UFC 129

All odds stacked against Jake Shields at UFC 129

ESPN.com staff

April 30, 2011

Jake Shields has few backers going into UFC 129 © Getty Images

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Georges St. Pierre v Jake Shields

Anik: St. Pierre by TKO. Shields is worthy. One of the best grapplers in MMA, his 15-fight winning streak has spanned more than five years, and along the way he has handled a bevy of different stylistic challenges. That said, none of those challenges was as stiff a test as facing the 2011 version of UFC welterweight champion St. Pierre. GSP's MMA game is refined and without an obvious hole. At this stage of his legacy-building, he would seem too intelligent and prepared to allow the door ajar with a glaring mistake. Conversely, St. Pierre is an absolute master at capitalizing on his opponent's errors. Shields' best shot to win will come early, when his gas tank is on full. Once he absorbs a dose of St. Pierre jabs and takedowns, he'll be in survival mode the rest of the way. And still …

Gross: St. Pierre by decision. I should be gutsy enough to take Shields. He's lived in my pound-for-pound for several years. He's a winner. A supreme competitor. I can actually envision him grappling St. Pierre to victory. So why am I sticking with the current UFC welterweight champion? Athleticism. Meticulous preparation. Speed. In a nail-biter of a fight that I hope will see GSP tested in ways he has not been recently, "Rush" wins on points.

McNeil: St. Pierre by decision. Shields will get St. Pierre to the ground at various times throughout this bout; how long he can keep him there will decide the outcome. From this vantage point, it appears that Shields won't be able to hold GSP down for extended periods. St. Pierre is the better all-around fighter, and his superior jab and footwork will frustrate Shields for five rounds. This is a dangerous fight for St. Pierre on the ground, where Shields can submit anyone, but the champ tends to keep the action where he wants it. And St. Pierre wants this to be a stand-up affair.

Mindenhall: St. Pierre by TKO. Shields nationalized jiu-jitsu by infusing it with aggressive wrestling, and this has been a winning hybrid -- the last time he lost (in 2004), Jon Jones was getting his driver's license. But if there's one thing St. Pierre knows, it's how to exploit weaknesses. What's Shields' weakness? We will know by Round 2 as GSP demonstrates, and it'll seem glaring by Round 3. It helps that how GSP guards himself in the cage is only seconded by how fiercely he guards against complacency.

Okamoto: St. Pierre by decision. Too athletic. Too well-rounded. Too dedicated. I'd like to pick against St. Pierre just for a change of pace -- but I can't. Shields is the last man standing, there's not a UFC welterweight left I'd really want to see fight St. Pierre. If he wins this, I do hope he moves up and challenges himself at 185. Regardless if he does or not, a win over the quality Shields in Toronto would be a standout moment in St. Pierre's career.

Ortiz: St. Pierre by decision. St. Pierre has dealt with master wrestlers in the past. Nothing new here. I've also seen Shields get pushed to the brink with lesser fighters than GSP. Shields' resilience and titanium chin will see him through to the final bell, but it's St. Pierre who will have his hand raised.

Jose Aldo's stand-up is unrivalled at 145lbs © Getty Images

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Jose Aldo v Mark Hominick

Anik: Aldo by TKO. UFC featherweight champion Aldo made his U.S. debut in June 2008 and has been ruining dudes ever since. As vicious and unforgiving a striker as I've seen in MMA, Aldo is the definition of a fight finisher. Mark Hominick is as worthy a challenger as there is right now at 145 pounds, but that doesn't necessarily mean he's worthy. A technical striker who rarely exposes himself with a costly mistake, Hominick must keep his emotions in check, with 55,000 strong voicing their support. The recipe to beat Aldo has yet to be concocted, and Hominick doesn't appear to have the skill set to concoct it. Another one bites the dust. Paging Chad Mendes.

Gross: Aldo by submission. If there's a hint of doubt or, worse yet, lingering physical effects from a scary-sounding injury to Aldo's spine, Hominick can pull something off. If not, it's Aldo's fight to win. And he will. The bulk of the prefight discussion has centered on Aldo's dynamism and improvisational striking against Hominick's crisp footwork and punching combinations. It'll be fun to watch for however long it lasts. But I see this fight ending on the ground, where Aldo will snag some sort of submission after he hurts Hominick enough.

McNeil: Aldo by TKO. Coming off his impressive first-round TKO of George Roop in January, Hominick appears at his peak. But he has not faced anyone quite like Aldo. The featherweight champion is one of the most accurate, power strikers in MMA. Aldo also possesses very good jiu-jitsu skills, although he rarely displays it in the cage. Hominick is an aggressive striker, but he isn't difficult to find. His porous defense will prove fatal against the hard-hitting Aldo. This fight will end in Round 3.

