• European Grand Prix Preview

Harbour masters

Laurence Edmondson June 23, 2011

The European Grand Prix has the potential to be a turning point in the 2011 season. It will see the first steps in the FIA's campaign to clampdown on off-throttle blown diffusers (see below), which Ferrari team boss Stefano Domenicali believes will even out performance and herald the start a "second championship". More significant, however, is that both McLaren and Ferrari have closed the gap to Red Bull over the past three races, and there are good reasons to believe that both will be in the fight for victory this weekend. Sebastian Vettel is still the clear favourite but is likely to feel more pressure from his rivals, which, as we saw in Canada, can lead to small mistakes.

On form

Jenson Button's victory at the Canadian Grand Prix was undoubtedly one of the best of his career and most likely the best we'll see from any driver this season. But it wasn't completely out of the blue. At the last three races he has been driving to the best of his ability, with a great comeback to third after a bad start in Spain, a brilliant drive in Monaco that very nearly resulted in victory and of course his performance in the wet at Montreal. Most tellingly, he's been close to team-mate Lewis Hamilton in qualifying, the main area he admitted he needed to improve on at the end of last season. But closing the gap to Sebastian Vettel is another matter entirely and will require him to consistently deliver performances of Canada calibre for the rest of the season.

Out of form

Virgin's 2011 season has not gone to plan. The team has lost ground to Lotus since last year and now appears to be losing in a tight battle with Hispania over the last few places on the grid. The team has reacted to its poor results by parting ways with technical director Nick Wirth, but that has left the car with little to no planned upgrades for the rest of the year. 2012 is now the target, but with the 107% qualifying rule looming at every event Virgin cannot afford to lose much more ground over the rest of the season.

One to watch

Pastor Maldonado has qualified in the top ten at two of the last three races and in Monaco came very close to scoring his first Formula One points. In terms of pure one-lap pace he has had the edge over team-mate Rubens Barrichello since the start of the European season and Williams has turned the car into top-ten challenger. Maldonado has plenty of experience of the Valencia street circuit from his time in GP2 and came second at his first attempt in 2008 and won in 2010. As long as he can keep the car out of the barriers during practice, qualifying and the race, he should be in the hunt for points this weekend.

Talking Points

Button's future
After a News of the World story linked Jenson Button to Ferrari, there has been speculation that he might leave McLaren. However, Button has made no indication that he wants to go anywhere else and McLaren is keen to keep him onboard for the next few seasons. After his win in Canada he has become one of F1's hottest properties and has almost been given as many column inches as his team-mate Lewis Hamilton who has been linked to Red Bull. Expect the McLaren PR machine to swing into action and play down such reports over the weekend, with a fresh contract ready for Button in the next few weeks.

2014 engines
After an awful lot of posturing, the teams and the FIA have agreed to delay the reintroduction of turbo engines by one year and settled for V6s over straight fours. The F1 commission met on Wednesday to reach the decision after concerns about the cost, sound and overall image of F1 were flung at the FIA - that in fairness had the full agreement of the teams for the four-pot plan back in December. The changes still have to be rubber stamped by the World Motor Sport Council but the switch will be seen as a victory for Ferrari which has been anti-four cylinder engines right from the very start. It will also be interesting to see if the green credentials can lure the likes of Porsche and Honda back to F1.

Overtaking

The double DRS was met by a mixed reaction in Canada, but despit the sceptics it's back for this weekend's European Grand Prix. For those not familiar with F1's latest acronyms, DRS stands for Drag Reduction System - a moveable rear wing in plain English - and a double DRS is when the driver has two zones in which he can use the wing to try to overtake the car in front. At the first six rounds of the year a single zone appeared to work just fine, but in Canada there were two zones meaning any car within a second of the one in front got two attempts to pass with the aid of an open rear wing. In Canada it made overtaking very easy in some circumstances and drivers tended to pass in the first zone and increase their lead in the second. However, Valencia is a circuit where drivers have struggled to overtake in recent years and any aid to improve the chances of passing is likely to be welcomed.

Exhaust blown diffusers
Using exhaust gases to improve the performance of a car's diffuser has become an increasingly tight and technical battleground in F1 over the past year. All the teams are at it - from Red Bull to HRT - but naturally some gain more of an advantage than others. Key to the success of the system is getting it to work when the driver is off-throttle in order to keep a steady level of downforce over the whole lap. But the FIA is keen to clampdown on this practice and the first of its measures will be introduced this weekend. The teams use elaborate engine maps to achieve the constant flow of gases when the driver is off-throttle and some use particularly aggressive settings in qualifying for maximum effect. This weekend the FIA is banning teams from changing their engine maps between qualifying and the race, which some believe could peg Red Bull back a few tenths. At the British Grand Prix off-throttle blowing will be limited to just 10%, which may well turn the season on its head.

Fast facts

• The average speed is the highest of any street circuit on the calendar at over 200km/h
• The track has more corners than any other on the calendar with 25 in total, 14 right-handers and 11 left-handers
• The official lap record is 1:38.683 set by Timo Glock in a Toyota in 2009
• The cars are at full throttle for 69% of the lap

Trivia

• The European Grand Prix has been staged at five different circuits - Nurburgring, Brands Hatch, Jerez, Donington and Valencia
• The Valencia circuit is built around the America's Cup port and marina area. It features a swing bridge section, which opens every evening to leave the track incomplete each night
• Valencia is famous for being the birthplace of the popular Spanish dish paella
• Near to the circuit is the futuristic Ciutat de les Arts i les Ciències, which cost an estimated €150 million to build

Circuit

On paper the Valencia street circuit looks like a cracker. It has long, wide straights punctuated by heavy braking zones and a flowing, high-speed final sector between concrete walls. But in reality, the straights aren't long enough, the braking zones aren't heavy enough and the final sector only serves to spread the field apart. If overtaking does occur, it's likely to be thanks to the DRS and it will take place into the chicane at turn 12 or the hairpin at turn 17.

FIA driver steward

Three-time grand prix winner Heinz-Harald Frentzen is this weekend's driver steward, after he performed the same role at the European Grand Prix last year.

Weather

Bright Spanish sunshine is expected over all three days of the grand prix weekend, with air temperatures hovering around 30C. In preparation for the hotter conditions Pirelli has brought soft compound tyres instead of super-softs and is pairing them the mediums which will make their race debut this weekend. Despite the tyre supplier erring on the side of caution, degradation levels are still expected to be high and three-stop strategies are likely to be the norm on Sunday.

Betting

Sebastian Vettel is by far the favourite to win in Valencia at even odds, ahead of Lewis Hamilton at 10/3 and Fernando Alonso at 5/1. Canada's winner Jenson Button has slightly more tempting odds at 15/2 while Felipe Massa, who showed improved form in Montreal, is a longer shot at 33/1.

ESPN Prediction

If things had turned out slightly differently in Monaco and Canada Fernando Alonso could have two victories to his name this season. Of course ifs and buts are worth nothing in Formula One, but the Ferrari does have the potential to win races and in Canada showed a dramatic improvement in qualifying pace.

Laurence Edmondson is the deputy editor on ESPNF1

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