• What the Deuce

Federer looking nervously over his shoulder at Murray

Jo Carter October 4, 2011

While that first grand slam title continues to elude Andy Murray, he could be rewarded for reaching the semi-finals of all four majors this season by ending the year in the top three for the first time.

Victory in Bangkok on Sunday, where he brushed past Donald Young in just 48 minutes, saw him collect his third title of the year and close the gap on current world No. 3 Roger Federer.

Despite climbing (briefly) to a career-high ranking of No.2 in 2009, Murray has finished the last three years at No. 4, but he is firmly on course to usurp the Swiss by the end of the year.

While Federer is taking a break to recover from "nagging injuries", Murray is in the midst of a busy autumn in the Far East. The British No. 1 is currently in Tokyo, playing at the Japan Open for the first time since 2006, before heading to China next week to defend his Shanghai Masters title.

With 250 points already in the bag from his win in Thailand, Murray could pick up an extra 500 with victory in Tokyo, and should he retain his title in Shanghai, the Scot could leapfrog Federer in the rankings in a fortnight's time.

But let's not get carried away. Federer has demonstrated time and time again the danger of writing him off - just when it looks like his career might be on the slide, he bounces back to prove his critics wrong. He is the only man to really beat Novak Djokovic this year (Murray and Juan Martin del Potro also have wins to their names against the Serb, but on both occasions Djokovic retired injured) - proving that he does still have what it takes to beat the best players in the world.

After squandering two match points against Djokovic in last year's US Open semi-final - many suggested, not for the first time, that it was a sign that the Swiss no longer had the killer instinct. It happened again at Wimbledon this year, when Federer let a two-set lead slip for the first time at a major when he lost to Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in the quarter-finals.

But last year Federer bounced back from his defeat in New York, picking up titles in Basel and Stockholm before ending the year on a high, beating the then world No. 1 Nadal to win his fifth year-end title at the ATP World Tour Championships in London.

Can Roger Federer fend off Murray for the world No. 3 spot? © Getty Images
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Regardless of whether he ever wins another slam, Federer's place in the record books is already guaranteed. What the 16-time grand slam champion lacks in sheer power he makes up for in versatility and pin-point accuracy. His grace and guile have seen him capture nearly $65 million in prize money, but his unique style is becoming increasingly ineffective against the powerhouses of the sport.

One of the biggest reasons behind Federer's enduring success has been his fitness. In 13 years as a professional, he has never missed a single grand slam. While Nadal clearly has the jump on Federer on the court (he has won 17 of 25 meetings between the pair), Federer's durability could see him win the ultimate battle - the claim to being the greatest player of all time, the man affectionately referred to as GOAT.

When Nadal scooped his career Grand Slam in New York last year (the ninth of his 10 major titles), the inevitable question was whether the Spaniard could surpass Federer's record of 16 grand slam titles. While Federer's playing style has allowed him to stay virtually injury-free for over a decade, Nadal's knees are likely to be pivotal in whether he can pick up another six or seven majors.

It could be that the way Federer has managed to look after himself could be the deciding factor in how long his record endures. How ironic, then, that his "nagging injuries" could prove the beginning of the end, as Federer looks set to end the year ranked outside the top two for the first time since 2002.

His decision to rest may be a masterstroke, ensuring he is in top health to defend his title at the year-end championships at London's O2 Arena next month. But if Murray can amass enough points in Asia to leapfrog Federer, it could prove to be the start of a slide down the rankings for the Swiss.

It will be a year of firsts for the Swiss: the first year since 2002 he spends Christmas without a major trophy on the mantelpiece; the first time in nine years he'll end the year ranked outside the top two.

With just one title to his name since the turn of the year, it could be his leanest season since 2001.

Can Murray further dent Federer's pride and nudge him another place down the rankings?

© ESPN Sports Media Ltd.
Jo Carter Close
Jo Carter is an assistant editor of ESPN.co.uk