Mindenhall: Aldo by TKO. Aldo is one of the few fighters who lives up to best pound-for-pound billing every time. He is arguably the best striker in MMA, and he has finished seven of his past eight opponents (via a kaleidoscope of flying knees, elbows, punches, etc.). The only guy who went the distance (Urijah Faber) came out like a martyr. Just as he did to Faber in Sacramento, Aldo will make a house call to Hominick's province in his Octagon debut and will make quick work of the game hometown hero.

Okamoto: Aldo by TKO. Unlike some of Aldo's previous opponents, Hominick's game plan likely will consist of standing with the Brazilian instead of looking for a chance to take him down. Hominick is underrated and capable of landing some shots with his technical stand-up -- but he's bringing sparklers to a fireworks show. Like those before him, Hominick will be overwhelmed by the speed and power.

Ortiz: Aldo by submission. If Faber's frenetic pace and precise punching couldn't offset the acrobatic Aldo, there's nothing in Hominick's arsenal that can, either. Hominick has had a storied career, and Saturday's homecoming will add another chapter to his memoirs, but don't expect a fairytale ending Saturday. I'll take Aldo in one.

Randy Couture will have 55,000 fans on his side © Getty Images

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Randy Couture v Lyoto Machida

Anik: Machida by decision. Couture would not have accepted this fight against a consensus top-five light heavyweight at age 47 if he didn't think he could win it. He has the clinch game and accompanying physicality to direct the fight to the outside and prevent Machida from finding his rhythm. Although I certainly can envision Couture grinding his way to a decision victory, it's hard to see a fighter as talented as Machida dropping a third straight fight in the Octagon, regardless of opponent. Couture will have the crowd and his moments, but Machida's speed and strikes will take over late in a fight that will be closer than the Vegas line suggests.

Gross: Machida by decision. Is it really Couture's last hurrah? Quite the test to go out on for "The Natural" if, indeed, this is the final time the 47-year-old former champion steps into the Octagon. Couture will have to negotiate a way past Machida's footwork, speed and in-close defense. He'll have to fight in the clinch and pressure Machida into making mistakes. The Brazilian, who's in serious need of a win, just has to keep Couture on the end of his punches and kicks, keep distance and move -- and then he should be fine. Couture, as always, makes it competitive. But I don't think he has enough to win.

McNeil: Machida by decision. This will be Couture's final MMA fight, and he wants to go out with a win. Couture is too experienced and intelligent to stand with Machida. He will attempt to get this fight to the ground often, but Machida is very elusive and should have little trouble picking the 47-year-old Couture apart for three rounds. This fight is far more important to Machida, who must win to remain relevant at 205 pounds.

Mindenhall: Machida by TKO. As far as swan songs go, this is a good one for The Natural, who will face another former champion in the sport in front of a triple-sized crowd. No doubt the 47-year-old Couture sees a chance to neutralize and capitalize on Machida's reclined fighting style, envisioning this fight going to the ground, where he can unload the heavy artillery. I have a similar vision, but I see Couture being clipped with a long-armed combo and going on his ground mission solo.

Okamoto: Machida by TKO. Against a different opponent, I might be persuaded to think that one more shocker hides up Couture's sleeve. Stylistically, though, this is a tough one. Common sense says the fight has to go to the ground at some point for Couture to pull it out, and I don't think it will. As long as Machida doesn't overlook his 47-year-old opponent, he holds all the advantages.

Ortiz: Couture by decision. Every great fighter has one great fight left in him. Couture is as great as they come -- an ageless wonder who's managed to defy the odds and the "chin is the first to go" adage. It won't pocket either guy any fight-of-the-night coin, and it definitely won't find its way on to a greatest-hits compilation, but the bout should prove to be a scrappy affair with both men having their moments -- and Couture having his hand raised after three rounds.

Ben Henderson needs to bounce back from defeat to Anthony Pettis © Getty Images

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Mark Bocek v Ben Henderson

Jon Anik: Bocek by decision. Glad I'm not a judge or an oddsmaker for this one, as former WEC champion Ben Henderson hits hostile territory for his UFC debut against Toronto native Mark Bocek. Henderson is a pure pleasure to watch, ably combining a well-rounded skill set with massive amounts of cardio and heart. On the other side, Bocek is starving to take advantage of the hometown showcase, and for my money, he is perhaps the most underrated lightweight in the UFC. Were it not for a close loss to Jim Miller last year, we could be talking about a lightweight contender. Henderson is difficult to put away, and scoring points appears to be the likely method of victory for either party. We'll take the slight underdog by split decision in the fight of the night.

