• UFC 137

Penn v Diaz: Fight of the Year potential

October 28, 2011

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Take two of the best boxers currently in the sport of MMA, mix it with the fact that they both have mind-boggling ground games, and then add in the ingredient that neither goes down unless hit by brick - and even then the damage isn't terminal. It's BJ Penn v Nick Diaz, it's two legendary names of the sport, and it could be as good as it gets all year.

Throw in collisions involving Cheick Kongo v Matt Mitrione and Dennis Siver v Donald Cerrone, and it's well worth a look at our picks below...

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BJ Penn v Nick Diaz

Where the fight could be won or lost: On paper, this is Nick Diaz's fight. He's one of just a few in the division who can probably outbox BJ Penn on a regular basis - especially given Diaz's reach advantage (4 inches). Diaz sets a good pace, which doesn't bode well with Penn's notorious conditioning issues.

However, it's possible that Penn will get this fight to the ground on his terms, although Diaz has never been submitted. Frankly, the level of competition Penn's been facing is far greater than what Diaz was seeing as the Strikeforce champ. Still, Penn is smaller and probably less-conditioned, and he won't hold a significant edge on the feet as he usually does. Diaz hasn't really been legitimately stopped since 2002, meaning this one could very well go the distance. Penn is 1-4-1 in that area since 2005. The facts point to Diaz, but Penn's class will tell.

The pick: BJ Penn - Unanimous decision

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Cheick Kongo v Matt Mitrione

Where the fight could be won or lost: Everybody likes Matt Mitrione right now. No doubt, he's one of the most athletic guys in the division and he's improving between each fight - very important to see at this stage of his career. How much of that, though, is illusion due to the fact he hasn't fought anyone yet? Cheick Kongo is a big step up in competition.

Mitrione has looked very comfortable in the cage, but we haven't really seen how he reacts to something going wrong. Likely, something will go wrong at least once in the Kongo fight. A big key here could be wrestling. We don't know what Mitrione is capable of in terms of offensive and defensive grappling yet. Kongo is capable of testing him there and the guess is he'll work that into his gameplan. However, on the flip side, Kongo has little to offer in a defensive sense. Kongo probably doesn't get any better than he is right now. He's 36. A 2-2-1 record in his last five doesn't hint too much at decline, but the time has to be now if he is to go on a significant run. The momentum is with Mitrione...

The pick: Matt Mitrione - TKO

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Dennis Siver v Donald Cerrone

Where the fight could be won or lost: Lots of people are overlooking Dennis Siver here - as evident by the lopsided betting line. No one really expects this to hit the ground. One of Siver's better weapons is his left hook, but you don't see Donald Cerrone making it easy on him and walking into one of those.

Big key here is: who's getting off first? Both counter well, but really are at their best when they are the ones throwing first. Siver is likely the more "heavy-handed," but that doesn't mean a whole lot in this case. Cerrone has been so accurate as of late and he's been the one setting the pace. Both like to go to the body, but Cerrone's effectiveness has a slight edge in that area. While Siver's arguably not quite as good as his four-fight win streak indicates, he's not a 2-to-1 underdog in this matchup. There is value in a Siver bet, but then again, a bet is worthless unless you end up cashing a ticket and nobody is cashing tickets betting against Cerrone right now. He is the better technical fighter here and his mental approach is the best it's ever been.

The pick: Donald Cerrone - Unanimous decision

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