that's just gamesmanship.

Josh Gross: Dos Santos by TKO -- Someone's going down, and my sense is it will be Carwin. First, the obvious. Neither guy lacks for power, so one well-placed shot and it's all over. So why Dos Santos? Speed. He's a better boxer. He's proven he can go later into a fight and not completely fold physically. And his one area of concern -- wrestling -- probably won't be tested by Carwin. I see Dos Santos as the legit No. 2 heavyweight in the UFC, and he showcases why on Saturday.

Franklin McNeil: Dos Santos by TKO -- This fight will likely be decided in the opening round. If Carwin gets Dos Santos down and keeps him there, the fight's over. If Dos Santos survives Carwin's early assault, he will be on his way toward a title shot. Carwin has one-punch knockout power, but Dos Santos' speed will prove beneficial. The longer the fight lasts, the better it gets for Dos Santos. And until Carwin proves otherwise, cardio will be his greatest handicap. If Carwin makes it into the third round, he will surely be gassed and a sitting duck for Dos Santos' powerful uppercuts.

Chuck Mindenhall: Carwin by KO -- They both are carrying sledgehammers into this big title eliminator, and we know the potential for a flash knockout is lively going in. But there's something about Carwin's trajectory that seems perfect for this set up. He's had a year to reflect on what could have been in the Lesnar title fight, he's returning from neck surgery, and he's getting an expedited chance to leave it all behind. Wouldn't be surprised if he takes it to the mat early and lets fly some earth-moving ground-and-pound on a very real hunch that JDS is no match for him there.

Brett Okamoto: Dos Santos by TKO -- Seems like Carwin should absolutely turn to his wrestling in this fight, correct? Will he? I think so -- but either way Cigano gets the win here. Dos Santos is fighting with a lot of confidence right now, as he should be. I wouldn't be shocked if Carwin pulled it out, but hard to pick him in this one. Always take the younger, faster guy who's not coming off back surgery and has a bigger gas tank.

Tito Ortiz: Dos Santos by TKO -- By decisioning Roy Nelson, Dos Santos proved he can bounce haymakers off an opponents' head for three rounds (which kind of also proved he might be as hard a puncher as he was touted). Cigano has the game and the gas tank to things into the second round, where I think he'll sink Carwin.

Kenny Florian v Diego Nunes

Anik: Florian by decision -- Despite having as many finishes (8) in the lightweight division as current UFC champion Frankie Edgar has wins, Kenny Florian has chosen to move down to 145lbs with the hopes of a quicker path to UFC championship glory. While many in the industry disagreed with Florian's chosen path, a decisive victory over the talented Diego Nunes could land K-Flo his third UFC title shot. For Florian, it's all about getting through weight cut week. If he isn't too sapped from cutting down to 145, it's his fight to lose. Nunes is fast, athletic and well-rounded but doesn't have nearly the high-level UFC experience that Florian brings to the Octagon, nor is he as skilled. Nunes may prove too tough to put away, but Florian will rack up points in bunches to take his featherweight debut in style.

Dundas: Florian by decision -- Kudos to UFC matchmakers for giving Ken-Flo a stiff test against Nunes instead of a gimme in his first appearance at his new weight. So long as he's not sacrificing too much cardio and/or strength to make the cut, I think Florian can be a force at 145. Beating Nunes will be a good first step. If he can become the first man to finish the 28-year-old Brazilian, well, that'll be impressive.

Gross: Nunes by decision -- Very tough call here. Florian is as professional as professional gets in MMA. Nunes is fast, dangerous, and competes at his natural weight. Until we see Florian make weight and get an idea of how drained he is at 145 pounds, I doubt anyone could make a pick in this fight without some hesitation. Florian will have length to play with, and knows how to use his jab very well. On the floor, at worst it's an even fight, though Nunes might just have an advantage. The biggest hurdle for Florian might be the difference in how fighters move at lightweight compared to featherweight. Speed kills, and I think it does in this one.

McNeil: Florian by decision -- Nunes has had an impressive run under the Zuffa banner, losing just once in five fights. But he has yet to face a fighter of Florian's calibre in live action. Florian can match Nunes' Muay Thai, is a better jiu-jitsu practitioner and he tends to be more active in the stand-up. The key in this fight will be Florian's ability to take Nunes down. Florian has worked extra hard on his wrestling in this camp. If he can consistently put Nunes on his back, Florian will cruise to victory.