Josh Gross: Henderson by decision. A terrific start to the pay-per-view with what very well could materialize into the fight of the night. I've questioned the overall level of lightweight fighters who competed in the WEC, although a handful appeared to have the requisite physical tools and skill sets to get it done. Henderson is one of those guys. He gets no favors in his first UFC contest against Bocek, who's quietly put together a nice ledger in the UFC. Still, I like Henderson. He's very physical, doesn't fatigue and is almost impossible to tap.

Franklin McNeil: Henderson by decision. The former WEC lightweight champ has a knack for getting himself out of difficult situations inside the cage. Against Bocek, he will avoid difficulty on the ground by using his superior wrestling skills. Henderson is a smart fighter who will keep it simple against Bocek and win. Unlike in some of his more recent fights, Henderson will show patience Saturday night.

Chuck Mindenhall: Bocek by decision. Although former WEC champion Henderson's fights are generally loud (the Donald Cerrone series, getting posterized by Anthony Pettis' kick, the Jamie Varner lead-up), Bocek is the complete opposite -- he goes about his contention on tiptoe. His biography reads like Storm Shadow's (of "G.I. Joe" fame); he gets to choose which black belt to wear. Bocek submitted jitz ace Dustin Hazelett in his last outing and gets a more athletic challenge in Henderson, but I think the local kid makes good.

Brett Okamoto: Henderson by decision. Henderson has found himself kicked to the curb. Instead of entering the UFC with a WEC belt around his waist, "Smooth" is planted in the middle of a ridiculously stacked division thanks to Pettis. Whether he has what it takes to hold a title again is a question for another day. For now, I think a motivated Henderson outpoints Bocek in a close fight.

Darius Ortiz: Henderson by decision. Can't really put it any better than Brett did. (See above.) Henderson went from next in line to back of the line thanks to a "Matrix" kick to the head. Still, with age on his side and a choke defense that would earn kudos from even the most jaded of certified CPR instructors, it's hard to imagine the close decision loss having any lasting effects on Smooth. Henderson should outwork Bocek and escape a submission or two for a clear-cut decision win.

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Jason Brilz v Vladimir Matyushenko

Anik: Brilz by TKO. The forecast is for fireworks between these two light heavyweight veterans. With more than 50 fights between them and a handful of common opponents, neither Brilz nor Matyushenko has been able to make much of a splash in the big show. Matyushenko has risen higher in the rankings, at one point ubiquitously regarded as a top-15 205er. Brilz is closer to that level at present, with just two losses in his past 16 fights (both by split decision). This space says it'll be Brilz who lands the decisive blow.

Gross: Matyushenko by decision. Odd fight to include on the pay-per-view. Stylistically speaking, there's little potential for quality exchanges on the feet or the floor. Neither man is a contender, nor will they be. It'll be a 15-minute bathroom break for the fans in the Rogers Centre before the evening's title fights. Spike-televised Nate Diaz versus Rory MacDonald is more deserving and more important. Whatever. Give me Matyushenko to outpoint Brilz.

McNeil: Matyushenko by decision. Don't be fooled by the poor split-decision loss that Brilz suffered against Antonio Rogerio Nogueira at UFC 114; he'll find Matyushenko tougher to take down than Lil Nog. Matyushenko possesses enough wrestling know-how to stuff most of Brilz's takedown attempts, and he is the superior striker in this fight. Matyushenko will win the stand-up battle and come away victorious.

Mindenhall: Brilz by TKO. The twilight of the never-quite idols? Maybe, but what you have been promised by these erstwhile wrestling parties is what you'll get -- a brawl. Matyushenko still packs a mean punch, and he's just as sturdy as he's ever been in the pocket when not fighting Jon Jones. But the image I have is Brilz giving Lil Nog all he wanted despite not getting his hand raised. I see him getting the Janitor into a big exchange and lowering the boom.

Okamoto: Matyushenko by decision. A war of attrition. The phrases "Who wants it more?" and "Gut-check time" will likely apply. A quick victory by either seems unlikely, but both are capable of posting a grinding-type win. Apologies for the horrible play on words here, but this one will be messy, so give me the Janitor.

Ortiz: Matyushenko by decision. Unless he really wants to be "The Janitor" come Monday morning, Matyushenko had better end the night with his hand raised. Zuffa's 205-pound stable is stacked too deep for middle-of-the-pack pugs who aren't exactly on the upswing. Matyushenko's power should keep Brilz honest and on the wrong end of a three-round decision.

Check out ESPN.com for more build-up to UFC 129: St-Pierre v Shields