Andy Murray seems the only man capable of stopping Djokovic in New York
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The final grand slam event of the year, the US Open, begins on Monday and it doesn't take a genius to realise that one of the top four men will win the title. But picking which one, despite Novak Djokovic's stellar year, is still no easy task.
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The only thing we need to know with regard to Djokovic is whether the shoulder problem that prompted him to quit during the final against Murray in Cincinnati a week ago is really bothering him or whether his withdrawal was just a precaution. It's always difficult to get the truth but the word from his camp seems to be that he will be fine.
If that's the case, then bet365's odds of 11/8 on the Serbian seem fair. The 24-year-old has won two grand slam titles so far this year, lost just twice and has so much confidence that he seems like he just does not know how to lose. That's a deadly combination.
His draw is also good - he should be untroubled until the quarter-finals at least and if he is fully healthy, then Gael Monfils will not be a problem, which will leave a potential semi-final against Roger Federer.
Betting bullets
- Andy Murray to win the US Open - E/W 9/2 bet365
- Saver - Novak Djokovic to win US Open 11/8 bet365
It was their semi-final last year that really sparked Djokovic's sensational run of form that has taken in a Davis Cup title, Australian Open crown, Wimbledon title and seven other tournament wins in 2011, including five wins over Nadal in finals.
As the No 3 seed, Federer is the man who could theoretically stop him, as he did at the French Open earlier in the summer. But that match had some mitigating circumstances for Djokovic, who had not played for a few days because of a walkover and whose rhythm had been disrupted.
That said, Federer played superbly on that day and the conditions in New York suit him down to the ground. Yet he has begun to lose to people he never would have struggled against in the past and that is a slippery slope that could end in an early defeat over the next fortnight, let alone one to Djokovic in the semi-finals.
The bottom half of the draw is about Rafael Nadal and Andy Murray. There are question marks about Nadal, who burnt fingers last week in Cincinnati but who, it should not be forgotten, is the defending champion.
Last year he played some of his best ever tennis to triumph and having struggled a little since Wimbledon - his foot may still be an issue - he will be relatively fresh and I expect him to play well again. Beating him over five sets is still an enormously difficult task.
And so that leaves Andy Murray. Again the Scot tries to win his first grand slam title and again he has a good chance, on paper and in reality. His draw looks good to the fourth round where Stan Wawrinka may be waiting. The Swiss took him out in round three last year but Murray was struggling physically that day and in the tournament as a whole.
This time, he comes into the tournament fresh after an early defeat in Montreal but with his confidence enormously boosted by his win in Cincinnati, he will be hopeful of going to the semi-finals at least, where Nadal could again be waiting.
The hard courts of Flushing Meadows suit Murray's game nicely and if he plays to his strengths, fights for every ball and gives it everything, this could be where he finally breaks through.
Unlike Nadal and Federer, he does not have a mental problem with playing Djokovic as the pair grew up playing together as juniors. They are good friends and when they meet now, it is as if they were 13 again, the same strengths, the same weaknesses. It will come down to who deals with the pressure best, and at 9/2, compared to the same price for Federer and 4/1 for Nadal (which I have to say is tempting), the Scot is the man.
Outside of the top four, only Juan Martin Del Potro, the winner in 2009 and who could take on Murray in the quarter-finals has the class to win a grand slam right now, but he has been struggling in the past couple of months and I don't see him winning again just yet.
Mardy Fish has been playing his best ever tennis but he will surely only get to the semi-finals at best, while the likes of Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and Tomas Berdych are well capable of shocks, but getting over the finishing line seems too much.
With bet365 paying half the odds for the losing finalist, it is worth backing Murray each-way, while I suggest a saver on Djokovic, who remains the likeliest champion.
Please note that odds are correct at time of publication and are subject to change.
Simon Cambers is ESPN.co.uk's betting correspondent
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Simon Cambers
Simon Cambers is ESPN.co.uk's betting correspondant Simon Cambers is ESPN.co.uk's betting correspondant