Mindenhall: Florian by decision -- This fight has a tricky amount of variables, headlined by Florian's much ballyhooed weight cut, but there's one thing he has heading into his featherweight debut and it's this: big-game experience. He's been in enough spotlit fights to find and settle into his rhythm early, and I foresee the southpaw picking Nunes apart on the feet, winning scrambles and working to superior positions on the mat. Wash, rinse, repeat, for three rounds.

Okamoto: Florian by decision -- To me, this is Kenny Florian versus the cut to featherweight. I have nothing bad to say about Nunes; he's a terrific talent. But I think Florian is slightly better in every aspect. The question is how much will the cut to 145 take out of him, a question even Florian can't 100 per cent answer yet. If he's able to navigate the final stages of the cut well, I think he paces himself in the fight and takes it on points.

Ortiz: Florian by decision -- Betting on Florian is a tricky business, but he tends to win these types of fights. Nunes has a decent skillset but he's taking a major leap up in competition. Florian should rack up points before the effects of his weight cut kick in for a unanimous decision.

Mark Munoz v Demian Maia

Anik: Munoz by decision -- A fight with major implications in the middleweight division, the bout between contenders Demian Maia and Mark Munoz is the most difficult to predict on the UFC 131 main card. Both fighters have evolved appreciably in their UFC careers. Munoz has been on a tear since dropping down to 185 pounds; his lone setback a loss to current No. 1 contender Yushin Okami. Despite Maia's improved physique and stand-up game, Munoz has the boxing advantage. The Filipino Wrecking Machine's submission defense is also better than you think and I don't see him being finished on the ground. A close decision goes to Munoz.

Dundas: Munoz by decision -- An internet video I watched earlier this week pretty much made it look like working out at Munoz's Reign Training Center is one of the worst things that can happen to a person. Stuff looked hard. In light of that, I expect Munoz to be exquisitely prepared and his wrestling skills will allow him to dictate where this one is contested. We know from experience that Maia will pull guard if he has to, but as long as Munoz can limit the time on the mat and/or steer clear of subs, he wins this.

Gross: Munoz by decision -- This is terrific matchmaking by the UFC. Maia is the more accomplished fighter. Munoz is more physical and dangerous. Both men will be tested here, and in the end I see Munoz's wrestling and power leading him to victory. Conventional wisdom says Munoz must avoid Maia's Brazilian jiu-jitsu game at all costs, but I think he's fine in the guard, where Maia can leave himself open to getting hit as he opens up for submissions or sweeps. Munoz is one of the best ground-and-pound fighters in MMA, and at some point I think he hurts the Brazilian. Once that happens, the fight is his.

McNeil: Munoz by decision -- Boxing is the discipline each fighter has turned to for improved stand-up. And it will play a huge part in deciding the outcome of this bout. Both have made progress with boxing, but Munoz is far ahead of Maia at this point. After figuring out that he is at a distinct disadvantage standing, Maia will be desperate to get Munoz to the ground in hopes of working his submission game. But Maia will find it difficult to get Munoz, a solid wrestler, off his feet. A decision is likely for Munoz, but he also has the power to end it early.

Mindenhall: Munoz by decision -- Even after you've seen him do it multiple times, it still feels lofty to presume Demian Maia can get guys to the ground where he's the slickest Brazilian jiu-jitsu player going. Against a strong wrestler like Munoz, who KO'd CB Dollaway and before that out-toiled Aaron Simpson, the proposition seems that much more far-flung. In a stand-up war with lots of arm-weaving clinch, this one favors the "Filipino Wrecking Machine." Should Munoz make a mistake or slip? You'll see the whites of Maia's eyes all the way from Sao Paulo as he pounces.

Okamoto: Munoz by decision -- If you watch Maia in his last couple fights there is evidence of improved wrestling. Still, his single-leg ain't taking Munoz down and his standup hasn't improved enough to win it on the feet. That means, in my opinion, Maia is only winning this fight off his back or in the scramble. He's as dangerous as there is in those situations, but Munoz trains with some phenomenal grapplers and he's an intelligent fighter. At around even money, this seems like a crazy good bet to me, too.

Ortiz: Maia by submission -- Munoz has a knack for taking things to the ground -- exactly where Maia does his dirty work. I don't often go with the one-trick pony but Maia's so awesomely gifted and Munoz's strengths play into said gifts in such a way that I can't possibly pick against the Brazilian.

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